Private credit to the rescue somehow
$SPCX - SPACEX SIGNS $40 BILLION GPU FINANCING DEAL WITH APOLLO
SpaceX has entered into a binding commitment for a master finance lease with Apollo Global Management ($APO ), according to an SEC filing.
Apollo will purchase GPU pods and related equipment and lease them to SpaceX, with aggregate scheduled principal payments expected to total $40 billion.
The agreement is expected to close before year-end 2026.
The key takeaway: SpaceX is securing large-scale GPU infrastructure through lease financing, highlighting the enormous capital requirements of AI expansion.
mtn drew retweeted
I love Zuckerberg front running the Anthropic IPO just like Brin front ran the SpaceX IPO (which marked the top of the semi rally.) Tech Lords are ruthlessly opportunistic. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Just not big enough
$META announced plans to raise approximately $35 billion through two offerings:
> $22.5B in Class A common stock through forward sale agreements.
> $12.5B in depositary shares representing mandatory convertible preferred stock.
Interestingly, NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in purchasing up to $5 billion of Meta shares combined.
Meta is also planning a potential $60 billion offering program for its new nonvoting Class C shares starting in Q1 2027.
Together, the plans could provide approximately $95 billion in equity financing capacity as Meta prepares to spend $135B to $145B on capital expenditures in 2026.
I'm torn
On one hand, these have been looming for a long time now and their rate of deterioration has been very gradual. Markets might have become complacent after being a bear due to these catalysts got punished over and over.
On the other hand, markets are forward looking. Everyone is aware of these problems and they are pretty well understood at this point. If all this is going on and the market doesn't want to break down, maybe it just really wants to go up.
That being said, the market is very much riding on one trade right now (AI). And the AI complex is actively in retreat. It's obvious the driver is people losing confidence in the AI revenue story, but still.
My best steelman of the bear case is that maybe investors are still in denial and under the assumption that Trump could end this whole disaster at the snap of his finger if he wanted to. Couldn't tell you when they'll throw in the towel on this idea.
Not up for an Ackman-sized tweet, but this is what I'm seeing:
- Early voting is swinging massively towards Ds
- Ds are not friendly to AI and data centers
- Trump loses midterms, he is going to obliterate Iran
- Oil goes to $200, a genuine energy crisis
- Reserves depleted to get it down
- Credit spreads ripping higher
- The usual concerns about private credit/insurers
If stocks were ever to drop, it will probably happen in the next few weeks
Great episode
I found it interesting that although they discuss a little bit of macro stuff, there was not one mention of the situation in the Middle East
Obviously not the topic of the episode, but it just seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger deal
open.spotify.com/episode/405…
One year later...
$HYPE up 119%
@chameleon_jeff
Grok says this cash came from earlier equity sales, presumably from when mNAV was >1
*HYPERLIQUID STRATEGIES INCREASED ITS STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAM FROM $30 MILLION TO $100 MILLION
$PURR
AI profit margins converging to zero is good because Ant and OAI valuations will come way down and then there won't be nearly as much supply getting dumped on our heads...right?
right guys?
Big short squeeze / mean reversion candles on AAL and CCL yesterday. If those highs can't hold I think this trade is over.
out of this
looking at both the chart (price, vol action) and how valuations now are comparing to pre-war levels, i think i've squeezed out whatever edge i had here.
will reconsider if i think the outlooks is worsening even further. but even still i might try to express it through a different trade unless this ratio has reverted back down substantially.