CRE broker today, prev. REPE, lending | real estate, investing, tech, personal growth | here for life's shenanigans | occasional memes -- free CRE resources 👇
Los Angeles, CA
Joined December 2009
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Launching a free (commercial) real estate list of resources to the community here! 🙌
I've curated many of the best websites, podcasts, news sites, blogs, Twitter profiles, books, and more into a handy dashboard to reference
Read more below!
👇
avm858.notion.site/Commercia…
bullish for anthropic and openai
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected.
Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions.
Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent.
But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models?
We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem.
Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
This show doesn’t get talked about enough - for the uninitiated - reality tv where these celebs come in all hot shit and then get absolutely destroyed and look like total fools thinking they can go through specials forces training ‘lite’
FOX's ‘Special Forces’ Season 5 cast photos have been revealed. See below.
1. Matt Barnes, NBA Champion & Podcaster
2. Alycia Baumgardner, World Champion Boxer
3. Candace Cameron Bure, Actress
4. David Charvet, Entrepreneur & Actor
MORE: deadline.com/gallery/special…
This tax is such a disaster. If it passes, it's going to produce much less revenue and lawmakers will get addicted to the revenue and want to reup it.
Oh wait, you're going to run for office in 2030 and "take away peoples' healthcare" by NOT making this a permanent tax?
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible.
so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time).
polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it).
there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate.
supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right?
well as it turns out, they did.
a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative.
proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave.
just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues.
but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion.
so when you add it all up you get:
+ $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated)
- $69b in present value of lost future income taxes
= - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax
of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time.
and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes.
[1]: nber.org/system/files/workin…
Last few weeks has been crazy as a commercial real estate broker from managing difficult escrows, deals retrading, fired off listings, hired on new listings, & going into contract on two big deals with record pricing in their respective markets
Yin and Yang is what comes to mind
Austin Mudd retweeted
US has not spent $350B on Ukraine. It has spent $132B, $33B of that is money. The rest is $21B in loans, repaid from frozen Russian assets, $4B in humanitarian aid, and the vast majority, $74B is military equipment.
Half that equipment is new, made in the US. The other half is old stockpile equipment, which soon would have had to be demilitarized at great cost. The replacement equipment is made in the US, so the money stays in the US.
Meanwhile, the EU and European countries have spent a combined $271B, more than twice as much as the US.
Hurts drawing up a play call to his boy DeVonta Smith last night
Looks like #Bears LB T.J. Edwards listened in as Jalen Hurts gave the play call in the huddle — and then intercepted Hurts on that very play.
Correct take here. Dante had plenty of time to get down early and as a linebacker does, he lit up the runner
Sucks to see for Dante
The slide rule needs to go
Or any QB slide/going out fake outs should be 15 yard penalty otherwise DB/LBs always have impossible split decisions
Cmon Chase. Be serious. I hate that Dante got injured. As a former player I never want to see any of these young men get hurt.
But Dante and other QBs need to give themselves up earlier. Stop trying to squeeze every yard out of the scramble. Defenders are doing their job. QBs need to do theirs if they want protections of the slide.
Dang, if only there was the Department of Corruption Coordination that would protect the average joe with a few felonies
Then this department could enforce a MLS to eliminate such pocket pardons so all consumers have free access to browse for such Trump "Get-Out-of-Jail" cards
Rapper Boosie Badazz tells Lesley Stahl that he was led to believe that if he gave $600,000, he would be issued a pardon.
He was promised that Laura Loomer, Erika Kirk, Mike Johnson and Natalie Harp would advocate for his pardon.
"I just thought this is they way it's done."
Boosie is now suing the pardon broker in an attempt to recover at least half of the money.
I think people should stop hand waiving off the AI doomerism super hard, because look at some global events and real risks out there today. The debate is healthy to have
GTG-87001: Disrupting a Yemen-based guided weapons engineering cell using Claude to develop guidance software
We're publishing our most detailed threat intelligence report to date.
It covers how people tried to misuse Claude—for cyberattacks, influence operations, surveillance, biology, and building weapons—and how we found and stopped them.
We disrupted every operation in the report, and used the lessons from them to strengthen our safeguards. Where appropriate, we also shared what we found with authorities and other AI companies.
These cases are not typical: we’re highlighting some of the most sophisticated misuse we’ve seen. But they’re especially important to discuss, because they show us where AI misuse is headed, where our safeguards work, and where they need to improve.
We’re publishing this report so others can spot the same activity on their own platforms, and so we can give the public a clearer view of how emerging threats develop.
Read the report: anthropic.com/threat-intelli…
10 year about to blow past 5%, i'm raising my p(doom) to 20% that the bond market is going to cause a mass extinction even of delusional real estate and finance professionals
Grok bot is indeed, very interesting, but there's an enormous amount of paid influencer and x.com promoted marketing/astroturfing going on
It produced the most god awful codebase using Claude 4.5 Sonnet
just an absolute waste of time to un slop it
ANNOUNCING CLAUDE MICHIGAN
DISCOVERED THE WORLD'S MOST DIFFICULT MATH THEOREM WHERE 0 SECONDS IS ACTUALLY 1 SECOND
Austin Mudd retweeted
GPT-6-Astra: OpenAI's Fable-level Rottweiler.
In my review of GPT-5.6 vs Fable, I called GPT-5.6-Sol a rottwiler vs Fable a wise owl. Sol was persistent, but intelligence was behind.
With GPT-6-Astra, the intelligence level has gone up significantly, while persistence has been refined - it is less 'dumb persistent', but more 'look for creative solutions persistent.'
There was a bunch of tasks, where previous models sort of worked, but ultimately didn't end up with anything useful. Now with GPT-6-Astra, they just clicked - de-slopified and finally made sense.
Capabilities:
- Game development or 3D is basically is at incredible level. Maybe not quite AAA, but it is a massive jump
- Code optimisation - I had a bad vibe coded app and it cut my awful SQL code from 33k to about 1.8k without any loss of quality
- Code migration - with 5.5 it basically didn't work, with 5.6-sol, it worked but with a lot of debugging, with 6-astra, I basically didn't bother to check - it was all perfect. This is a big deal.
- Code Efficiency - I have been attempting to optimise FFmpeg - I got an average of 30% speed improvement, with some processes 2-3x faster. I am less sure of how this generalises, but shows promise.
- Competence - it has fundamental competence about simple-ish things like setting up my camera, fixing chrome, clearing disk - that previous models were mediocre at
- Computer use - just brilliant, feels solved
- Front end - the UI capabilities are a LOT better, but I wouldn't say they are frontier, Fable is better. Some annoying tendencies still exist (brackets, blocks of text), but at least it is usable and if you ask to match to an existing design scheme - it is brilliant.
Reasoning levels:
- This is a change - before OAI models were quite bad at lower reasoning, I just never went below High
- Right now, even Low feels pretty strong
- I still wouldn't say that higher reasoning aren't better, but if it gets pricy, definitely consider whether lower reasoning is enough, it doesn't suck anymore
Creativity:
- Problem solving - there's something about Astra that just approaches things in a more insightful way, Sol would feel rigid and unable to get past an obsticle.
- For example, it built me a little 'Air Hockey' game that you could play on a desktop, with each element being a shortcut, and it would interact with other files on my desktop. This requires re-imagining how different elements work and how one could be used in a different way. This is a refreshing change.
Interaction:
- Language - it is a model that feels very natural, I basically don't notice how it talks, which wasn't the case for Sol or many other models. It is clean, concise and understandable, I wasn't annoyed by anything
- 'Swear index' - I have a local 'benchmark' which counts how often I swear at an agent. It got to basically zero with GPT-6, it stopped doing dumb stuff almost completely
- In Codex it is very good at managing sub-agents, asking you questions (in a pop-up), it leaves notes for itself and for you about the findings - the whole experience is really quite pleasant
Hard stuff:
- I have tried maths problems - some worked (and were brilliant), but a lot didn't. So when you see the maths breakthroughs, know that it is still not a matter of just asking any question and getting an answer. It is mostly about fining the right problem it can actually solve.
- The quality of writing maths papers is still quite poor. It still doesn't seem to really understand what is interesting or important and mostly dumbs a lot of maths in the write ups. We need a paper writing skill urgently
- If you don't know an area it can still be unhelpful - if you can't point the model in the right direction, it would probably struggle. Like with other models, it is best that you have the foresight and knowledge of what you are ultimately doing
So is it better than Fable? It is close. Fable is an incredible model that can do a lot of the stuff that I described here and 5.1 especially smashes it on a lot of tasks. They are models of equivalent capability, but different 'shapes', so it depends more on the 'shape' of the model that you prefer.
Price of GPT-6-Astra is 2.5x that of Sol and now matches Fable. This is a lot. So the key thing I want to look out for is token efficiency vs Fable. It feels more efficient, but I haven't done enough side by side to know for sure. We have a nice 'average cost per real task' view on the Agent Mode and I want to see how that comes out and where on the pareto they sit.
It's a good model, and I am so happy that we have multiple models on the very top end of the capability. I hope we'll get more up there soon, from so many great labs.
Want to fix homeownership in America?
26 U.S.C. § 1221(a)(1)
"property held primarily for sale to customers in the ordinary course of a trade or business is excluded from being a capital asset, meaning profits are taxed as ordinary income rather than capital gains"
