US has not spent $350B on Ukraine. It has spent $132B, $33B of that is money. The rest is $21B in loans, repaid from frozen Russian assets, $4B in humanitarian aid, and the vast majority, $74B is military equipment.
Half that equipment is new, made in the US. The other half is old stockpile equipment, which soon would have had to be demilitarized at great cost. The replacement equipment is made in the US, so the money stays in the US.
Meanwhile, the EU and European countries have spent a combined $271B, more than twice as much as the US.
Austin Mudd retweeted
GPT-6-Astra: OpenAI's Fable-level Rottweiler.
In my review of GPT-5.6 vs Fable, I called GPT-5.6-Sol a rottwiler vs Fable a wise owl. Sol was persistent, but intelligence was behind.
With GPT-6-Astra, the intelligence level has gone up significantly, while persistence has been refined - it is less 'dumb persistent', but more 'look for creative solutions persistent.'
There was a bunch of tasks, where previous models sort of worked, but ultimately didn't end up with anything useful. Now with GPT-6-Astra, they just clicked - de-slopified and finally made sense.
Capabilities:
- Game development or 3D is basically is at incredible level. Maybe not quite AAA, but it is a massive jump
- Code optimisation - I had a bad vibe coded app and it cut my awful SQL code from 33k to about 1.8k without any loss of quality
- Code migration - with 5.5 it basically didn't work, with 5.6-sol, it worked but with a lot of debugging, with 6-astra, I basically didn't bother to check - it was all perfect. This is a big deal.
- Code Efficiency - I have been attempting to optimise FFmpeg - I got an average of 30% speed improvement, with some processes 2-3x faster. I am less sure of how this generalises, but shows promise.
- Competence - it has fundamental competence about simple-ish things like setting up my camera, fixing chrome, clearing disk - that previous models were mediocre at
- Computer use - just brilliant, feels solved
- Front end - the UI capabilities are a LOT better, but I wouldn't say they are frontier, Fable is better. Some annoying tendencies still exist (brackets, blocks of text), but at least it is usable and if you ask to match to an existing design scheme - it is brilliant.
Reasoning levels:
- This is a change - before OAI models were quite bad at lower reasoning, I just never went below High
- Right now, even Low feels pretty strong
- I still wouldn't say that higher reasoning aren't better, but if it gets pricy, definitely consider whether lower reasoning is enough, it doesn't suck anymore
Creativity:
- Problem solving - there's something about Astra that just approaches things in a more insightful way, Sol would feel rigid and unable to get past an obsticle.
- For example, it built me a little 'Air Hockey' game that you could play on a desktop, with each element being a shortcut, and it would interact with other files on my desktop. This requires re-imagining how different elements work and how one could be used in a different way. This is a refreshing change.
Interaction:
- Language - it is a model that feels very natural, I basically don't notice how it talks, which wasn't the case for Sol or many other models. It is clean, concise and understandable, I wasn't annoyed by anything
- 'Swear index' - I have a local 'benchmark' which counts how often I swear at an agent. It got to basically zero with GPT-6, it stopped doing dumb stuff almost completely
- In Codex it is very good at managing sub-agents, asking you questions (in a pop-up), it leaves notes for itself and for you about the findings - the whole experience is really quite pleasant
Hard stuff:
- I have tried maths problems - some worked (and were brilliant), but a lot didn't. So when you see the maths breakthroughs, know that it is still not a matter of just asking any question and getting an answer. It is mostly about fining the right problem it can actually solve.
- The quality of writing maths papers is still quite poor. It still doesn't seem to really understand what is interesting or important and mostly dumbs a lot of maths in the write ups. We need a paper writing skill urgently
- If you don't know an area it can still be unhelpful - if you can't point the model in the right direction, it would probably struggle. Like with other models, it is best that you have the foresight and knowledge of what you are ultimately doing
So is it better than Fable? It is close. Fable is an incredible model that can do a lot of the stuff that I described here and 5.1 especially smashes it on a lot of tasks. They are models of equivalent capability, but different 'shapes', so it depends more on the 'shape' of the model that you prefer.
Price of GPT-6-Astra is 2.5x that of Sol and now matches Fable. This is a lot. So the key thing I want to look out for is token efficiency vs Fable. It feels more efficient, but I haven't done enough side by side to know for sure. We have a nice 'average cost per real task' view on the Agent Mode and I want to see how that comes out and where on the pareto they sit.
It's a good model, and I am so happy that we have multiple models on the very top end of the capability. I hope we'll get more up there soon, from so many great labs.
Austin Mudd retweeted
Measure ULA's defenders are citing Q1 permitting data as "proof" multifamily development is "back."
But remember: a building permit is not a housing unit. It's an option to start construction.
And the data they're celebrating is actually evidence of distress. Let me explain.
Austin Mudd retweeted
If politicians really care about "housing for all" then they should make attempts to educate themselves how and why housing does or does not get built
This a back of napkin math of a typical LA deal
Would you give me your life savings to give you 0.93 - 1.07 times your money?
Austin Mudd retweeted
Actual quotes from President Trump:
Trump’s “victory timeline” claims.
Mar 3: "We won the war."
Mar 7: "We defeated Iran."
Mar 9: "We must attack Iran."
Mar 9: "The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully.
March 10: practically nothing left to target
Mar 11: “You never like to say too early you won. We won. In the first hour it was over.” Mar 12: "We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."
Mar 13: "We won the war."
Mar 14: "Please help us."
Mar 15: "If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."
Mar 16: "Actually, we don't need any help at all."
Mar 16: "I was just testing to see who's listening to me."
Mar 16: "If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."
Mar 17: "We neither need nor want NATO's help."
Mar 17: "I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO."
Mar 18: "Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."
Mar 19: "US allies need to get a grip - step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz."
Mar 20: "NATO are cowards."
Mar 21: "The Strait of Hormuz must be protected by the countries that use it. We don't use it, we don't need to open it."
Mar 22: "This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours. Open the strait"
Mar 22: "Iran is Dead"
Mar 23: "We had very good and productive talks with Iran."
Mar 24: "We’re making progress."
Mar 25: “They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.” Mar 26: "Make a deal, or we’ll just keep blowing them away."
Mar 27: "We don’t have to be there for NATO."
Mar 28: No major quote
Mar 29: Claimed talks were progressing
Mar 30: "Open the Strait of Hormuz immediately, or face devastating consequences."
Mar 31: Claimed a deal was "very close" and that Iran would "do the right thing"
Apr 1: "We’ll see what happens very soon."
Apr 2: Repeated that a deal was likely, while warning of continued strikes if not
Apr 3: "Something big is going to happen."
Apr 4: Said Iran must comply "immediately" or face further consequences.
Apr 5: "Open the fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."
April 6 :a whole civilization will die
April 7: total and complete victory
April8: objectives were met
A true disaster
Austin Mudd retweeted
Replying to @MattZeitlin
Almost 30% of the PG&E bill is now wildfire or storm related. Since 2019, almost 40 billion of wildfire related costs have been added to rates and rate base for the big three CA IOU’s. Most of our affordability issues are wildfire related.
Austin Mudd retweeted
I have a guest essay in @nytimes today about autonomous vehicle safety. I wrote it because I’m tired of seeing children die. Done right, we can eliminate car crashes as a leading cause of death in the United States
@Waymo recently released data covering nearly 100 million driverless miles. I spent weeks analyzing it because the results seemed too good to be true. 91% fewer serious-injury crashes. 92% less pedestrians hit. 96% fewer injury crashes at intersections. The list goes on.
39,000 Americans died in crashes last year. More than homicide, plane crashes, and natural disasters combined. The #2 killer of children and young adults. The #1 cause of spinal cord injury. We’ve accepted this as the price of mobility.
We don’t have to.
In medicine, when a treatment shows this level of benefit, we stop the trial early. Continuing to give patients the placebo becomes unethical. When an intervention works this clearly, you change what you do.
In driving, we’re all the control group.
Cities like DC and Boston are blocking deployment. And cities are not the only forces mobilizing to slow this progress.
It’s time we stop treating this like a tech moonshot and start treating it like a public health intervention that will save lives.
Link to article below.
👀 this video of Waymo cars evading crashes with people and vehicles. I especially note the ones that require it having a 360° view.
My sincere thanks to Alex Ellerbeck and @acsifferlin for their wisdom and sure hand in editing this piece.
Austin Mudd retweeted
LA’s Measure ULA passed with good intentions: tax high-value property sales to help low-income renters.
But the early evidence is sobering: transactions have collapsed, revenues have fallen far short, and housing projects are harder to build.
Austin Mudd retweeted
Here is a recap of the Ukraine situation, for those choosing to reject propaganda and continue seeking truth:
December 1994, Ukraine agrees to give up its nuclear arsenal in return for security guarantees from the US, UK, France, China and Russia.
February 2014, Russia invades and subsequently annexes Crimea, President Obama does next to nothing. War through weakness.
July 2019, Trump admin withholds $250 million in military aid to Ukraine to apply pressure to investigate alleged corruption by Hunter and Joe Biden.
February 2022, Russia invades a weakened Ukraine, world expects Zelenskyy to flee and Kyiv to fall within days. Ukrainians fight bravely for 3+ years, inflict hundreds of thousands of casualties on Russian army, weaken Putin politically.
U.S. has sent ~$70 billion in outdated military equipment to Ukraine since start of war, providing opportunity for U.S. military to modernize its weaponry. We’ve sent an additional $30+ billion in budget support, $75 billion in ancillary appropriations related to war.
~50,000 Ukrainians have died defending their homeland, protecting U.S. and Western interests in the process. Meanwhile, the U.S. President and V.P. are calling democratically-elected Zelenskyy a dictator and berating him in Oval Office in pursuit of a financial payoff.
The U.S. should be thanking Ukrainians, who have fought for our common interests with only modest financial support from a country with a ~$30 trillion GDP.
America can and will reclaim its backbone again soon, with better policy and messaging from common sense moderates.
Slava Ukraina.
Austin Mudd retweeted
City of Santa Monica is issuing an Evacuation Order for all areas of the city north of San Vicente. Evacuation Order: Immediate threat to life. This is a lawful order to LEAVE NOW. The area is closed to public access.
Updates: santamonica.gov
Austin Mudd retweeted
"A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons." —Hillary
Austin Mudd retweeted
From a million miles away, NASA captures Moon crossing face of Earth. (Yes, this is a real image)
Credit: NASA/NOAA
Austin Mudd retweeted
Started a new biz & hope you can help spread the word:
You all know I love RE deals & teaching. Have tried to combine my passions in different ways over the yrs, including on this feed.
The new biz, @reseedpartners, is by far my most ambitious try:
A strong group of co-founders & I are building what is effectively Y Combinator for real estate operators. (Not affiliated w YC, to be clear!)
Heard enough? **Go over to @reseedpartners, click the website link in the bio & add your email to the relevant list.**
More info:
We will: select cohorts of high-potential people, train them to hunt deals, provide them w $ to live, support them as they hunt, then provide GP co-invest $$ & LP $$$ to take deals down.
Over time, we will:
- help our operators build large, independent real estate businesses, &
- help our own investors build diversified portfolios of high-quality real estate in good markets, structured tax-efficiently, leveraged conservatively, & intended for long-term compounding
**If you are interested in partnering with us as an operator and/or as an investor, please go over to @reseedpartners, click the website link in the bio & add your email to the relevant list.**
In coming days, I’ll share much more about how @reseedpartners got started, who’s working on it, how it’s structured, & where it’s going.
Would sincerely appreciate likes / RTs on this post for reach. Thank you all so much.
Austin Mudd retweeted
Another refugee post (forgive me):
Have been helping a young Afghan fam chased out of Kabul by the Taliban.
Husband uses public transport to get to & from work, which takes hours.
If you’re able, pls join us in helping them buy a car (we’re giving $2k, via check).
Link below.
Austin Mudd retweeted
Last yr during @REconveneLA, @realEstateTrent offered to donate $20 / RT to a charity of my choice up to $15k.
I matched & we raised $30k for @BTSLosAngeles & Prep for Prep.
Shoe’s on the other foot now :)
$1/like of this tweet (to $16k), to “Trent”’s fav charity.
Let’s go!
Austin Mudd retweeted
[Sponsored content 😀]
@REconveneLA 2022 tix now available.
If you're on the waitlist, should already have an email (check spam!).
If you're not, can sign up at re-convene dot com.
Would appreciate likes / RTs, so people whose emails went to spam see this. Sincere thx.
Austin Mudd retweeted
HARD MONEY MONDAY
Hard Money Lenders make high-interest-rate (8-12%) loans secured by real estate
Last week I discussed lending tax deferred/free
But it’s all for not if you break IRS rules
Below are my ground rules to stay IRS compliant & a FREE BOOK GIVEAWAY! 👇👇👇
1/11
Austin Mudd retweeted
A thread on how I bought a house for 350k in LA & turned it into an income producing multi family property worth 870k+, making 2k+ a month with all my money back + 100k in one year
Austin Mudd retweeted
To honor the folks who have made Real Estate Twitter (ReTwit) what it is today, and keep spreading the word about the folks who share their unique knowledge daily, I will donate $20 for every ReTweet this gets.
$15k max, any charity @moseskagan chooses.
teapawt.net/i/lists/14176673248957…
Austin Mudd retweeted
HARD MONEY MONDAY
Want to understand how Hard Money Loans are made?
Hard Money Lenders make high-interest-rate (8-12%) loans secured by real estate
Previously on #HardMoneyMonday, I discussed Collateral File Assembly
Today I’ll discuss Title Review
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