Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
This Thanksgiving Break, I will be joining a group of Hokies headed to the Dominican Republic! We will be practicing our university motto "Ut Prosim" (That I may Serve) as we volunteer at a school. Here is our GoFundMe! DM me if you have questions.
gofund.me/a7d6cf538
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
this is how you do gold without looking like a tacky saddam hussein cheesecake factory
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
If we are to peer review the NWS procedure, we should, but we must do so without bias, without attention seeking, without snark or attitude, and only with facts and questions. Just like everything else. If we aren’t doing that we are just farming for engagement or ego trips.
I miss the old(er) days of storm chasing and weather.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Pro-NWS is when you mercilessly criticize an underfunded, understaffed organization to your enormous following
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
In the current political climate, including cuts to NWS and all sciences, our community (and those with a big following) should not be advocating for cuts or to privatize NWS. Shoot them an email, be a journalist and investigate what happened. Not constantly bash them every second you can non stop.
The past 24 hours over the Desert Southwest have been concerning from an NWS warning issuance standpoint.
We’ve had:
• warnings issued based on contaminated data
• a TOR for a left split (spinning the “wrong” way)
• several delayed/missed events (both tornadoes and giant hail)
• polygons that miss the actual circulation
• ongoing debris signatures that are missed
I’m pro-expertise and pro-NWS — when they win, we all win. But critiquing poor performance scientifically is, at times, important.
It’s tough to justify keeping 122 offices staffed for warning operations when consistency and quality are obvious problems. The case for centralized warning operations is getting stronger, which is both good and bad.
I’m working on a longer piece and am not going to prematurely release it before I make sure every detail is presented fairly and completely — but there is a deeper conversation that needs to be had.
If anyone has any specific examples (both from this event or otherwise) that you feel I should look into, DM me.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Pssst. Its mid October and a strong cold front is moving in this weekend. Temperatures could get down to 30 degrees. Strongest cold front of the year. Get your ass to the woods.🦌
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Remnants from Hurricane Isaias will impact the Ohio Valley this weekend. Breezy conditions will develop on Saturday as the system approaches, with the strongest winds Sat evening into early Sunday. Widespread rain and some storms possible as well, mainly Sat night into Sunday.
ALT Graphic showing a swath of 1 to 2 inches of rain from Hurricane Isaias this weekend.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Chicago is officially in the cone ahead of Hurricane #Isaias – at United States
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
I feel like I shouldn't have to say why privatizing radar access is a bad thing right?
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
The NAM gets another stay of execution.
Retirement date pushed until November 3rd. Same for the SREF and HREF.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Can't say I disagree with really any of this tbh even though I'm team extra-tropical. Solid post
Only comment on this Non-Tropical vs Sub-Tropical vs Tropical debate for the Nor'easter, but I don't know of many purely Non-Tropical systems over 25-26C SSTs that generate their own convection by dynamics of a well structured LLC and warm SSTs.
I'm not saying the system is tropical, but it's clearly acquiring some Sub-Tropical characteristics and it's broadly ignored. By the agency who should be giving this more evaluation than it is...
Let's also not pretend that we haven't seen dozens of these Non-Tropical to Sub-Tropical transitions marked well away from land over the years as at least having the potential to transition, if not fully having done so. That's the continued issue. The goal posts are always moving for systems like these, and for some reason it's the storms that make US impact that tend to have less leniency in classification. Which you would think it would be the opposite. It's not November, it's September and Non-Tropical systems FREQUENTLY acquire Sub-Tropical characteristics at this latitude. Why is it only when it's actually going to impact the CONUS that we go full classroom mode and err on the side of fully NT. This goes to the same issue of not having a recon in a borderline rapidly intensifying TS Edouard earlier this month along the the most susceptible coastline in the country for our energy industry. We have more resources, more data accessibility than ever to modernize the process of tracking these systems, yet the industry still behaves like its 2000. Why isn't there a recon in this system? It will be the most impact storm for the Northeast since probably Sandy(And to be clear I'm not saying this is Sandy). IMO it's a shortcoming that does the industry no good whatsoever.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Nuclear take this morning is I don’t think we are upset nor angry enough that a government agency is taking the NAM and HREF away from the general public for an inferior forecasting product. The downfall of the greatest weather enterprise the world has ever seen continues at the expense of our tax dollars, only to be replaced by private and influencer personalities that will eventually paywall their AI forecast discussions and warnings.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
[9:18 PM] The last severe warning has expired. Severe threat is quickly turning into a hydro threat as storm motions are slowing and torrential rain rates continue.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to form. Showers/storms will continue to move southeast this afternoon.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
Storms starting to develop across portions of west central Ohio and east central Indiana. These storms will continue to increase in coverage and develop east thru the afternoon into this evening. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong to damaging winds.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
The frenetic race to re-name Lake Ontario to "Lake America" is underway across the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Most of the agency's mapping has been changed already. Some pages/links still refer to Lake Ontario's internationally-recognized name.
NEW: The National Weather Service, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will be required to refer to "Lake America" in all forecast products.
The agency, which falls under the Department of Commerce, is bound by Executive Order 14422.
As such, the Weather Service now needs to adjust its software, and mapping interfaces, to modify Lake Ontario's moniker to Lake America for at least the next 861 days.
The National Weather Service states that "work is underway to update naming conventions as quickly as possible."
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
The National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York oversees marine forecasts for the entire U.S. side of what, since 1641, has been known as Lake Ontario.
But the National Weather Service can't say "Lake Ontario" anymore – per President Trump's Executive Order 14422, it's Lake America or nothing.
Today, the Buffalo office got a bit... creative... in referring to "our eastern Great Lake."
No directives were broken. The lake was never named.
Miami Valley Storm Warn retweeted
30 years ago this week, something unprecedented happened over the Great Lakes – "Hurricane Huron."
Nothing like it has been documented since.
It wasn't a hurricane per se, but it did exhibit a symmetric structure, was anchored to decaying/dissipated fronts, and even developed an eye. Nowadays, we'd probably call it "subtropical.” Subtropical cyclones were formally recognized by the National Hurricane Center starting in 1972, but didn’t start getting named until 2002.
Lake waters were around 65 degrees. They're usually at their warmest in September. That's not nearly warm enough to, in most scenarios, sustain a fully-tropical system – but it was VERY cold aloft, making the waters seem *relatively* warmer.
That's why the storm began to take advantage of those warmer waters, eventually transitioning to a warm core-ish cyclone. (Non-tropical lows have cold air at the middle. Tropical ones are "warm core.")
That's because the storm had begun extracting heat energy from Lake Huron. That caused air in the middle of the storm to expand upward, causing the upper atmosphere to bulge a little bit.
That's one way we know it was becoming tropical.
Much of its strengthening happened between the mornings of September 12-14, 1996 when the system was "vertically stacked." That means an upper-level low was present above the surface circulation.
Most non-tropical lows strengthen fastest when an upper-level low is *approaching* the surface disturbance – not when it's already overhead. That's another reason why we believe this system was subtropical.
Lastly, the "core" of the storm, complete with an eye, passed over buoy 45008. The air temperature actually warmed as the center passed, then cooled after. That's an indicator of a warm-core system.
We haven't seen a cyclone of this nature since. The closest comparison are the "medicanes" that sometimes develop over the Mediterranean. Generally speaking, the Great Lakes are too small and usually too cool for any tropical cyclogenesis. Plus it was believed a storm could never linger over the waters long enough for any sort of tropical development to ensue.
But – as we learned 30 years ago – surprises can happen... and a subtropical storm isn't impossible.
A great paper by Todd Miner, Peter J. Sousounis, James Wallman and Greg Mann was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2000. It's worth checking out.
