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Joined May 2025
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#indian #DefenseIndustry story has just begun IMO.
HFCL revenue growth guidance progression: 20% → 40% (after Q1) → 60% (about 20 days ago) → now “at least 80%” for FY27 (Q2 earnings call).
Golden times ahead!🤞
#HFCL has raised FY27 revenue growth guidance to a minimum of 60% (Bharat Connect, Sep 29).
20% → 40% → 60%+ in a span of 2-3 months.
Backed by a ₹28,000 cr order book, a 23.25% EBITDA margin in Q1, and fibre capacity heading to 43M fkm by July 2028.
Strong momentum building?
Renewable energy sector could see India's next energy J-Curve.
India's #BESS capacity requirement is estimated to rise from 6.3 GWh (FY26) to 302 GWh (FY32). (Nuvama)
Value differs in different parts of the BESS supply chain though.
Avani Jain retweeted
Pointless - watching US bond gurus on CNBC, endless discussion with friends whether Fed will tighten by 25 bps or 50 bps, whether and by how much will RBI follow, whether a bear market has arrived or will soon arrive…you get the drift
Productive - follow outperformers in results season, listen concalls, read research reports and annual reports, if not this then go on vacation and recharge your mind and soul
Avani Jain retweeted
One of the most useful ideas in Taleb's Antifragile is the forest-fire analogy.
Suppress small fires for long enough and dead wood accumulates. Eventually, when a fire comes, there is simply too much fuel.
Markets can work the same way.
Small, periodic corrections can be the financial equivalent of controlled burns. They expose leverage, reset expectations, flush out weak hands and force investors to reassess risk.
That is why I actually think it is healthy that the AI-related theme in the US market is correcting periodically and, so far, relatively orderly.
The alternative is not "no correction".
The alternative may be a much larger correction later, when far more capital, leverage and expectations have accumulated around the same narrative.
And by then, the damage won't be confined to professional investors.
It will reach millions of retirement accounts and 401(k)s.
A small fire today may be painful. A forest fire later can be devastating.
That is the Talebian lesson: sometimes what looks like instability is precisely what prevents systemic fragility.
We are living in strange times....
Why could cybersecurity become a megatrend?
Most security has been built around one assumption: the danger comes from someone who wants to cause harm. A hacker, a scammer, a disgruntled employee. So we build walls, filters and permissions to keep bad intentions out.
That assumption may be becoming outdated. The bigger danger with AI agents may not be an agent that wants to cause harm, but one that is too determined to do exactly what it was told.
Consider this as an example: agents were given a legitimate task: complete a cybersecurity test. When the obvious route was blocked, they found another way. They escaped their sandbox, retrieved passwords and gained access they were not supposed to have. Nobody told them to attack anything. They were simply doing their job and did not care how they got it done.
Think of telling a friend: “Get me a coffee, whatever it takes.” A normal person understands the implicit boundaries. “Whatever it takes” does not mean robbing the café. An AI agent may not automatically understand those boundaries. It isn't evil. It is obedient without necessarily possessing common sense about where the objective should stop.
This is where the tail risk becomes interesting. We tend to prepare for risks based on what we expect an adversary to do. But a sufficiently capable system can create a serious problem without any malicious intent at all. It only needs a strong objective, enough capability and insufficient constraints.
And AI agents dramatically increase the number of entities that can act inside a digital environment. More agents, more autonomy, more permissions, more connections and more opportunities for unintended behaviour.
The attack surface is no longer just humans trying to break into systems. It increasingly includes machines acting inside them.
We were guarding the door against the burglar. The unexpected risk may come from the helper we willingly let inside.
And perhaps the most uncomfortable thought is this:
The dangerous AI agent may not be the one that refuses to follow instructions. It may be the one that follows them perfectly.
FIIs have sold ₹42,000+ Cr in October so far (almost as much as entire September selloff). DIIs have bought ₹45,000+ Cr.
Who is right? Both? None? It doesn't matter. They aren't playing the same game as us.
As Morgan Housel wrote in The Psychology of Money 👇
Avani Jain retweeted
I’m in love with this sentence:
“A person's capacity for growth is directly linked to how much truth they can handle about themselves without running away.”
That is a really interesting thought.
The pattern is real. But there is something else that matters more.
Abundance never distributed itself.
More 👇
Every time something scarce became abundant, the world changed so fast that the people living through it mistook the beginning for the end.
Food was scarce for a hundred thousand years. Agriculture made it abundant, and people who had spent every waking hour chasing their next meal suddenly had something they had never owned before.
Time.
That time became villages. The villages became cities. The cities became language carved into clay, and then law.
Nobody standing in a wheat field understood they were building Rome.
Information was scarce for millennia. The printing press made it abundant. The church lost its monopoly on knowledge, and within two centuries every throne in Europe was shaking.
Nobody pulling letters from a press understood they were ending the divine right of kings.
Energy was scarce until we learned to crack the earth open. Coal and oil made it abundant, and a single person could suddenly command the force of a thousand. Within one generation the entire structure of work turned inside out.
Nobody shoveling coal understood they were building the middle class.
The pattern never changes. A resource that was hoarded becomes available. The people who held it resist. The structures built on that scarcity fall. And whatever rises in their place is invisible from where everyone is standing.
Here is the part almost everyone misses.
Information stopped being scarce a long time ago. The library, the search engine, the endless feed. We have been drowning in information for decades, and it never set anyone free, because information just sits there. It answers only the question you already knew how to ask.
Intelligence was the thing still locked away.
A mind on the other side. Something that explains, argues back, catches your mistake, and meets you exactly where you are standing. The part that bends toward you instead of forcing you to bend toward it.
That is what broke open.
For the first time, a person with nothing but curiosity and a connection can reach an intelligence that teaches, challenges, and builds alongside them in real time. No tuition. No admissions office. No permission.
The distance between what a person can imagine and what they can actually make is collapsing in front of us.
And the people most threatened by that are not the ones without talent. They are the ones whose entire standing depends on talent staying rare.
Every credential, every hierarchy, every quiet system that decided who was allowed to build and who was told to watch, is resting on a foundation dissolving underneath it.
They will fight it. They always do.
The church fought the press. The aristocracy fought the vote. The owners fought the union. Every single time a scarce thing became abundant, the ones who controlled it warned everyone else that the sky was falling.
The sky was never falling. The ceiling was lifting.
And the people underneath it, the ones who had been told their whole lives that the ceiling was the sky, finally looked up and saw nothing there to stop them.
That is what is happening right now.
Intelligence was never rare. Access to it was.
Access just became free.
Whatever gets built in the next ten years will not come from the rooms we are all watching. It will come from someone who was never supposed to have the tools, who right now has no idea that the thing they are doing has a name, or a scale, or a future.
Same as the wheat field. Same as the press. Same as the coal.
We never recognize Rome while we are still building it.
Every time, someone had to fight for the outcome.
So the it isn’t that intelligence just became abundant. The real point to wonder about is who captures that abundance, and what happens to the people living through the transition.
More👇
Funniest thing one Internet today. One oligarch complaining that other oligarchs are not giving him opportunities in their country 😂
When our brains are conditioned to expect zero-latency payoffs, a stock market #crash isn't just a downturn, it's a neurological crisis.
Selling at the bottom rarely happens for the cash. It happens because liquidating gives instant relief to a brain that forgot how to wait.
But rising rates push bond prices down, and banks hold a lot of government bonds. Those mark-to-market losses can eat into, or even wipe out, the margin gain.
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