aave is growing like a bank and paying holders like a startup
lending is my favorite topic in defi (yeah, boring guy), so i spent a morning reading aave q3 numbers and the drama around it 👀
the good part
- deposits +41% to $33.6B
- active loans +32% to $13.2B
- net income +50% QoQ to $4M, growing every month
- 10 V4 spokes opened, coinbase tokenized stocks live on base
the not so good part
- q3 revenue $18.9M, down 23% QoQ and down 50% from q1 ($37.9M)
- lowest quarter of 2026
- buybacks paused since april. still paused
why? april 18 kelp's rsETH bridge got exploited, aave froze rsETH markets and core markets went to 100% utilization - ~$3B USDT and ~$2B USDC u simply couldn't withdraw. aave contracts were fine btw, but nobody cares when your money is stuck
the drama
meanwhile ct says aave labs is slowly rugging the dao: front-end revenue story, $25M for operations + up to $17.5M bonuses ($5M of it for shipping an app), and now a new cayman entity which the dao is asked to pay for (again)
and on oct 23 stani announces aavenomics 3.0 - buybacks, staking, burns. no date (for now)
BUT
i don't think aave is "uninvestable". it's the biggest lending market in crypto and it survived something that would kill 90% of protocols. the problem is different - protocol value and token value are two different things, and aave holders got reminded about it very painfully this year
in the end: more deposits + less revenue + paused buybacks + labs paid first = token holders are last in line. aavenomics 3.0 can fix it, but i'll believe it when i see the first buyback tx onchain 🥸
would u buy aave on buyback news or wait for actual buybacks? nfa
Welcome to gamma exposure world my friend😭
I found a real money glitch in LP
what if I told you that you could earn over 100% with almost no risk?
the screen shows 438% APR for $TSLA
385% for $CRCL and 367% for $SPCX
the idea: collect LP fees while hedging your price exposure through perps
here’s how it works with a total bankroll of $1,000:
1. allocate $600 to LP
- choose a token/stable pair with a perp tracking the same underlying asset
- suppose the token costs $10, and your selected range requires 30 tokens and $300 USDC
- buy those 30 tokens on spot for $300 and deposit them into the LP alongside $300 USDC
2. keep $400 for short collateral and a margin buffer
- open a perp short for the same 30 tokens, with a notional value of $300
- specifically, the token portion of the LP
3. collect fees and monitor the hedge
- the LP earns fees while the price stays in range and there’s trading volume
- with positive funding, the short also receives payments
the LP composition changes: if it now holds 25 tokens, reduce the short to 25 too - if the token amount increases, adjust the hedge in the other direction
you can also explore this with larger memecoins
the point is to depend less on price direction and earn trading fees
but IL, price discrepancies and liquidation risk remain gains in an LP on another protocol won’t automatically top up your short’s margin
I open the LP position here:
- liquidityladder.app/r/danko4…
hedge RWA/meme:
- polymarket.com/dankoeth?via=…
- entropy.io/?r=danko
if i was paper team - I think I’d do the same, but the only question is why you decided to f up farmers? just make future emission cost more then it costs to farm now and you will avoid 90% of fud and hate you received
A note on transferability.
Papertrade is a complicated primitive, and managing it from a risk standpoint is a complicated problem. The PAPER token is far more integrated into the economics of the primitive than most tokens are in their respective protocols today, and, broadly, was designed to act as a counter insolvency incentive coupled with a rebate mechanism to losing traders. Market makers and exchanges are by far the two most profitable businesses in crypto, and our goal was to try and externalise as much of their margins back to users as possible. We are now just over a week into the life of papertrade and we are becoming increasingly confident that this is both possible, but also a likely outcome as agentic led software becomes the norm.
As it stands, the paper token traded as a perp becomes a leveraged bet on bankroll solvency - and being able to short bankroll solvency materially changes the payoff curve of a manipulation attack. The target number goes from the bankroll, to the bankroll + short side exposure on paper. We can, and do limit bankroll size specifically to control this payoff curve and ensure it never becomes existentially problematic, but external perp markets are not something we would have any control over if left to float of their own accord. For example, if our bankroll is $10m, an attack costing $15m manipulating the price of bitcoin or ether is not viable. You simply lose money. If however you were also able to put on $10m of PAPER short side exposure, suddenly an attack costing $15m is very viable indeed.
If we were to make the token transferable at this point, we are confident we would quickly enter a state too dangerous to allow any material exposure to be taken on papertrade, an end result that benefits no party beyond the wolves who have done the math on the short and are waiting in the wings with sharpened knives.
We would also like to thank the various perps teams who have reached out about pre-market listings for their understanding and patience regarding this issue, and especially to the paragon team who, despite jumping the gun on us, have behaved with the utmost integrity and transparency once a dialogue was opened.
Perps on PAPER will always act as a self-limiting exposure ceiling for a token with this type of utility, and we think it would be a shame to limit the growth of papertrade to the extent that allowing perps would necessitate. As such, at this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability.
Structurally, papertrade is limited by the quality of the data it receives from hyperliquid, but we strongly believe that hyperliquid has a very large part to play in the future of global exchanges, and expect their books to continue to thicken and strengthen over time.
A note on fees.
Papertrade launched with a deadband fee from entry of 0.2bps. This means you don't earn anything until the price has moved by 0.002% in your favour. Over the months before launch, we played around with many different curves and fee structures affecting exclusively positions closed very close to entry price in order to try and devise a structure that removed the edge against the bankroll low time frame scalp bots have, whilst also minimally impacting the traders around which and for whom the product was devised. We were never able to find anything we were absolutely happy with and so decided to stay with the 0.2bp deadband fee through launch. This has however meant we have had to be very restrictive when it came to certain parameters, such as OI caps.
Now, however, we have enough live data to fully understand exactly which strategies work, and to make the necessary changes to stop them. The changes we are making will have an on hours and off hours fee mode to account for the relative differences in liquidity the hyperliquid books see between these two time periods, and the ease with which low time frame moves are signalled. The changes we are making will only affect positions closed within 6bps of entry (0.06%) in on hours, and 10bps (0.1%) in off hours. Any trades closed above these threshold price shifts will see no change to their fees at all. On a look back to launch basis, these changes affect the profitability of bot strategies roughly 15x more than they do normal traders, for whom a very small proportion of overall winnings come from within this band.
These changes should serve to flatten much of the edge our microfee structure necessarily creates on low time frames, and will help with long term exchange sustainability. This should hopefully allow us to open up parameters such as OI caps a little more so those of you who wish to can put on the size you want to, when you want to.
It is possible these changes are still too lax, and that further revisions to this structure may be necessary going forwards. If so, we will notify users ahead of time.
A note on paper tokenomics.
In conjunction with the fee changes, we will also be implementing a change to the token issuance curve.
Going forward, every $1 lost mints a fixed share of PAPER's supply at that moment, roughly 0.1% of supply per $1M lost (the exact number depends on the mint rate at the time the contracts are upgraded). PAPER minting in and near insolvency will also change, switching from a flat 100 per $1 of loss, to a time weighted multiplier on the curve growing over time, effectively acting as the house running a discounted auction on its own future cash flows. This change also removes the risk of the paper-mint-straddle-attack, temporarily pushing the protocol insolvent by closing only the winning side of a large straddle position and then attempting to mint as much paper as possible.
In the immediate term these changes will only have a very subtle effect on PAPER minting, but in the long run will structurally change the outlook of the system beyond the first few weeks, serving to slowly dilute out older holders and leaving more recent users with an advantage. Reconstituting the PAPER system into something much closer to the exchange rakeback it was intended to be.
We have been very reticent to touch this particular aspect of the system for obvious reasons, but ultimately we believe that these changes provide all users with the optionality to take a smaller piece of a potentially much larger pie than the current dynamic might necessarily allow.
Other, miscellaneous notes.
These contract upgrades will include a few other contract changes, including the addition of builder codes so that builders can utilise papertrade in whatever capacity they choose to. This will be a whitelist only to begin with and we will have more for you later in the week on where/how this will be rolled out. A small change to contract permissions on the reward distributor and a change on how below bust closes are processed by the exchange are also included, largely to block gas griefing attacks.
These changes will be pushed to docs in full over the coming day, and we will further announce once the changes are queued into the timelock pending final security passes, scheduled to go live 24 hours after that point.
Final note.
We'd like to thank everyone that has tried out papertrade over the last 10 days. It has been a labour of love building this product and both of us have been taken aback at all of the positive feedback we have received. We'd also like to thank all those of you who have spent considerable time musing on the system we have built, and much of your advice has been taken onboard and will likely affect the colour of what papertrade becomes going forward. We know some of these changes will be unpopular with some, but we would not be making them if we did not feel them to be absolutely necessary.
- blurr, jez
Wow, okay, i missed latest news about papertrade when was posting it. Now there is no reason to farm it anymore, just a hope that sooner or later we will get our money back. Hope trading volumes don’t dry up and that it will continue to generate yield for all the participants. Praying for best, but feels like rug (how can it be another in crypto lol)
on oct 13 i tweeted "if your still farming perps in 2026 - its time to think about your life". two days later i was farming perps
so here is what happened, with real numbers (spoiler: the guys who were early are up 5x, i am not 🤡)
what is @papertrade_xyz
perp dex on hyperevm. 1000x leverage, no fees, no funding. your counterparty is one pool, aka the house. the twist: every $1 you lose mints you $PAPER. stake it and you get usdc from everything the house wins off degens
losers become owners of the casino. in 10 days stakers got paid $55.7M, so yeah, the hype was not about nothing
how smart people farm it
you dont need to actually lose. open long + short at the same time. one leg loses (mints PAPER), the other wins (protocol cuts ~13% of that profit). that cut is your only real cost, and hedged PAPER is ~7x cheaper than what a degen pays by getting liquidated
what one PAPER cost (hedged)
- launch hours: $0.0014
- oct 11: $0.0038
- oct 13: $0.0054
- today: $0.013
the mint rate drops as the pool grows: 100 PAPER per $1 lost at launch, ~10 now
what early farmers already got back in usdc
- first hours: ~5.5x
- launch day afternoon: ~3.6x
- day 2: ~1.1x
- day 3: ~0.9x
- day 4: ~0.6x
being early was the whole edge. again
BUT
all that yield is just degens losing, and they stopped losing as fast. staker pto ~$1.5M/day this week. volume is ~10x off launch day
entering today: payback in ~4 weeks if $5M/day comes back, ~100 days at the cur
what shill threads dont tell you:
- PAPER is non-transferable. transfers "in a later phase", no date. your only exit is dividends
- the price oracle is HL's mid. someone took $1.28M by moving it in the first 8
- a 2-of-3 multisig can change the rules (behind a 7-day timelock)
my own farm (for transparency and comedy)
spent $2k, got 143k PAPER. my own math said ~270k. i used 75x and waited for a bigger move, one leg got liquidated before "close all" fired, the other closed a minute later on the
bounce. paid 2x my own spreadsheet. so far ~$200 back
if you farm: 50x max, close both legs at ~1% move, dont be greedy like me
in the end
its not a "lottery with no losers". its an honest casino where you can buy a piount, and the discount shrinks every day while the house earns less. watch onenumber, daily staker payouts: above $4M farming makes sense, around $1M youre exit liquidity for the early guys
not financial advice, im in the position myself. who else farmed and what did your PAPER cost you? 👀
#papertrade #perp #hl #hyperliquid
on oct 13 i tweeted "if your still farming perps in 2026 - its time to think about your life". two days later i was farming perps
so here is what happened, with real numbers (spoiler: the guys who were early are up 5x, i am not 🤡)
what is @papertrade_xyz
perp dex on hyperevm. 1000x leverage, no fees, no funding. your counterparty is one pool, aka the house. the twist: every $1 you lose mints you $PAPER. stake it and you get usdc from everything the house wins off degens
losers become owners of the casino. in 10 days stakers got paid $55.7M, so yeah, the hype was not about nothing
how smart people farm it
you dont need to actually lose. open long + short at the same time. one leg loses (mints PAPER), the other wins (protocol cuts ~13% of that profit). that cut is your only real cost, and hedged PAPER is ~7x cheaper than what a degen pays by getting liquidated
what one PAPER cost (hedged)
- launch hours: $0.0014
- oct 11: $0.0038
- oct 13: $0.0054
- today: $0.013
the mint rate drops as the pool grows: 100 PAPER per $1 lost at launch, ~10 now
what early farmers already got back in usdc
- first hours: ~5.5x
- launch day afternoon: ~3.6x
- day 2: ~1.1x
- day 3: ~0.9x
- day 4: ~0.6x
being early was the whole edge. again
BUT
all that yield is just degens losing, and they stopped losing as fast. staker pto ~$1.5M/day this week. volume is ~10x off launch day
entering today: payback in ~4 weeks if $5M/day comes back, ~100 days at the cur
what shill threads dont tell you:
- PAPER is non-transferable. transfers "in a later phase", no date. your only exit is dividends
- the price oracle is HL's mid. someone took $1.28M by moving it in the first 8
- a 2-of-3 multisig can change the rules (behind a 7-day timelock)
my own farm (for transparency and comedy)
spent $2k, got 143k PAPER. my own math said ~270k. i used 75x and waited for a bigger move, one leg got liquidated before "close all" fired, the other closed a minute later on the
bounce. paid 2x my own spreadsheet. so far ~$200 back
if you farm: 50x max, close both legs at ~1% move, dont be greedy like me
in the end
its not a "lottery with no losers". its an honest casino where you can buy a piount, and the discount shrinks every day while the house earns less. watch onenumber, daily staker payouts: above $4M farming makes sense, around $1M youre exit liquidity for the early guys
not financial advice, im in the position myself. who else farmed and what did your PAPER cost you? 👀
#papertrade #perp #hl #hyperliquid
I was a vibe coder before AI
back in 2024 i was simply hiring a low-cost team of engineers and some other guys and we were building funny stuff, but that type of vibe coding was more expensive then 200$ claude
Getting back to building after a long gap period is a struggle, feels like your learning to walk again. Feels like back in a days everything just seemed to fall into place and went very smoothly, now really need to put effort, more then before, but im getting on a track, news soon...
everybody is looking for MOAT, but real MOAT is your swag and amount of effort you put in, keep going!
Ortomich retweeted
Hello world! Something new is preparing for you... you haven't seen anything like it before
Noticed one very stupid take for several times today
"People are now reverse engineering everything. Imagine they will start reverse engineering security stuff. We gonna be cooked!!!"
The most f stupid take ever, if you have a bit of understanding of what is reverse engineering - you will never say anything like above
What are your thoughts?
About what I started to build...
Imagine a perp platform on which you can not be liquidated, like never, long or short, you will be never liquidated but will have your positive pnl in case market goes in your direction
Feels illegal, but it will be live soon 🥸
Can somebody explain why there is that much hype around @papertrade_xyz? Like i understand that it is kinda fun what they did, but feels like too much hype or im not getting smth👀
I understood that i was trying to post on twitter just to post on twitter. From today i will have a purpose, got an idea of a funny thing i can start build in public
More info soon...
#hyperEVM #hl #hyperliquid
adhd 67 polymarket ai trading for ipad kids be like:
This guy built an HFT bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $8
Result: +$243,619
His bot trades 5- and 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets using a directional latency strategy with fast position switching:
1. It looks for latency between external crypto markets and Polymarket
It gets the underlying price from external sources and tracks momentum, acceleration, order-flow imbalance, and distance from the starting price of the current window
Based on this data, it constantly recalculates its own fair probability for Up and Down
2. It trades mispricing before Polymarket fully reprices
If the external market has already moved, but the outcome price is still lagging, the algorithm sees an edge and starts building a position
3. It quickly changes direction and dynamically hedges the old position
If the signal reverses, it can sell the old side or start accumulating the opposite outcome, constantly rebuilding its net exposure
His Polymarket nickname: nj23adsknml3
You can build your own trading bot here:
join.horizon.trade/retrovali…
(A trial period will be available after registration)
This guy’s edge is built on speed. The bot tries to detect changes in external market prices before they are fully reflected on Polymarket, then quickly rebuilds its position after every new signal
It repeats this micro edge thousands of times and keeps growing its capital
feels like there is no such meta in retail, but in in enterprise crypto there is definitely a regulations meta and quest of attracting as much institutional funds as possible










