Sophia Harper

Everyone’s calling this the end of the AI trade. I think it’s a leverage hangover — not proof the thesis is broken. We’ve seen roughly a week of meaningful selling. Nasdaq is off its highs, semis have taken a harder hit. The real question isn’t whether these stocks have fallen enough. It’s whether earnings can catch up with expectations. Watching: $AMD $SMCI $WDC $STX $COHR $LITE $AAOI $NRG $VRT $APLD Three things matter next: • Inflation and the path of rates • AI capex vs. actual returns • Earnings, margins, and forward guidance If spending keeps growing but profits don’t follow, the market has a bigger problem. No need to nail the bottom. Scale in selectively and let the numbers do the talking.

CXMT headlines are hitting memory again, but the market is not yet pricing a broader AI infrastructure breakdown. $MU, $SNDK, and $WDC remain under pressure, weighing on Nasdaq, while the Dow continues to show relative strength supported by bank earnings and energy exposure. The key question is whether weakness remains isolated to memory or begins to spread across the broader AI infrastructure stack. Key areas to monitor: Optical & connectivity infrastructure $CRDO $ALAB $MRVL Relative outperformance versus memory would suggest investors are distinguishing China-related DRAM competition from the interconnect layer required to enable AI compute. AI compute & surrounding infrastructure $NVDA $AVGO GPU and ASIC deployments still depend on networking, optical interconnect, power, and cooling. Sustained relative strength here would support the view that the broader buildout remains intact. Power infrastructure $CEG $VST Energy remains a beneficiary of data center expansion and elevated power demand tied to AI capacity investment. At this stage, the evidence points more toward an isolated memory adjustment than a broader AI capex concern. CPI tomorrow is the next macro catalyst, with core inflation more relevant than the energy-driven headline for rates and valuations. Overall, the market is currently testing the durability of AI infrastructure demand beyond the memory complex.

Everyone’s treating the CXMT headline like the AI buildout is over. The tape disagrees. Memory is getting hit again premarket — $MU $SNDK $WDC $SKHY all red. Dow green on the banks and a little oil relief. Nasdaq still heavy. Same split as yesterday. Broadcom CEO called a lot of AI money “casino gambling.” People are running with it. Doesn’t change the fact that every GPU or ASIC still needs power, cooling, and optical interconnect before it turns on. That layer doesn’t get canceled by a denser DRAM cell out of China. Same stack I’m watching: $CRDO $ALAB $MRVL $NVDA $AVGO $MU $SNDK $CEG $VST Banks reporting. $JPM mixed. Useful for the consumer and rate picture, doesn’t touch hyperscaler capex. CPI tomorrow — headline will look ugly on energy, core is the one that matters. Scare is real for pure memory names short-term. Rest of the stack is still getting paid. Watching whether the open holds relative strength in the optics/power names or if the selling broadens.

Everyone is still buying the AI chip leaders. I’m watching the companies that have to get paid before those chips even turn on. The real bottleneck is moving data, packaging, and light — not just the GPU. Current watchlist: $CRDO $ALAB $AMKR $ONTO $POET Revenue growth, margins, and execution matter more than the headlines right now. Which one are you actually watching?