suffers from constant migraines; psychic powers are unleashed when the pain becomes unbearable
Horizontal Bar Chart Land
Joined February 2024
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People said $SIRI wouldn’t hit their FCF targets meanwhile the company has raised 2025 FCF guidance twice this year.
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
I have a friend who got interested in investing around 2016 & would mostly buy whatever I was buying at the time. Unlike me, he never sells. He just looked at his account.
$BRK.B +184%
$WFC +153%
$LIND +693%
$LNG +794%
$APPL +783%
$KKR +289%
$NMM +1,760%
$UNP +278%
Never sell.
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
My first members-only special situation closed today. $PERF paid $2.00 cash. +3% in 9 days from publishing (SPY -1%). I expected it to close in early November, so I’ll take it.
The write-up is now free to read:
rockwoodnotes.com/members-on…
Posted 3 members-only special situations past week. One US-listed, two int’l, three industries.
If they close, $4k in each could cover cost of rockwoodnotes.com membership.
If they don’t close, well…you know.
Will make public after they play out.
Not investment advice
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
Some things I’ve been looking at recently:
$AAME trades @ ~5x (2025) EPS. 0.25x TBV. Bad corp gov. Thought it might go dark but just filed 2025 10k/a. Own minuscule amount for fun < $1.20/sh.
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
Posted 3 members-only special situations past week. One US-listed, two int’l, three industries.
If they close, $4k in each could cover cost of rockwoodnotes.com membership.
If they don’t close, well…you know.
Will make public after they play out.
Not investment advice
This tweet actually makes zero sense.
There are two conflicting ways to think about long-term investing.
On one side you have Buffett who is very conservative and will not invest in anything he doesn't have high confidence in.
Buffett will throw most stocks in the too hard pile rather than guess about the future.
On the other hand though, you have a more probabilstic way to think about long-term investing. This is closer to how Bill Miller thinks about investing, exemplified by his very early $AMZN bet.
An investor here may take positions whenever they feel like the risk/ reward payoff is strongly skewed in their favor.
That though means taking positions where there could be material downside risk, but the upside risk is so fantastic it can be considered to be justified.
This can lead to a bit of investor schizophrenia because you may want to follow Buffett by looking for a large margin of safety, but a lot of investments with large upside will not offer you that. Instead, the investor employing the second strategy can only reduce risk with lower position sizes and higher diversification.
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
I found a stock in my old trades that I had zero memory of owning. I went back and figured out what it was, and it was a better story than I could’ve imagined.
A post-bankruptcy microcap that 24x’d (and no, I didn’t earn that).
Hope you enjoy.
rockwoodnotes.com/retail-hol…
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
Multiples weren’t silly. People are just learning what a discount rate is.
"Interest rates are like gravity in valuations. If interest rates are nothing, values can be almost infinite. If interest rates are extremely high, that's a huge gravitational pull on values." - Buffett
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
News of $FDS demise continues to be greatly exaggerated.
Top line growing. FCF came in marginally above what I expected. Will watch margins but not concerned so far.
Pie Chart Abolitionist retweeted
At Berkshire’s 2024 meeting, Buffett recalled finding a Wisconsin railroad in a Moody’s manual that “…had a bond that was actually the common stock, and they had a common stock that was actually a bond.”
I looked into how it worked. Free to read.
rockwoodnotes.com/gb-w-buffe…
