Rockwood Notes (@RockwoodNotes) profile picture

Rockwood Notes

@RockwoodNotes

Stocks & Stories | Turning every page

rockwoodnotes.com/
Joined January 2025
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  • Followers1.1K
$OMC reports Oct 22. Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate. 2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.
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I have a friend who got interested in investing around 2016 & would mostly buy whatever I was buying at the time. Unlike me, he never sells. He just looked at his account. $BRK.B +184% $WFC +153% $LIND +693% $LNG +794% $APPL +783% $KKR +289% $NMM +1,760% $UNP +278% Never sell.
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Anyway I’m trying to convince him to sell everything and buy $OMC and then show me in another decade.
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Rockwood Notes retweeted
Colin King (@valuedontlie) profile picture
Colin King
@valuedontlieOct 28
“Cyclicals are like blackjack: stay in the game too long and it’s bound to take back all your profit.” Peter Lynch
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Have been eager to read this one.
Karst (@KarstResearch) profile pictureKarst
@KarstResearchOct 27
New piece out today. Discount to NAV idea with buybacks and dividends below NAV and demonstrated track record of: - Growing NAV per share. - Exiting investments at attractive MOIC / IRRs. - Returning Capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Cash. No debt.
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Was revisiting my old $RIG thread. Rates were close on the short end of the curve, but assumptions ended up being too optimistic, especially margins. OTOH, capex was a lot lower.
Pie Chart Abolitionist (@piechartdenier) profile picturePie Chart Abolitionist
@piechartdenier20 May 2024
Thought about getting back in $RIG. Hasn’t gone anywhere in the year+ since I was last in. But upside today less than before imo, even though they crossed that $500k contract mark. Doesn’t seem like the most attractive opportunity out there (plug $WBD)
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My first members-only special situation closed today. $PERF paid $2.00 cash. +3% in 9 days from publishing (SPY -1%). I expected it to close in early November, so I’ll take it. The write-up is now free to read: rockwoodnotes.com/members-on…
Perfect Corp (PERF)

Perfect Corp (PERF)

Turning every page on the Pritzkers

rockwoodnotes.com
Rockwood Notes (@RockwoodNotes) profile pictureRockwood Notes
@RockwoodNotesOct 17
Posted 3 members-only special situations past week. One US-listed, two int’l, three industries. If they close, $4k in each could cover cost of rockwoodnotes.com membership. If they don’t close, well…you know. Will make public after they play out. Not investment advice
Rockwood Notes

Rockwood Notes

Stocks & Stories | Turning every page

rockwoodnotes.com
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$OMC another quarter of organic top line growth, profits and margins going up, shares outstanding going down. Synergies on track. Boring. Predictable. Resilient. ~6x 2028e FCF.
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circlace (5029.T) being bought for ¥2,020 per share cash. Board recommending shareholders sell. Two major shareholders (63% of shares) have agreed. Last close before announcement was ¥950. Big premium to a not cheap-looking stock.
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Reminder, rockwoodresearch.com is a free website with event monitor, insider transactions, 13-f's etc. No paywall. Putting out some updates to reduce errors / improve summaries. If you have suggestions (looks, features, bugs etc), lmk. Or maybe we all just use Claude now.
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Some things I’ve been looking at recently: $AAME trades @ ~5x (2025) EPS. 0.25x TBV. Bad corp gov. Thought it might go dark but just filed 2025 10k/a. Own minuscule amount for fun < $1.20/sh.
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more replies
I did post a few members-only special situations I thought were attractive. One is about finished now.
Rockwood Notes (@RockwoodNotes) profile pictureRockwood Notes
@RockwoodNotesOct 20
$OMC reports Oct 22. Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate. 2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.
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And, of course, my largest holding is $OMC, which I call my narcan that keeps me from buying worse ideas (like everything I just tweeted about). Looking forward to results tomorrow and stock continuing to go +/- $10 around $80 for eternity.
Rockwood Notes (@RockwoodNotes) profile pictureRockwood Notes
@RockwoodNotesOct 20
$OMC reports Oct 22. Pre acq, OMC was doing $1.5B FCF, IPG $1B. $2.5B combined. Subtract $120MM from divestitures = $2.38B run rate. 2026(e) cost synergies $900MM. Est. cost to get them $250MM. Assume 60% of $650MM savings drops to bottom line (FCF) = $390MM on top of $2,380.
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