Our Deep Research AI has been on a tear the past couple weeks. 700,000+ queries since Oct 2025 Powering 13 partner protocols, running 24/7 TODAY: We're opening it up for anyone to use, visit factsai.org and get set up. • Create multiple API keys (teams, agents, products) • Track historical queries/usage per key • Flat pricing: $0.01 per query In the next few weeks, we'll integrate more protocols improving the model as we go 🧠

On October 11, Mbappé was 1.8% to win the Ballon d'Or He is 22% this morning Not one vote changed in between The award covers August 2025 to July 2026, so Sunday's Clásico isn't even in the window The result has been locked for four weeks Polymarket has kept trading it Polymarket, after voting closed vs now ＞ Mbappé: 1.8% low on Oct 11 → 22% ＞ Yamal: 60% peak on Oct 1 → 10% ＞ Kane: 32.6% low on Oct 1 → 68% Each move is either noise or information about an answer that already exists 2024 is the precedent Vinícius was 87.5% on ceremony morning, and a list on X billed as the leaked result had him winning By mid-afternoon he was 5.7% Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony in Paris, and Rodri won In 2025, Dembélé was the morning favorite at 76%, and he won Two ceremonies is too few to call a base rate This year none of the top three is staying home Fabrizio Romano reports Mbappé, Kane and Yamal will all attend At 68% Kane is still the clear favorite At 22% Mbappé is about a one-in-five shot The ceremony starts tonight at 20:00 UTC in London Is Mbappé's run from 1.8% to 22% information or noise?

The S-1 didn't drop Friday Anthropic's November IPO is still possible, with less time to get there Anthropic submitted a draft S-1 confidentially in June Under SEC policy, the S-1 has to go public at least 15 days before the roadshow Yahoo Finance reported the filing could come as soon as Friday Reuters reported the roadshow was planned for the week of Nov 9 For a Nov 9 start, the S-1 had to be public by Oct 25 EDGAR shows no public S-1 as of Sunday A filing on Monday still allows a roadshow from Nov 10 A filing on Oct 30 means no roadshow before Nov 14, a Saturday Nov 26 is Thanksgiving Polymarket, Friday morning vs now ＞ Nov 20: 58% → 22.5% ＞ Nov 25: 68.5% → 53% ＞ Nov 30: 73% → 53% ＞ Dec 31: 84.5% → 75.5% Nov 20 and Nov 25 are thin, $20,000 and $11,000 traded Nov 30 has $472,000 traded These markets resolve when shares start trading Does the S-1 land next week, or does the IPO slide into December?

We covered ethereum:0x6c5ba91642f10282b576d91922ae6448c9d52f4e on the Polyfactual stream 2 weeks ago, it's already up over 150% We think private AI will be a huge narrative in the coming cycle. NEAR and Venice AI already have the Phala stack integrated. We broke down the mechanics and use cases behind Phala and how it's bullish momentum could continue.

A callback to our interview with @morganlai, where she shared one of the most insightful observations about prediction markets right now: "Prediction markets don't have a liquidity problem. They have a discovery problem." Pm liquidity is fundamentally a distribution issue. Unlike stocks or memecoins, prediction markets are tied to specific events, interests, and moments in time. The challenge is getting the right markets in front of the right people at the right time. @arespro is building to solve exactly this.

Trump's approval hit new lows in two national polls Polymarket had already priced it in Democrats to win the House 91% a week ago → 91% now 36% of voters approve in the Fox News poll, Oct 9-12 The lowest Fox has found in either of his terms 34% of adults approve in the NBC News poll, Sept 28-Oct 12 Registered voters want Democrats to control Congress, 55 to 45 The Senate is the closer race Democrats are at 65%, up 1 point on the week Also in the news ＞ Early voting opens in Texas today ＞ Trump rallies for Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas tonight ＞ The Justice Department sued California over mail ballots it says went to likely noncitizens California says the government hasn't shown evidence ＞ NPR reports record midterm fundraising If new lows in approval can't move the House price, what would?