A callback to our interview with @morganlai, where she shared one of the most insightful observations about prediction markets right now: "Prediction markets don't have a liquidity problem. They have a discovery problem." Pm liquidity is fundamentally a distribution issue. Unlike stocks or memecoins, prediction markets are tied to specific events, interests, and moments in time. The challenge is getting the right markets in front of the right people at the right time. @arespro is building to solve exactly this.

Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting and Aston Villa are each priced near 80% to win tonight All four winning together is priced at about 41% Less than a coin flip All 9 Champions League home teams are favored tonight on @trylimitless Their prices add up to 5.65 home wins out of 9, or 63% In the league phase's first two seasons, home teams won 148 of 288 games About half Four lopsided games explain the gap ＞ Inter to beat Shakhtar: 81.1% ＞ Real Madrid to beat Leipzig: 80% ＞ Sporting to beat LASK: 79.2% ＞ Aston Villa to beat Viking: 79% The other five are far from safe ＞ Betis to beat Feyenoord: 61.5% ＞ Brugge to beat Lens: 53.6% ＞ Bayern to beat Arsenal: 44% ＞ Lille to beat Galatasaray: 44% ＞ Como to beat Man United: 42.6% All 9 favorites winning: about 1% How many of the 9 home teams win tonight?

Republicans need 3 of 7 Senate races to keep control. Democrats need 5 of them That math is right. It also counts Kansas as safe Republican control is priced at 36.5% on @trylimitless Republicans already have 31 seats that aren't up this year The 7 are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas Give them every race outside the 7 where they're favored, and they're at 47 Winning 3 of the 7 gets them to 50, with Vance breaking the tie Run today's odds race by race, and they win 3 or more of the 7 almost half the time So 36.5% looks cheap Until you check the seats that math calls safe In Kansas, Roger Marshall's odds slid from 70.5% to 61.5% in a week. He's still favored, but that's about as tight as Ohio and Texas In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is at 28.5% against Pete Ricketts South Carolina is 84.5% Republican, not a lock And New Hampshire, one of those 7, is 89.5% Democratic Count all 35 races and Republicans average about 48 seats, 2 short of 50 If each race moves on its own, they keep the Senate about 25% of the time The real Republican case is that the races move together One polling error in their favor could flip several races at once By rough math, the tighter that link, the better their odds, from about 25% up to about 40% 36.5% sits in the upper half of that range Will this map move as one, or will Republicans have to win it state by state?

Many prediction markets simply aren't worth trading today. You might spot a 3¢ edge, but with capped upside, the return isn't enough to justify the trade. @Lattica is currently building one of the best tools to change that. From our talk with @SteveFlanders22 and @wkflanders

Some of the Day 2 Highlights consisted of speakers such as Jason Wallach from Bruce markets who spoke on the growth numbers alongside Steve Quirk, August last year vs August 2026 went from about 22 million shares traded per night to 109 million and notional volume from about $1.2 billion to $5 billion Roughly a quarter of those shares are retail trading with retail. Quirk also said the busiest overnight print is Sunday 8pm ET, because two days of news land at once. He also put Robinhood at 28 million customers, half of them new to a brokerage Cathie Wood, on the Ventures panel, marked the private-markets product in public. What this means is that, Robinhood already sells two funds, RV1 and RV2, that own slices of private companies such as OpenAI, Databricks, and Stripe. You do not have to be an accredited investor to buy them, you can buy or sell them Cathie is basically saying those funds were trading 10 to 15 percent above the value of the companies inside them. A share backed by $100 of companies was changing hands around $110 to $115. Shiv Verma then said a band of 10% below that value is where they want it because above that, the buyer is not getting a better claim on OpenAI or Stripe. They are paying other shareholders a markup, because the fund can be sold any day and a private company stake cannot Tom Sosnoff then closed the day on longevity, and said he will not promote perps, crypto or tokenization until the liquidity is actually there Someone from the floor of about 1500 people then asked on the possibility of an API beyond MCP standard, in which VP of Product, @abhishekf96 said they have been looking into it. This sums up the Day 1 and Day 2 Recap for the Hood Summit of this year's edition. See quoted tweet for Day 1 recap!

Robinhood’s third annual HOOD Summit, themed “Engines of Creation” begins on Tuesday, September 29th, where @vladtenev will deliver a keynote and unveils new products aimed at active users of the Robinhood eco Day 2 follows on Wednesday, September 30, with another full day of sessions from Robinhood executives and industry guests including Cathie Wood, David Hoffman of Bankless, and Tom Sosnoff. Both days will be livestreamed on the Robinhood app, YouTube and X. The timing of this particular summit matters because the company is coming into this event after a stretch of product and positive regulatory news ranging across Robinhood Chain, Tokenized assets available in more than 120 countries, Agentic Trading for AI-connected accounts and the SEC’s Innovation Exemption for tokenized stocks. The Summit is where Robinhood is expected to show what that stack means for everyday traders, rather than only for the brokerages