Real-time odds, breaking headlines, and data-driven insights that cut through the noise. Newsletter coming soon. Livestreams every Tuesday, Thursday & Sunday.
Nevada, USA
Joined September 2025
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At PredictorsReport, we foresee a shift in how news is delivered. Instead of endless debate or partisan spin, people will increasingly turn to markets for one simple answer: What are the actual chances this happens?
Prediction markets represent a new way of understanding the world. Even for everyday people who never place a single bet, they provide something that’s becoming increasingly rare: a sense of certainty in an uncertain world.
Maybe someone’s girlfriend wants to see the odds of Taylor Swift getting married this year. Maybe someone who wants to see the odds of a major geopolitical event in the area they live.
People are wired to understand numbers. Odds just make sense. A headline can spin a story, but “45% chance” or “80% likely” is instantly clear. That number sticks in your head.
Prediction markets are real time probabilities shaped by collective intelligence and updated with every new piece of information. They are a constantly shifting our reflection of reality.
That shift will fundamentally change how information is consumed, trusted, and acted upon.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump orders another lethal strike on a drug-trafficking boat in the Caribbean — killing four men aboard.
The market on whether Trump would hit “another drug boat by Oct 15” is confirmed at 99%
🚨 NEW MARKET: Mr. Olympia 2025 Men’s Open Winner 🏆
Polymarket just listed odds on bodybuilding’s biggest stage. Current favorites:
•Hadi Choopan – 35%
•Samson Dauda – 28%
•Derek Lunsford – 21%
•Brett Wilkin – 20%
Traders leaning toward Choopan, but Dauda is close behind.
Market’s still small but could heat up as the stage gets closer. 💪
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PredictorsReport retweeted
New Accuracy Research on Polymarket
TLDR:
Polymarket:
- has a Brier score (stats method of measuring forecasting accuracy) of 0.0565, on par with the best predictoors in existence.
- is getting more accurate over time as more liquidity comes online
- volume boosts from one-off events like elections spread out into other markets after the big event ends
- as expected, there is a linear relationship between volume and accuracy: more volume = more accurate
I just posted a new @Dune board with new insights into @Polymarket's accuracy.
This board goes more in-depth, analyzing:
🎯 The accuracy of PM's odds
⏳ How overall accuracy is trending over time
💰 How accuracy is impacted by total liquidity
(Link in next tweet)
1/11
I’m surprised more people aren’t farming Polymarket rewards. It’s basically free money if you keep cash in the order book and make sure your orders aren’t filled. Minimal downside, steady upside.
Taylor Swift pregnancy before marriage is going crazy!
Do you think Travis Kelce could come through for the win? 🤔
US Department of Labor to delay Job loss report due to government shutdown.
ADP reports that private payrolls have dropped by about 32,000 jobs.
Your daily reminder that prediction markets are for EVERYONE.
THE SWIFTIE STREAM - LIVE WEDNESDAY 7PM PST
Joined by a Swiftie who has never heard of prediction markets but has:
>Attended the Eras Tour concert TWICE
>Attended the 1989 World Tour concert
>Attended 40 total concerts in the past year
>Made me money
teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/1YpJkkMwq…
📊 Prediction markets are moving fast today. From the Fed to the shutdown standoff to Trump–Putin odds, here’s your market rundown for Oct 1: 🧵
3. Jobs Report
Will the U.S. add between 0–25k jobs in September?
📈 41% (+16)
Markets price in weak hiring ahead of Friday’s jobs report, a key test for the economy.
🚨Breaking🚨
78% chance of Israel raiding the Gaza Aid Flotilla today.
Reports today of the Flotilla being encircled by a warship
What do you think?🤔
Lisa Cook’s Fed confirmation odds on Polymarket collapsed from ~26% to just 2% after the Supreme Court just ruled she will keep her seat pending oral arguments in January.
With no resolution before year-end, the December 31 market is effectively dead.
Prediction market adoption has been anything but flat. Weekly users surged past 200k during the 2024 election cycle, then dropped as the hype cooled. But the real story is what happened next 👇
Now in late 2025, activity is rebounding. Weekly users are back near 150k, fueled by the government shutdown standoff, Venezuela tensions, and even a viral South Park episode that introduced prediction markets to new audiences.