Real-time odds, breaking headlines, and data-driven insights that cut through the noise. Newsletter coming soon. Livestreams every Tuesday, Thursday & Sunday.
Nevada, USA
Joined September 2025
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Taylor Swift pregnancy before marriage is going crazy!
Do you think Travis Kelce could come through for the win? 🤔
US Department of Labor to delay Job loss report due to government shutdown.
ADP reports that private payrolls have dropped by about 32,000 jobs.
Prediction markets lean toward a mid-length shutdown. 10–29 days is trading near 50%, while the risk of a 30+ day disruption sits around 16%. Few believe this ends in under a week.
Hopefully this is resolved sooner rather than later!🙏
🚨Breaking🚨
78% chance of Israel raiding the Gaza Aid Flotilla today.
Reports today of the Flotilla being encircled by a warship
What do you think?🤔
Lisa Cook’s Fed confirmation odds on Polymarket collapsed from ~26% to just 2% after the Supreme Court just ruled she will keep her seat pending oral arguments in January.
With no resolution before year-end, the December 31 market is effectively dead.
Alongside user growth, cumulative trading volume has exploded. Polymarket and Kalshi have reached nearly $30B combined, showing how much capital is flowing into real world event risk.
Even after the post election drop, prediction markets never returned to pre 2024 lows. A dedicated base of 50–100k weekly users stayed engaged, proving this isn’t just a one off election fad.
Yemen’s Houthis warn they’ll target major US oil exporters in nearby seas (Reuters).
Markets reacted fast yesterday with odds of 2 Israeli strikes at 98% on Polymarket, up 19%.
Energy & security risk pricing in hard.
