Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan on the company's deal with @NYSE owner, Intercontinental Exchange: "Jeff Sprecher [CEO of Intercontinental Exchange] is a big believer in tokenization. Polymarket is a major consumer product in this space, with every prediction market tokenized." "We're leaning on Intercontinental Exchange for regulatory insights, while we bring consumer expertise. Together, we see a clear vision for @Polymarket."

On today's episode of The Interview series with Prediction Market traders, our guest is @probabilitygod Keep reading to hear what he has to say! « Make sure to check the thread to continue reading, as this filled with great detail » Hello PG, how are you doing today? I am good, woke up a couple of hours ago and did my usual scroll through X to see what’s up in the PM space and I am ready to dive back to work. Right now, I am focusing on optimizing my trading strat, as well as building @vatic_trading which is a unifying platform for traders to see, analyze and act on information as soon as possible. How did you get into Crypto? In mid 2021, I first heard about shiba doing a 100x and got intrigued then did my first swap on uniswap and instantly got wrecked by eth fees. Later that year, peak bull, I jumped into Ethereum nfts, olympus dao fork meta (when 10,000% apy somehow felt reasonable), then fantom defi. In early 2022, I was trading solana nfts w/ @DamianLovesGod, also touched some Solana defi when bonk launched and somehow survived the FTX nuke in 2023 and then stepped back for a bit but came back early 2024 during the jupyter airdrop. Got deep into meme trading and that’s when i started building copy trading bots + onchain monitoring dashboards. Any IRL activities aside Crypto? Yeah I’m in Property Investment right now. All the rest of my time goes into prediction markets trading or building. The goal is to make the jump into crypto full time. When and How did you stumble upon Prediction Markets? A few months back I was chilling w/ @xBlackTrump and since he’s deep into Geopolitics and Game Theory, he suggested that we start trading on prediction markets. I already knew about polymarket, even threw a couple trades in 2023–24, but at the time I was blinded by memes. The way I saw it back then, prediction markets just looked like some low-ROI side casino. Once I actually sat down and traded properly, it clicked. The possibilities felt endless and I started messing with the APIs, iterating on strategies and before long it stopped being a curiosity and turned into a full-blown obsession How’d you describe Prediction Markets to anyone who’s just hearing about it? I guess it depends on the audience I am addressing. If I was talking with a sportsbook bettor, I would tell him that prediction markets are a new betting platform with higher odds, no house edge and no banned accounts / frozen balances. If I was talking to a crypto/tech/finance/science native person I would describe prediction markets as the market’s foundational truth layer. A financial instrument that incentivizes people to reveal their private information and achieve to distill vast, decentralized knowledge into a single, dynamic number which is the price. The price represents the probabilistic outcome of the future event. What single biggest advantage do Prediction Markets bring to the average person? The average person benefits from prediction markets because they aggregate dispersed information into one clean signal. That means, unbiased and permission-less forecasts about events that actually affect you. Take politics: across the world, leaders lie or distort situations to serve lobbies, donors, or their puppeteers. a classic case is warhawks pushing for military action in some 3rd country on flimsy or manufactured narratives. prediction markets cut through the noise. they quantify the narrative, put a probabilistic price on it, and expose the actual truth. when incentives are aligned with accuracy, the spin dies fast. What markets narratives do you actively trade or prefer to trade? The main markets I trade are Global politics and European sports. Besides the fact that I have some kind of narrative advantage due to my consumption on relevant content, I have also developed a systematic way of approaching these markets. What’s your base thought process to approaching these trades? My thought process on these trades is based on a framework I have built which revolves around the idea that the current market price isn’t the truth but a consensus hallucination. This essentially means that the market price doesn’t represent always an objective truth, but it reflects the participants’ opinion which can be biased, flawed etc. so my goal is to find those markets where market price and consensus hallucination maximizes In order to do that - I use a 2 step process, ⇨ Aggregate all the most relevant signal. Ingest it and come up with a potential price impact it can have on the chart expressed as a percentage price change of a price. Then I look at the actual price chart and have 3 subsequent scenarios: i. expected change > actual change: consensus hallucination potential - the market has underpriced the event ii. expected change = actual change: the signal is priced in. skip iii. expected change < actual change: consensus hallucination - the market overprices the event ⇨ In scenarios i & iii, I use onchain analytics tools in order to interpret the mispricing: - is it a result of a single, large buy from a fresh wallet? insider probability - is it a result of a single, large buy lf a seasoned trader? conviction bet probability - is it a result of numerous small buys/sells uniformly distributed through time? organic price action Obviously this framework isn’t perfect and I keep iterating over it constantly. It’s essentially a dynamic framework that’s a function of the current market conditions, other trader habits, profitability, etc. Based on this framework, @vatic_trading team is building the platform Can you give an overview on what tools you use, what metrics you like to look at and what conditions prompt you into entering a trade? The main stack i use is @vatic_trading, @hash_dive, @Polysights, @NevuaMarkets plus a rotating cast of smaller tools. Each gives me a different lens: Narrative flow, onchain positioning, trader profiles, etc. The core metrics i care about are whale/insider activity, wallet archetypes, and trade sizing. Before pulling the trigger i try to align two conditions: Strong narrative comprehension and onchain confirmation.