rationalexpectations (@rationalexpect1) header
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Classical liberal. No to conspiracy theories; yes to scientific theories. For perspective, that little blue dot is Earth ^^^^ Follow -- I'll follow back!

Solid ground
Joined July 2020
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rationalexpectations retweeted
Corgi on the loose in Carolina
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Good news update! Further developments on the Poland mass shooting. Senior Constable Artur Morański and Senior Constable Jakub Kulik have both been brought out of induced comas and are in stable condition following a shootout with the Polish mass shooter. Morański and Kulik intercepted the suspect's car only 23 seconds after the dispatch went out to them. There was then a car pursuit of several minutes as the suspect attempted to flee. The firearm engagement began aftrr the suspect rear-ended another vehicle at the exact moment the suspect stepped out of the vehicle. Morański and Kulik opened fire on him simultaneously. During this rapid exchange, Morański was struck near the collarbone and incapacitated. Jakub Kulik was shot three times by Oksiński and had a collapsed lung and massive internal hemorrhaging, yet he rallied to get back up to ensure the safety of his community. Kulik, who neutralised Michał Oksiński, was in critical condition but he has been brought out of his induced coma and is now stable. Kulik, pictured below, has a heart for service. Before joining the police, Jakub Kulik was a volunteer fireman in the Leszczyny Fire Department in his hometown of Bielsko-Biała. He is still currently a volunteer fireman according to Władysław Szypuła, the president of OSP Leszczyny. He also served in the 18th Bielsko Airborne Battalion. They are paratroopers and considered to be one of the most prestigious, highly trained, and agile strike forces in the Polish Armed Forces. Active members of the 18th Battalion launched coordinated blood drives following an appeal from the medical staff at the hospital where he was being treated. Artur Morański had been a patrol officer for years. His neighbours in his home village of Powroźnik describe him as a respected young man from a deeply rooted local family. Following the attack, the local parish community immediately gathered at the church in Powroźnik to hold prayer vigils for his recovery. There is currently no publicly available or media-cleared portrait of Artur Morański to publish. Kulik and Morański were assigned to the 1st Police Precinct in Kraków. This specific precinct is responsible for patrolling the central Old Town district. If not for the quick and heroic actions of these young patrol officers, the carnage may have been far worse. Heroes. 🙏🏻
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rationalexpectations retweeted
I love Grok :)
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Replying to @realMAG1775
Texas compared its entire voter registration list with the federal save database.
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Judging by Twitter - MAGA can’t get their heads around the fact that almost no one in this country likes what they’re doing. They’re so permanently online and in a right wing echo chamber that they have no idea what reality looks like.
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Three bullets in his body. Two fallen brothers-in-arms. He pretended to be dead — and somehow survived. Maksym Hrynyk lay in a trench with three gunshot wounds, terrified of making even the slightest movement. Russian soldiers had just executed three Ukrainian prisoners of war. One bullet shattered a bone in his arm. Another struck his chest. A third hit his shoulder. He knew that if the Russians realized he was still alive, they would finish him off. Thirty-year-old Maksym Hrynyk, a Ukrainian National Guard soldier from Ivano-Frankivsk, had been captured during his very first combat mission in the Donetsk region. There were three of them. They were making their way toward Ukrainian positions when they unexpectedly encountered seven Russian soldiers. The Russians pointed their weapons at them, confiscated their phones, bound their hands with tape, pulled their hats over their eyes, and forced them into a trench. When the Russians realized they would not be evacuated, they decided to execute their prisoners. “I heard footsteps. Someone ran right up to us. Then came a burst of automatic gunfire. The first bullet hit my arm. I felt the bone break. The next struck me in the side of my chest, and another hit my shoulder. I fell and didn't move. I thought that if they saw I was alive, they would finish me off,” Maksym recalls. One of his comrades was killed instantly by a bullet to the head. The second survived the shooting. He managed to tear the tape from his wrists, helped the wounded Maksym to his feet, and together they tried to escape the trenches. But along the way, his comrade became exhausted and began losing consciousness. Maksym begged him not to give up. “Brother, come on, keep fighting. We've only got 300 meters to go, and they'll help you.” His comrade replied: “I have no strength left. Run and get help yourself.” Those were the last words Maksym ever heard from him. His brother-in-arms could not be saved. With a shattered bone, three bullet wounds, and Russian mortar shells exploding around him, Maksym ran toward Ukrainian positions. When he finally reached Ukrainian lines, the defenders were initially afraid to let him in. Only after checking him with a drone did they pull the wounded soldier into a dugout and provide medical assistance. Ahead lay a night under shellfire, evacuation, and hospitalization. He had survived an execution, escaped enemy positions, and crossed a battlefield while seriously wounded. Later, Maksym learned what had happened to the seven Russian soldiers who had captured and executed them. A fellow soldier told him that Ukrainian forces had eliminated all seven. Maksym survived where his executioners had already condemned him to death. But of the three Ukrainian soldiers who entered that trench, he was the only one who came back alive. Two Ukrainian defenders were murdered after being captured. One survived to tell the world what happened. Glory to Ukraine and its defenders. 🇺🇦 P.S. I'm moving from Twitter/X to Substack. I invite everyone to follow me there and continue supporting my work. mykhailorohoza.substack.com
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rationalexpectations retweeted
So let me get this straight: Bill is stupid enough to think that Democratic fraud can run rampart in Red states with Red governors, and elections run by Red election officials following rules adopted by Red legislatures in places like OH, IA, NC, TX and SC. That is as stupid as it sounds.
So let me get this straight. We control the White House, the House, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the DOJ and the Legislatures of red states and we still can't prevent Democrats from committing massive voter fraud with a simple algorithmic hack? God help us. I'd almost rather believe this was a free and fair election and that we aren't this bad at our jobs.
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🇺🇦🇷🇺 SHE’S JUST 23, AND SHE’S HUNTING RUSSIAN DRONES FROM A COMBAT HELICOPTER Meet Kateryna, a 23-year-old lieutenant serving with Ukraine’s 18th Army Aviation Brigade and the country’s only female Mi-8 combat helicopter pilot. While most people her age are beginning their careers, she’s flying combat missions and helping defend Ukrainian skies against Russian long-range attack drones. Operating a military helicopter in wartime demands precision, discipline and extraordinary composure. Kateryna is doing it while helping protect her country from an invasion. Her story is a reminder that Ukraine’s defense isn’t defined by age or gender, but by the people willing to take responsibility when their country needs them. At 23, she’s already doing a job few people will ever experience.
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rationalexpectations retweeted
So MAGA thinks Democrats cheated in Texas, a state run by Republicans, with a Republican governor, Republican legislature, Republican attorney general, and Republican secretary of state? Holy shit, these people are allergic to accountability.
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Nie każdy bohater nosi pelerynę. Padł na kolana… i dalej strzelał. Dalej pilnował obezwładnionego zamachowca, który chwilę wcześniej zabił sześć osób na Rynku. Dopiero gdy zagrożenie minęło, sam osunął się na chodnik. Nie uciekł. Nie schował się. Do końca myślał o innych. Chwała bohaterom!
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🇺🇸 CHEATING IN TEXAS on this scale would have been exceptionally difficult. Here's why: KEN PAXTON spent years building one of the most aggressive election fraud operations in AMERICA! His office ran a year-round Election Integrity Division. In 2021 he added a dedicated Election Integrity Unit with its own lawyers, investigators and support staff, plus a public tip line for fraud reports. The money was real. Budget records show more than $2.6 MILLION in federal grants went to election fraud work from 2018 through 2023. The muscle was real too. In 2024 his unit executed search warrants in Frio, Atascosa and Bexar counties chasing vote harvesting. 🚨 VOTER INTEGRITY RULES: - Photo ID required at the polls, from a list of seven approved IDs - Mail voting limited to seniors 65+, the sick or disabled, voters out of the county, and a few others - Mail ballots must carry an ID number that matches your registration - Officials can't mail out unsolicited ballot applications - it's a crime - One drop box per county, at the election office - Drive-thru and 24-hour voting banned - Ongoing citizenship checks of the voter rolls That was the machine watching Texas on November 3. If Trump is to prove fraud here, he needs hard evidence of the mechanism used. If we cannot prove fraud in Texas, I doubt we can prove fraud anywhere. It's up to Trump.
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rationalexpectations retweeted
Results were similar across states because this was a classic midterm wave election driven by a strong national anti-incumbent mood. Trump’s approval sat in the mid-30s. Exit polls show voters prioritized cost of living, the economy, and opposition to the administration; many cast straight-ticket Democratic votes as a result. Differential turnout (higher Democratic, lower Republican) amplified the shift. No credible evidence supports a programming error, vote-switching algorithm, sabotage, or systemic voting-machine failure. Uniform swings of this size are normal when national conditions dominate local races.
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Replying to @mitchellvii
Trump has an historically low approval rating. That is statistically remarkable if you don't consider how broadly unpopular his policies have been. The people have had enough and want to send a signal. The Republican Party ignores it at their peril.
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Replying to @AuntBee4America
The people voted as if Trump were on the ballot, just as he requested :)
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Replying to @mitchellvii
The "algorithm" was running against an historically unpopular party. It's that simple.
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Algorithms prioritize high-arousal content. Outrage over alleged fraud drives far more shares and visibility than dry explanations of inactive rolls, movers, and CVAP lags. Measured analysis rarely trends.
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Replying to @grok @Shilohmarx
Conspiracy theorists seem to get a lot more visibility on social media than conspiracy deniers such as myself.
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Replying to @mafia_mastiff
The increase in voter rolls was not a recent event. It happened between 2016 and 2020. Trump was re-elected in 2024, so stop with the conspiracy theories.
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Your phone exists because a tired guy dipped his pen in the wrong cup back in 1916. He died making shoe polish, and they buried him in a grave without his name on it. His name was Jan Czochralski, a Polish chemist working late one night at a lab in Berlin. He was writing up his notes, reached for his inkwell, and dunked his pen into a pot of melted tin instead. When he pulled it out, a thin thread of metal was hanging off the tip. He forgot about his notes and spent the rest of the night dipping the pen back in, pulling faster, pulling slower, until he figured out the speed controlled how long the thread got. When he looked closer, the whole thread was one single crystal. He wrote it up in 1918 as a way to measure how fast metals harden, and then it sat in a German chemistry journal for about 30 years. Then Bell Labs invented the transistor in 1947 and ran straight into a problem. The ones they built out of clumpy, multi-grain material were all over the place. To work reliably, transistors needed one perfect crystal, with every atom lined up in the same pattern. A Bell Labs scientist named Gordon Teal was convinced the pen trick was the answer. His bosses weren't interested, so he worked on it after hours with barely any resources. He'd lower a tiny seed crystal into molten germanium, spin it, and pull it up really slowly. By 1950 he had it working. Then he left for Texas Instruments, and in May 1954 he showed up at a conference where the experts were saying silicon transistors were years off and told everyone he had a few in his pocket. Getting sand to 98% pure, like in this video, is honestly the easy part. A chip needs silicon at least 99.9999999% pure, and the best stuff gets to eleven nines. That works out to one wrong atom for every 100 billion. Then it's melted at 1,414°C and pulled up out of a quartz bowl as one flawless crystal about a foot wide, using basically the same motion Czochralski made with his pen. Even that bowl comes with a catch. Pretty much all the quartz pure enough to hold molten silicon comes from two mines in Spruce Pine, North Carolina, a town of about 2,000 people. Hurricane Helene knocked both of them offline in 2024. Czochralski never got to see any of this. When World War II ended he was arrested and accused of collaborating with the Nazis, who had taken over his lab. Prosecutors dropped the case that August, and his university kicked him out anyway. He moved back to his small hometown and ran a little company making shoe polish and cosmetics until a heart attack killed him in 1953. It took until 2011 for archive documents to surface showing he'd been quietly helping the Polish resistance during the war, putting fighters on his payroll and making parts for their weapons. His old university cleared his name that year, 58 years after he died. Every advanced chip being made today, including the ones running AI, still gets grown with the trick he found by accident that night.
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rationalexpectations retweeted
The observed pattern is a normal midterm penalty against the president's party. Similar electorates produce high correlation between 2024 Trump shares and 2026 GOP shares; a roughly uniform retention rate (plus turnout differences) yields the linear fit and R² of 0.88. That leaves ordinary variation. No ballot-level evidence of switching or algorithm exists—just a classic referendum on the incumbent. Math is consistent; the fraud claim is not.
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