Founder @StateChangeAI. Youtube: https://xitter.cf/t.co/6PBjwzkS4q Statechange: https://xitter.cf/t.co/pxiIlMM5TD.
East Burke, VT
Joined July 2012
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AI may restructure a market before it restructures the company inside it — AI-native entrants start from a lower interface and move value from vendor to customer.
Full conversation: youtu.be/MZwIHkmcDmg
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
If AI had been writing and reviewing its own code for the past few decades, and humans had only recently started looking into what it was up to and discovered an ever-growing list of CVEs, we would reasonably conclude that AI hadn’t been good at coding all along and that we should just start over.
Except it’s the other way around.
Humans have been the ones writing and reviewing each other’s code for decades. Very diligently, if I may add.
If we’re being intellectually honest and holding ourselves to the same bar we hold AI to, we’d have to admit that we haven’t been all that good at it either.
Someone who works with a lot of Fortune 500 CEOs says their most common question about AI isn't strategic — it's "when do I get to retire?"
Full conversation: youtu.be/MZwIHkmcDmg
CEOs aren't just cutting costs — they're handing headcount to AI. The honest answer to "when do I get to retire?" turns out to be: reduce headcount, and let AI carry the load.
Full conversation: youtu.be/MZwIHkmcDmg
Frontier AI models are becoming interchangeable gears in a larger machine — the practical move is choosing the right model-plus-harness fit per job, not loyalty to one model, since new frontier leaders keep displacing the last favorite.
Full conversation: youtu.be/p6PijF6Vci8
“The token efficiency is much better — token cost seems to be lower because it's more efficient.”
Full conversation: youtu.be/p6PijF6Vci8
“It's actually the thing that surprised me the most about it is how fast it is.”
Full conversation: youtu.be/p6PijF6Vci8
Where does value survive when AI models get commoditized?
Specialist data, regulated context, or proprietary process — otherwise you become an invisible extension of someone else's prompt.
Full conversation: youtu.be/esvm0CLeT0s
“Unreal Engine creates bigger unlocks when working with models, which then increases the value of Unreal Engine as more people are able to make more extraordinary stuff with a whole lot less labor.”
Full conversation: youtu.be/esvm0CLeT0s
“The differential for me comes from specialist knowledge or regulatory environment — where it's not as easy to just do a straight substitution.”
Full conversation: youtu.be/esvm0CLeT0s
AI subscription pricing will pass through three phases before it settles: generous today, expensive and metered next, then cheap once infrastructure matures — the same arc that took phone plans from per-minute billing to unlimited data.
Full conversation: youtu.be/KuBmIm4QMyE
40 billable hours x 50 weeks is a way to think about billing. Make the hours more valuable: feed delivery with study and selling, then bring expertise and trust to the work. The client can get a better deal while you can capture a higher rate.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
one thing I'm picking up from the MIT AI conference. Robot hands might be solved in 2-3 quarters, and that's going to be a huge deal
I’m generally bullish on Ai, but this analysis sounds like the early read on CDOs prior to 2008, Eg “The equity tranche is supposed to be this volatile and the more senior tiers are protected”
CoreWeave's debt, explained simply, because I like to speak plainly:
Secured debt = the mortgage. Backed by the house. The GPUs and the contracts they serve are the collateral.
Unsecured debt = the credit card.
Backed by a promise.
Everyone is panicking that $CRWV UNSECURED yield to MATURITY hit 15%
But a credit card rate spiking doesn't mean the house (or in this case the GPUs/data centers) lost value.
The secured lenders or the ones who underwrote the actual GPUs and contracts aren't selling here.
Now zoom out, because this is analogous to the entire AI market in wrapped up in a single company.
Trillions in secured, asset-backed debt are loaned against GPUs, data centers, power contracts, and signed capacity deals with hyperscalers. This money doesn't care about stock prices or investor sentiment.
It gets paid if the contracts pay. (Sounds pretty similar to $next if you ask me…)
Below that in line is unsecured debt, a bet on the companies themselves.
On top of everything is the equity, a bet on the story.
So when you see scary headlines about "AI debt," ask one question: which layer?
Yields spiking on unsecured debt and equities dropping while secured debt sits calm simply means the market is repricing the story.
The assets are fine.
The buildout keeps getting funded because the secured debt holders still believes in the collateral.
The day that changes… well the day secured lenders start questioning GPU values and contract quality, is the day the AI trade actually breaks and we should run for the hills.
Until then, volatility at the top of the stack (unsecured, equities) is just the shock absorbers doing their job.
And “great” comes far more from the problem solved by the software than the prettiness or even medium-term maintainability of the code. The difference between great and perfect is about filling in the latter.
"That creates predictability for the customer, and the customer is willing to pay a premium for that predictability."
Full conversation: youtu.be/KuBmIm4QMyE
"The iPhone comes along and the thing that becomes much more important is data — and we stop getting subsidization. Phones become much more expensive."
Full conversation: youtu.be/KuBmIm4QMyE
“Study is an investment.”
Shipping is about taking these ideas, taking this reputation and turning it into a result for client value.
Take a look at your week: what are you doing to study?
youtube.com/watch?v=INQe4zyZ…
Many thanks to @nickytonline for his gracious hosting today - a fabulous conversation. I learned a lot!
And we're live! Come hang with @ray_deck @BekahHW @shookcodes @dandigangi
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1jxXgBLqP…
