
Founder @StateChangeAI. Youtube: https://xitter.cf/t.co/6PBjwzkS4q Statechange: https://xitter.cf/t.co/pxiIlMM5TD.
East Burke, VT
Joined July 2012
- Tweets6.7K
- Following1.2K
- Followers899
- Likes4.3K
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
If AI had been writing and reviewing its own code for the past few decades, and humans had only recently started looking into what it was up to and discovered an ever-growing list of CVEs, we would reasonably conclude that AI hadn’t been good at coding all along and that we should just start over.
Except it’s the other way around.
Humans have been the ones writing and reviewing each other’s code for decades. Very diligently, if I may add.
If we’re being intellectually honest and holding ourselves to the same bar we hold AI to, we’d have to admit that we haven’t been all that good at it either.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
one thing I'm picking up from the MIT AI conference. Robot hands might be solved in 2-3 quarters, and that's going to be a huge deal
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
The only four real moats btw
Moats! Does anyone have one anymore?
Yes. Yes, they do.
But only a small subset of what people call moats create real long-term value and defensibility.
Not actually a moat:
1. Distribution: This does matter more than ever. Building products has gotten easier, but getting them to customers has not. Distribution, however, does not create durable defensibility. It helps create the raw ingredients for one, but it is not itself a moat.
2. Execution: Yes, speed is critical for startups. But a company that has to sprint forever is not a good business. Ultimately, it will misstep, slow down, and competition will catch up. Speed gives a company more shots on goal as it tries to build a great product and a great business, but it must eventually find something more durable.
3. Brand: The idea is that when everyone is building the same thing, the most resonant brand will win. But for startups, brand works more like customer acquisition spend: Put money in, get growth out. It’s not something that will effectively keep others from competing long-term. Brand can become a true moat over time (as with Coke or Nike or Apple), but it just takes too long to really matter for most startups.
What you're looking for is compounding advantages: a self-reinforcing flywheel that gets stronger and stronger over time, ultimately making a company very hard to compete with long-term.
There are only four compounding advantages that really matter. Every major tech company has at least one:
1. Switching costs: The more deeply embedded a product is in the way a customer works, the harder it is for that customer to switch. This increases retention and revenue per customer, which can be reinvested into the product.
2. Network effects: The more users a product has, the better it gets for everyone. This increases engagement and attracts more users.
3. Scale economies: The more volume a company has, the larger and more efficient its operations can be. This lowers unit costs, funding lower prices or a better product at the same price, further driving up volume.
4. Data effects: The more usage a product has, the more data it generates. This data can be used to improve the product and increase usage.
If you can’t see the potential for any in the startup you’re considering joining, that’s a red flag.
In today’s incredible post, @danhockenmaier shares a simple framework you can run in about an hour after getting an offer:
1. Identify a startup’s compounding advantage
2. Gauge how strong it could get
3. Measure whether it’s working
Inside: dozens of real company examples, the specific metrics to track, and benchmarks for what good and great look like.
Read it here: lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-t…
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I believe the "we ship 30,000 changes/month" stories. But I suspect the type of product you're shipping into is important.
If your product is like a big garden with 500 trees, each can be trimmed on its own. Integrations, tools, connectors, edge-cases, security fixes. Each change makes one tree better, so tons of changes can run in parallel.
Other products are more like a bonsai. Every cut changes the whole thing. If I want to cut here and you want to cut there, we have to actually agree first.
I wonder if a lot of the "code review" debate might be apples and oranges depending on whether you're a platform or a bonsai team.
A formalism of this is Kauffman's NK landscape. N is how many decisions you can make. K is how entangled they are. A wide-surface product has large N but small K. So it can absorb enormous parallel change. A tightly integrated UX has high K, so parallel changes collide in what they're trying to achieve, even when the code merges cleanly.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
Happening tomorrow! Come join @ray_deck, @BekahHW, @iamKierraD, @dandigangi, @shookcodes and myself as we discuss how we levergae AI in our day to day.
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1jxXgBLqP…
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
“The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time” - Bertrand Russell
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I'm ready for my next chapter.
For the last 20 months I've been building AI video pipelines at Animatix with a small, sharp team. I take generative models and make them work in real productions for real clients. That work has aired on UK television and won awards at film festivals. It's been some of the best work of my life, and I'm excited to see where Animatix goes.
Next, I want a full-time role where I can keep taking generative video, image, and audio out of the demo and into real creative work. Forward-deployed, creative technologist, or product roles. Remote or in person.
If you're hiring, or know someone who is, I'd love to talk. Intros go a long way.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
"Software factory" is a depressing vision for the future of software. Let's build software gardens instead🌻
This is the beginning of software and software engineering. We are just getting started.
Saying software is dead because anyone can build it is like saying photography is dead now that everyone in the world has a camera in their pocket
Not only is it not dead it's the beginning of the Kodak Brownie moment for software, and we will see an absolute explosion of it
It will be the first generation for who building software will feel no different than using it. This is crazy!
The quality and bar of what we expect from our everyday apps will be raised dramatically, we'll have personal software, we'll have disposable software, and agents will be the foundation for most of it
Tech has always been chaotic and evolving, the people who have been able to adapt and move in front of new opportunities have always excelled, this is nothing new, I'm seeing it now and we'll see it 10 years from now
Find the opportunities in the chaose and disruption, there are countless of them
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
Once again. The idea that AI is only improving rapidly in verifiable domains like math is looking suspect.
Exclusive: Another prestigious award has gone to a writer who seems to have used AI as the crisis of trust in the literary world intensifies, @vauhinivara reports: theatlantic.com/books/2026/1…
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I think a lot of resentment comes from repeatedly saying “yes” while privately hoping somebody will notice you wanted to say “no.” People aren’t paying as much attention to you as you’d hope. You gotta speak up for yourself.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
Replying to @Devinda_me
Yeah I think I will. If it were me maintaining it, I’d just want a prompt (issue), and would use that to investigate, and then the solution they came up with would be something to compare against once my agent and I have found our own solution.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I think this generation of developers, those who need deep focus time to get stuff done and feel productive, aren't going to be the superstars in the AI era. It's going to be the people who have starcraft minds.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
This analogy is the best I've ever heard when it comes to how LLM-generated code looks, works, and what the role of developers is morphing into.
Pre-AI codebases are sturdy, with scaffolding that allows for human comprehension and, at the same time, prevents hyper-optimization. We need to "get" the code, not just run it.
Post-AI codebases let go of all pretense to be both accessible by interpreters/compilers/runtimes AND humans, and contain JUST what is needed to provide the expected outcomes.
And that is what developers are realizing they must measure, review, and verify. Not the code, but the constraints and tests around it.
Codebases are going to start looking like optimized topology 3d prints
When AI is better at math than humans it also becomes better at algorithm & codebase design
At that point the system and delivering quality software doesn’t require human understanding to exist in the actual code layer.
Only needs to be understood by humans at the high level of passing testing, verification, vibe checks and being understandable when queried via AI in the rare case one need to dive deeper.
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I am surprised that people are surprised this is how I prompt Claude.
Talk to Claude the way you would a coworker. There's no secret to prompting. There's no need to be overly scaffolded or prescriptive for most tasks -- give Claude a goal, and it will figure it out.
Back in the Sonnet 3.5 days, your prompt mattered a lot. Nowadays, it's much more important to communicate to the model:
1. What you want it to do
2. How much effort you want it to spend
3. How it should verify that it did the right thing
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
Introducing Beam: a highly efficient agentic open model with 501B total parameters and 23B active.
- Frontier reasoning efficiency
- Advances the Western open frontier on coding & agentic tasks
- Trained end-to-end from scratch
Full weights release this month.
Learn more about Beam: reflection.ai/beam
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
I have not seen near enough excitement about MCP Events developers.openai.com/plugin…
Right now, the only way most people's agents can wake up and do something is either A) cron, or B) you decide to message it
Event-driven triggers are a huge deal
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
codex had resets, everyone switched
openai ran out of compute, resets gone
claude limits got better, everyone switched back
don't be loyal to big ai companies
use whoever's treating you best this week
Ray Deck @ statechange.ai retweeted
It will be much harder to change your world view after you get addicted to talking to an AI avatar.
Choose carefully now or always be in the tribe you are in. And believing in a "soul" makes you easier to control when you do.
Unpopular lessons from brain computing pioneer I talk with frequently.

































