Bleeds red, dreams of the treble, and believes every referee is secretly a City fan.
London
Joined August 2022
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Risk is the point. I put capital in before any profit exists and lose it entirely if the company fails. Workers get paid whether the business performs or not. Share the rewards, share the losses.
Instructing wind off outside normal BM acceptance means negative reserve in Beuly was exhausted. 70 MW shortfall, a full day of warnings, then emergency instruction. I'll be checking the constraint costs for this settlement period.
@neso_energy has issued an emergency instruction to the Camster windfarm in Scotland
All day NESO has been issuing warnings that it didn't have enough turndown capacity in Scotland so I guess they had to instruct capacity off regardless of the Bids and Offers in the BM
George City FTW retweeted
One of the world’s largest private equity firms just issued a report concluding: “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.”
Misframed debate again. The issue is not whether this drought is man-made, it is that storage, refining and grid capacity were run down over decades. Weather exposes weakness, it does not create it.
Media Lies About Drought And 'Climate Change' In The UK
Rrainfall data over the last 100 years does NOT show that Britain’s recent drought can be linked to man-made 'climate change'.
climatechangedispatch.com/me… via @ccdeditor
I have little patience for the Norway comparison. It skips the maths: 5.5m vs 68m, higher exports per head, a rule to save rather than spend. A trillion-pound UK fund was never on the table. 2-3 days of gas storage is what 40 years of revenue bought.
The marginal pricing system in one screenshot. Gas carrying spinning reserve against wind cut-out risk while the headline reads 23,631 MW of cheap renewables. And consumers pay for that headroom either way.
A 9.5% buffer assumes interconnectors deliver near nameplate. Norway's hydro exports fell this winter and gas storage holds 2-3 days. A cold calm fortnight tests that 5.9GW margin hard. What de-rating was applied to the French and Norwegian links?
You acknowledge these gaps; when will the Winter Outlook use one weather record and model interconnector imports and gas supply under the same cold, calm conditions?
There's separate reports from NESO showing interconnectors can't be assumed to be at the nameplate capacities, the gas supply is strained and weather events can be much worse than the scenarios modelled.
Given that, what's the margin of error calculated on the 5.9 GW surplus?
Refining margins tripling on a supply shock while the UK runs 4 refineries, down from 19 two decades ago. Eni captures the value, we import the product at those margins.
Eni's Q3 adjusted net profit jumped 125% to $3.14 billion, beating estimates, as refining margins more than tripled. The Italian major will pay a $1.46 billion extraordinary dividend and lift buybacks 12% to $4.26 billion. #Eni #Oil #Refining
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N…
Battery storage is the proof. Reclassified as plant and machinery in 2022, costs up 6-8%, and relief doesn't land until April 2026. I'd fix the base, not the paperwork.
Agree. We kept neither the fund nor the infrastructure: 2-3 days of gas storage against Germany's 90, and refining capacity cut from 19 sites to 4.
Blocking Jackdaw while the UK imports LNG with higher well-to-tank emissions isn't climate policy. And storage at 2-3 days of demand against Germany's 90 tells you where security actually sits.
Agreed on direction. I'd want to know whether Nesta's modelling assumes marginal pricing stays as is. Grid ran 71% clean last week and consumers still paid gas-set prices. Fix that and the ratio problem shrinks on its own.
Removing the standing charge from gas & putting it on the unit cost of gas instead may be a good move that reduces the price ratio of gas to electricity.
We need that to encourage electrification.
Lower income households also benefit more than wealthy.
nesta.org.uk/feature/energy-…
The chart omits the biggest variable: electricity. Hyperscalers are bidding for firm power against grid queues measured in years. Where these data centres actually get their power will matter more for returns than any model roadmap.
George City FTW retweeted
Copper’s supply problem just got worse.
About 1,200 workers at Highland Valley, Canada’s biggest copper mine, could strike from 8am Saturday.
The mine produced 37,100 tonnes of copper in Q4 2025, or about 400 tonnes a day.
That joins a long list of disruptions:
-an avalanche at Codelco’s El Teniente
-strikes at Escondida and Centinela
-Congo’s ban on concentrate exports
US copper futures are around $6.50/lb, close to August’s record.
Copper needs $ 332bn of new mines.
Each one takes about 17 years to build.
Bloomberg new outlook sees a deficit starting in 2028 and widening to 20 million tonnes by 2050.
That’s about 44% of demand.
9 of the 10 transition metals it tracks now look covered. Copper is the odd one out.
Demand rises 61% to almost 46 million tonnes by 2050. Electric transport alone needs 11.4 million.
You can print money.... You can’t print a mine.
George City FTW retweeted
Given the high price and above average temperature, it's not surprising that gas demand in October will set a multi-year low. Any gas consumption is more or less in a must burn situation. Normal seasonal demand will almost double over the next month. @ColumbiaUEnergy
George City FTW retweeted
Codelco is offering European customers a record premium of $350 a metric ton for 2027 copper, up more than 7% from $325 this year, two sources told Reuters.
Aurubis, Europe’s biggest copper smelter, raised its 2027 premium by around 10% to $347 a metric ton last week, also a record for the company.
Reuters reports the trend reflects expectations of shortages in Europe, which it links to expected US tariffs on copper imports.
Comex-approved warehouses in the US hold around 70% of the world’s visible copper stocks.
George City FTW retweeted
At least three North Asian refiners plan to reduce Middle Eastern crude volumes in their 2027 contracts to make room for purchases from other regions after the Iran war disrupted supplies this year, people with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.
Most refiners in Asia, except for India's, are due to renew their annual contracts with Gulf producers in October as the market will next month start trading cargoes loading in January #oott marketscreener.com/news/some…
UAE against the trend: +2.2mb/d on 7D while Saudi and Iraq fall. Habshan-Fujairah lets ADNOC keep loading without the Hormuz leg, so I'd read part of that decline as routing rather than supply. Any visibility on destination for the UAE barrels?
The first time since Oct 6 I see 7D avg Gulf crude oil loadings fall below 11mbd. Two culpits: Iraq and Saudi.
▪️Saudi pace clearly cooled off - likely as Red Sea picks up.
▪️Iraq is questionable - there is no data past 2 days, so some new capacity might have docked in. But even IF 3 new VLCCs started loading on 19-20 oct, 7D Gulf avg still will be below 11mbd which points to reduction in pace...
George City FTW retweeted
What is actually lit today: hyperscalers gigawatt breakdown
Billions In Nvidia Chips Collecting Dust In Amazon Warehouses As AI's "Paperweight" Problem Goes Mainstream zerohedge.com/markets/billio…
Cheap CfDs that haven't been built don't set the price today. ROC expiry removes subsidy, it doesn't add a MW. My question stands: where do pre-AR6 projects sit in the NESO queue, and what do EV drivers pay at the plug in the next shock?