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Joined July 2013
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imagine the mental gymnastics people have done to fade the Robinhood chain all this time watching the ecosystem continue to outperform while their bags bleed harder and harder with no respite in sight and still convincing themselves they’re right the funniest part? most of them will eventually submit they’ll just submit at a much higher price why not submit now?
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the whole then vs now debate is so retarded. of course it was easier to make money in crypto back then. i wasn’t here in 2017, but even in 2021 it was multiple times easier than it is today. i’m not even saying that being early to crypto was necessarily just luck. but denying that simply because it hurts your ego is absolutely ridiculous. it’s completely normal that the more participants enter a market, the fewer inefficiencies there are to exploit. that being said, even today we’re still incredibly blessed and there’s no other market in the world that offers this many opportunities.
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believe it or not Robinhood is this cycle what Solana was last cycle and what Ethereum was the cycle before it's okay if you don't get it yet you'll get it in due time!
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my base case for crypto is still the same. the reason it has been underperforming despite equities making new ATHs is the constant fear that we're in an AI bubble that's about to pop. i still don't think current valuations suggest we're in a bubble. and if we are, i think we're much closer to 1998 than 2000. it's only a matter of time before the market comes to the same conclusion and shifts from fear back to greed. once that happens, crypto price action is going to get very interesting. ironically, that timing could end up aligning surprisingly well with the 4 year cycle.
my market outlook hasn't really changed. S&P 500 is going to 9,000+ in 2026/27 before the top is in. the good news is that the consensus is still that we're in an AI bubble that's about to burst. sentiment can shift very quickly, and it's only a matter of time before the market flips back to FOMO and greed. that's when people will start going risk-on again, and i expect BTC/crypto to outperform for a while when this happens. still expecting plenty of volatility along the way due to geopolitical tensions, more major IPOs, and continued uncertainty around AI. that's my broad outlook for the next 1–2 years, and i'll keep using the volatility to build positions.
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$ESPORT an 86% dump in literally 20 minutes Another crime on Binance Always be careful
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Vested airdrops that go to zero before you can even claim. Predatory agencies with $50 USD paid posts (sometimes as raffles, so you might not get paid at all). InfoFi dead. Crypto niche nuked, rev share down. Imagine joining CT in 2026, absolutely cooked
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ive seen too many legendary traders completely lose everything $10m+ back to 0, and many times extreme negative due to taxes, debt we see crazy pnls, but usually the portfolios that blow up are quiet knowing that, risk management and setting up guardrails to protect yourself are key to wealth longevity. this is what has worked so well for me, if you have any advice, please add! • left curve / right curve to make a lot of money, mid curve to keep it. know when to go boring. parking money in brokerages, t bills that gain you 4% annually, CDs, savings accounts, etc. • mental confidence is everything. trading is a very solo sport, the calmness of our mind is everything. you let that go, and greed and fear can seep in. stay neutral always. ive lost a good amount when i win a few times in a row, that can lead to increasing my unit size dramatically. then i miss a few times with +size, then tilt. eliminate that chance. • bring in other people. as i said, most people try to solo, but talk with family, friends who understand. and not only when you win, but when you lose. constantly talk it out. when i first started trading, i actually used twitter as a way to speak it out. that helped me stay neutral no matter what. helps you take profits too. • buy physical things. the "stupid sh*t." cars, watches, cards, CASH. ENJOY YOUR PROFITS. but most importantly, you can liquidate these any time later. in a way it's sealing in profits while enjoying experiences. 10% haircut later, worth it. many times, it actually goes up in value. • also do the smart things. stack cash, add to brokerage, dca in etfs, buy land/real estate, etc. • enjoy life. this is the most important thing. NEVER EVER forget why youre trading. yes, the game is fun. yes, it feels like a video game with imaginary digital money. but constantly find ways to improve your life. never sacrifice your physical or mental health (for too long). protect your downside that’s how you stay in the game long enough to win i know it's not the shiny fun part, but it's the most important part
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You could retire with $1M - deposit $1M into Solana or Ethereum DeFi - think you’ll earn around $7k-$8k per month - within a couple months have the underlying protocol get hacked - lose 98% of your principal - unable to write off any of the losses on your taxes - owe the IRS mid 6-figs - go to debtors prison for life and have taxpayers cover your room and board What's stopping you?
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My net worth peaked at $1.2 million. None of it was real. I don't mean that philosophically. I mean it was located on servers that have since been turned off. I own eleven properties in the metaverse. Three in Decentraland. Four in The Sandbox. Two in Voxels. One in Otherside. And a beachfront villa in Horizon Worlds that I bought for $214,000 because Mark Zuckerberg called it "the next frontier." The frontier closed last week. It's a mobile app now. Last year I mass DM'd 340 people the phrase "you don't understand how early we are." I have since stopped doing that. Not because I was wrong. Because most of them blocked me. I got into metaverse real estate in November 2021. Everyone was buying. Someone paid $450,000 to be Snoop Dogg's neighbor. In a video game. With no legs. The avatars didn't have legs. I thought that was bullish. "The legs are coming," I told my Discord. "Legs are a roadmap item." Three hundred people reacted with rocket emojis. I called myself a "digital land baron." I put it in my Twitter bio. I put it in my LinkedIn headline. I said it on a podcast that had eleven listeners. Three of them were bots. The rest were my alts. My virtual property has more square footage than my actual apartment. My actual apartment has furniture. Location, location, location. My most valuable asset was a plot next to a virtual Gucci store. Gucci left in 2023. The store is still there. Nobody's in it. It's like a mall in Ohio but with worse graphics and no food court. I held. Diamond hands. That's what we said. "Diamond hands." It means refusing to sell while your investment loses 94% of its value. We turned financial paralysis into a personality trait. A guy in my Discord paid $2.4 million for a 618-parcel estate in Decentraland. Prime district. High foot traffic. I asked him what "foot traffic" meant when the platform had 38 daily active users. He said I didn't understand the technology. I didn't. I still bought more. We had a DAO. A decentralized autonomous organization. That means we voted on decisions. There were nine of us. Three never showed up. Two voted on everything without reading it. The other four were me and my alts. We voted to "acquire strategic parcels." The vote passed unanimously. I voted four times. My portfolio peaked at $1.2 million. I told everyone. I made a spreadsheet. I projected 40x returns by 2025. I made a pitch deck. The pitch deck had a slide that said "WE ARE BUILDING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY." The slide had a rocket emoji. That was my entire financial model. In 2023 I bought a Bored Ape for $189,000. It's worth $14,000 now. I don't talk about the Ape. I still use it as my profile picture. People ask me about it. I say "I'm long-term bullish." Long-term bullish means I can't sell it without crying in a Panera. My mom asked me what a Bored Ape was. I said "digital art on the blockchain." She asked why it cost more than her car. I said "you don't understand Web3." She said "I understand you live in a studio apartment." She's not in my Discord. Justin Bieber bought one for $1.3 million. It's worth about $90,000 now. I felt better about mine after I heard that. That's community. WAGMI. We're All Gonna Make It. We said that every day. In the group chat. While the floor dropped. While the volume dried up. While 95% of all NFT collections went to zero. We're all gonna make it. None of us made it. But we said it with conviction and a laser-eye profile picture. That counts for something. It doesn't. But we said it did. That's decentralized consensus. Meta spent $84 billion on the metaverse. I need to say that again. $84 billion. More than the GDP of Luxembourg. More than the GDP of Iceland, Luxembourg, and Malta combined. They spent it on a platform where the avatars had no legs, the graphics looked like a 2006 Wii game, and the peak user count was lower than the lunch rush at a Chipotle in Des Moines. They just pulled Horizon Worlds from VR headsets. It lives on as a mobile app. My beachfront villa is now a mobile app. Location, location, location. Zuckerberg renamed the entire company for this. Facebook became Meta. A $900 billion company changed its legal name because the CEO watched Ready Player One and said "I want that." Reality Labs lost $10 billion in 2021. $14 billion in 2022. $16 billion in 2023. $18 billion in 2024. $19 billion in 2025. That's not a strategy. That's a speedrun. They laid off 1,500 Reality Labs employees this year. Shut down three VR studios. Killed Supernatural. Put the entire VR social vision in a casket and said "we're pivoting to AI and wearables." The pivot took four years and $84 billion. I pivoted too. I'm an AI real estate investor now. I bought a virtual plot in an AI-generated world that doesn't exist yet. The founder said it was "the intersection of spatial computing and large language models." I don't know what that means. I gave him $40,000. He has a whitepaper. It's 47 pages. I read the title and the tokenomics section. The tokenomics section is a pie chart. I love pie charts. They make everything look like a plan. The project has a roadmap. Q1: "Build community." Q2: "Launch beta." Q3: "Scale ecosystem." Q4 is blank. Q4 is always blank. That's where the exit scam goes. My accountant asked me to value my metaverse portfolio for tax purposes. I said $1.2 million. He said "current market value." I said $6,400. He stared at me for eleven seconds. I know because I counted. He asked if I had any other investments. I showed him my NFTs. He stared for longer. I told him they were "cultural artifacts with long-term provenance." He asked if I'd considered a 401k. I told him a 401k was "legacy finance." He told me to leave his office. The metaverse is dead. I don't accept that. I am a digital land baron. I own eleven properties across four platforms. I have a beachfront villa in a mobile app, a plot next to an empty Gucci store, and a cartoon monkey that cost me more than my actual car. Location, location, location. The location is nowhere. But I'm early. I'm always early. That's the same as being wrong except you get to say it with confidence.
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88% win rate trading politics on Polymarket It’s real! Dzibenaja is showing a master class I’ve analyzed his trades and here are my conclusions: > He made $115 510 within 128 predictions > Trades all kinds of political markets - geopolitics, elections, Trump markets. Everything he has an edge in > He focuses on swing trades - the number of predictions proves it > High conviction bets is a priority > Over 70% of his trades are against the event happening - "NO" outcome What I like the most is his ability to manage risks and stick to his strategy long-term Worth to watch: 0x59a513a782dd4c1a98ef22932c52191129f5afc8
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25bps.
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How did my friend make over $1,000 risk-free on @Polymarket during the FIFA mention market? The answer is: Teleprompters. He found a livestream where the teleprompter was visible and started sniping mentions before anyone else even heard them. Literally free money.
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The Forbes cover piece mentions how I was emailing the SEC as a kid Here it is, October 2013. Little did I know... What people call an "overnight success" takes a decade. And still a looong way to go
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the only thing that was stopping Polymarket from launching in US is CFTC approval missing. now it was officially received by Polymarket. now users from US can feel and act free on platform. welcome home, Shayne. welcome home, Polymarket. this market sells $1 for 76 cents. polymarket.com/event/will-po…
3 steps to make first $100,000 on polymarket. 1st chapter was about top traders and insiders. now you have to make first guaranteed payout. I collected markets literally giving you free dollars: I. afk mode markets the markets you only have to ape a position and lod until resolution date, usually the odds are bouncing in 90¢-99¢ range. I'm sure no one of you wants to load bags at this high prices, so here's safe markets with best APY: > Epstein files release market. in september the committee of u.s. house of representatives has released a copy of book, believed it was given to Jeffrey Epstein in 2003. the epstein files disclosure bill was already passed by House, all we left is to be them signed and released by Trump untill the end of the year. government bill require period of time to be signed, that's why we are entering the december outcome, not november one. YES by dec31 at 73¢ per share shows the community confidence about epstein files coming. current odds are dumping cuz of no any news are here, but there won't be any of them. next step is public release itself. market link: polymarket.com/event/will-tr… > Polymarket US goes live in 2025 market. the existence of this market literally tells you about polymarket team intentions. there's no need to run such market if you're not confident going to be launched this year. the only difficulty polymarket faces at u.s. is the law. (which is almost not relevant today) the largest promo campaign in NYC and the team efforts being putted there tells the launch is coded. I know a number of polymarket traders accumulating more and more numbers here as well as me personally. current 70¢ odds makes this market the best place where your bag can be loaded. market link: polymarket.com/event/will-po… > Polymarket kaito mindshare markets. it only takes some time to be resolved by YES. as some polymarket old guys know, the token is confirmed, the worldwide promo roadmap is drawn (rome, paris, tokyo, etc.) that's why reach of 70% / 80% of kaito mindshare is literally coded. right now Polymarket covers >52% mindshare over last 30days. it has no real competitors as it's literally a prediction markets giant. market link: polymarket.com/event/will-po… > Who will trump meet with in november market. Zelensky’s visit to the US is planned for dec3–dec5, after thanksgiving. that's why current 93¢ NO odds per share are literally free 7% yield. market resolution comes in next few days, so you know what to do. market link: polymarket.com/event/who-wil… II. flip-by-flip mode markets this type of markets you usually see on feed, creators and traders are highly impressed by them. me as well haha. you enter - you get profits - you fix - you repeat. I know you feel me. > US x Venezuela military engagement by dec31 + Maduro out markets. large amount of information has emerged regarding an imminent strike on the Maduro's regime. official mapping shows potential targets for US strikes. venezuela's airspace has been empty, many embassies have begun evacuations due to the escalating military situation. the market is about to be resolved in next month. the crowd still sleeping due to lack of information. then become the first to enter by low odds. YES Maduro out in 2025: polymarket.com/event/maduro-… YES US x Venezuela military engagement by nov30+dec31: polymarket.com/event/us-x-ve… > best AI model end of 2025 market. google gemini ai is leading with a large gap, but there's a list of releases scheduled and coming up in the next month. low YES odds for almost all other ai models are unforgivable. too cheap not to buy them but first get acknowledged with schedule of releases. market link: polymarket.com/event/which-c… I'll say again. the market of this type are not asking you to hold predictions till the resolution date. you have to flip, watch the odds, calculate your own risk management. this is the second part of "3 steps to 6 figures on Polymarket" writing. check the 1st below and get ready to see the 3rd.
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Below is the healthiest P/L chart there is, and it’s pretty common on Polymarket: no wild spikes, no liquidation candles - just steady compounding gains. Unlike stocks, options, meme coins, crypto, perps, etc., traders deal with far fewer political shocks and manipulation out of their control. Everything is already priced in on Polymarket, and if it isn’t..that’s your edge. It’s also not bear/bull cyclical where you’re always trying to time it (and fail). Everything else feels more like a gamble atm and the most experienced Polymarket traders will tell you it isn’t gambling - it’s comprehension. If you can read the room, understand incentives, and follow information, you can profit. By no means is success guranteed, but my observation amongst the best traders is that # of reps and how serious you take it matters a lot. Point is, you’re still very early🔒 in
Deposited $15k into @Polymarket a year ago. Sitting near $300k today. S&P who? Prediction markets >>
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The two richest people in the world discuss betting on @Polymarket Simulation confirmed? Before I came here someone told me that there are betting sites where you can bet on me wearing a black suit and if you bet on me you could get almost a 17x Sorry, you lose the bet Better luck next time!
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Free 300% on Polymarket on Bitcoin drop How? Today I’d like to tell you about volatility trading When the market is very active and volatility is extremely high, especially during a continuous price drop, you can use Bitcoin daily/hourly bets as a positional trade with leverage What happened today: Bitcoin was falling for 10 hours straight and the price dropped from $99 600 to $94 600 That’s a 5% move. Not huge but enough to expect a bounce (you need a bit of experience here at least) How to catch a bounce? Usually there are two options - buy BTC spot or buy futures (high risk) Polymarket gives us a third option - bet on Bitcoin above X price on an exact date Pros? Limited risk It’s similar to call options in traditional markets What’s the logic? > Expiration time is close > Price is volatile (both Bitcoin and the bet itself) > A few hours left before resolution >>> If price bounces, you can get a solid reward In our case the target was simple - price just had to close above 94k Bitcoin dipped only to ~$94 600 Price on this bet dropped to 66c, giving a free 34c of profit potential - 51% upside Bitcoin bounced within an hour by only ~2.3%, moving to $96 800 (+$2 800 to outcome price) Let’s check Polymarket - the price instantly spiked to 100c. Free 51%. If we check a higher-risk bet (above $96,000) it bounced from 27c to 100c at the end Almost 300% profit The main idea here - catch the bounce, don’t wait for resolution That’s the key Have a good trading
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Polymarket 🤝 @ufc @TKOGrp The UFC has chosen to partner with Polymarket as its Exclusive and Official Prediction Market. The UFC will be integrating a Polymarket Scoreboard into the fights that will show the realtime % likelihood of who will win. When I watch UFC, I love looking at the Polymarket odds to gauge who's winning. Now, hundreds of millions of others will be introduced to the power of Polymarket too. Humbled to ring the @NYSE bell this morning with @danawhite, @AriEmanuel, Jeff Sprecher, @lynnmartin, Mark Shapiro, and @MatthewModabber. Dream come true. More to come.
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coming soon to @BullpenFi first pro terminal for prediction markets powered by @Polymarket join the waitlist for early access: bullpen.fi/polymarket all @Polymarket & @PolymarketTrade @X badge affiliates who reply to this post will receive priority beta access
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