Accelerate toward the future
San Francisco
Joined September 2010
- Tweets1.6K
- Following1.1K
- Followers2.7K
- Likes65.6K
Ryan McNutt retweeted
Be careful what you wish for, America…
“The rest of the world is ready and willing” to build data centers - ARM CEO
Ryan McNutt retweeted
57% of voters think AI will hurt society.
I think 57% of voters have never had a doctor say "stage 4 cancer" to their face. I have.
- AI is what has allowed me to design a personalized cancer vaccine from my own tumor's DNA.
- AI is what lets me understand everything about my health and show up to appointments prepared.
- AI catches the stuff that slips through, like drug interactions, lab trends and the questions nobody thought to ask.
And this is just basic shit my dumb ass is doing on my own. We've only just begun to see its true potential.
Be scared of AI all you want. Just know the price of slowing it down gets paid by sick people. May not be you or your loved ones today, but it will be in due time.
When you're in extreme agony from a terminal diagnosis with death lingering, I sure as shit bet you'll be wishing that AI had developed a treatment so you could spend just a bit more time with your friends and family.
It is hard to understand influencers who are antidata center. Based on recent earnings, compute is wildly profitable.
If it keeps getting harder to turn on new data centers, I imagine free services will get cannibalized for highly profitable compute leases.
Ryan McNutt retweeted
Just spent the last 7 days on the front lines of the vulnpocalypse fending off an active cyber attack on one of our products.
Some thoughts:
- Software factories are going to be required equipment for everyone. There’s just no way to keep up with the pace of highly automated adversaries without one.
- We were lucky because we had spent the last few months getting our software factory running well. It is nice to have for product development but proved to be absolutely essential this week.
- At the minimum you need to have a coding server in the cloud pre-provisioned with read only access to all your logs and all the services you depend on for observability. With that in place you are a prompt away from reasonably good situational awareness, ongoing monitoring with loops, and ability for coding agents to validate fixes against your actual, observed attack patterns.
- Shared coding server also unlocks multiplayer incident response where everyone can see every session and jump in as needed. Sharing session links that can be forked is much higher bandwidth than re-explaining things.
- You don’t need to be Ramp/Stripe/Uber scale to have a working software factory in the cloud. We are a team of 3. Ours is built with an @opencode server (thanks @thdxr!), a forked version of compound engineering optimized for automated workflows (thanks @kieranklaassen!) and a multiplayer agent in slack that handles crons (we have our own harness but pick your favorite here).
- To get our software factory up and running well, we had to stop all new product development for ~6 weeks and just focus on getting the validation systems working that enabled us to reliably shipping PR without human code review. This felt very painful in the moment but was totally worth the eventual speedup in velocity.
- KYC for @AnthropicAI & @OpenAI cyber programs is now easy and quick (at least for defensive access), but a day felt like a lifetime this week. Submit your app now before you really need it.
- Getting Mythos access unlocked a deeper level of analysis that helped us shift from reactive mitigation to proactive patching. Wish we had done this a few weeks earlier. Get started now!
Yall know that if cyber demand goes up because of AI, it just means more people will need tokens?
Which means AI -> more AI -> more AI….
This will be the biggest change ever. The use of AI will keep leading to the need and use of more AI
Open source might actually win the frontier
The frontier models are companies attached and have to worry about how people downstream use them.
Open source gets to build a model, put alignment worries somewhat on the back burner and ship without concern because of how the inference, products and models are all separate.
In other words, the slowing down for alignment might cause more problems for those entities because open source doesn't want to not attempt but probably won't get sued.
What do you think?
Ryan McNutt retweeted
How many GPUs do we need for 50% of the world to have an AI personal assistant?
Sam: "how many GPUs do you want working for you?"
Infinite.
My interview with Sam Altman (@sama):
0:00 Intro
0:52 When Will AI Discover New Treatments?
3:31 Why AI Hasn’t Killed Coding Jobs
11:47 Personal AI Assistants
15:39 Why Are We Busier Than Ever?
20:10 Why the AI Consciousness Debate Worries Sam
26:09 ChatGPT Is Too Agreeable
30:03 OpenAI’s Bet on Chips and Cheaper Compute
34:20 Why AI Needs a New Kind of Computer
37:41 Sam on Pressure: “Pick the Big Thing”
42:18 Why “AI Will Cure Cancer” Isn’t Enough
Ryan McNutt retweeted
One of my more controversial bets: the AI feed will be the form factor of 2027!
Most people don’t know what to prompt, and they won’t prompt their way into complicated agentic workflows. With chat, we ask users for digital labor: figure out what AI can do, explain the task, provide the context, repeat. That’s a lot to ask if we want billions of people using agents every day.
Meanwhile, people already spend hours in feeds. Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn. They know how to scroll, discover something useful, and act on it.
An intelligent system that knows you should bring you the next useful action. Here’s the email you need to answer, already drafted. Here are the latest sales numbers, with an update ready to send to your team. You approve, edit, dismiss, or jump into chat to go deeper. That’s how people will discover what agents can do, without having to invent a prompt first.
And you can put ads in a feed, one of the biggest business models on the internet. A system that understands your plans can recommend a relevant restaurant, product, or service, clearly labeled as sponsored. You get a reason to come back every day, useful work ready to approve, and a business model to fund the agents doing it.
What a GOAT
Nearly 4 minutes of $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang tearing into the AI doomsday narrative and explaining why he thinks the predictions don’t stand up to scrutiny.
Shots fired...damn talk about a move here
Please welcome GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna to the GPT-6 universe.
GPT-6 Sol and Luna build on the advances behind GPT-6 Astra, bringing much of its strengths into faster and more affordable models to support work at scale.
We’ve also made caching and inference more efficient, and we’re passing the savings directly to you: 50% lower API prices for Sol and Luna compared with GPT‑5.6 promotional pricing.
One idea, it’s all a fugazi.
Help “create” an IAEA for AI labs with transparency just like for nuclear energy.
If US labs publicly coordinate but China refuses then it gives us a stated reason to accelerate forward.
If they cooperate, we get transparency.
The China meeting is only 11 days away…
If public refusal, it would give the US a reason to use the Defense Production Act for data center build out
Isn't slowing down AI just basic game theory? If anyone defects then everyone else loses?
Who is even playing? If one player defects then they will win the whole thing.
If the game lasts long enough, new players could join and could have enough time to defect and still win.
Maybe its just a distraction from existing players while they keep progressing?
Ryan McNutt retweeted
"There's a belief that the world's GDP is limited at $100 tn. What's likely to happen is AI is going to cause that $100 tn to become $200 tn, $300 tn, $500 tn. There's no fundamental limit to the size of the GDP."
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
In its latest research, Anthropic projects 32% US GDP growth by 2030 in extreme AI Scenario
Some takeaways:
- The extreme scenario assumes AI performs nearly all knowledge-work tasks autonomously and creates essentially no new knowledge tasks for humans, a combination the authors say would likely require recursively self-improving AI adopted rapidly.
- US GDP is 32.4% higher in 2030 than without AI, yet total labor income barely changes while capital’s share of GDP rises from about 40% to 54.8%.
- The extreme scenario puts knowledge-worker unemployment at 17.9% by 2030, compared with 3.9% for other workers and 11.9% across the economy.
- knowledge-worker pay is 11.5% below the no-AI baseline in 2030, while other workers earn 33.6% more and average pay across workers is 9.7% higher.
- In its substantial and extreme scenarios, Anthropic explicitly says coders and call service center agents may have to switch into professions such as electrician and nurse because those occupations are less exposed to AI.
- Anthropic excludes hyper-capable robots from its model and reports that some external reviewers questioned whether AI-exposed occupations would shrink at all, with others suggesting the extreme scenario is better understood as a thought experiment.
The cheaper the model gets the more we will use it!
We are amidst an intelligence explosion. As this intelligence approaches the cost of zero we will use a lot more of it.
My personal thought is, if Deepseek can host a model at that cost, what is the cost at the frontier labs?
My personal bet since everyone is building on everyone and everything, it’s the same or better. If it happens to be worse, they just got handed the map to do it themselves. Knowing it’s possible is half of the battle when convincing people or agents.
So today is a great day not only for open source AI but all of AI and it doesn’t spell the end of data centers or chip demand but a renewed explosion of demand that will continue to be exponential.
As the prices fall and access for any commodity grow, we will find substantially more use cases for it. Coding, marketing, sales, personal, finance, etc. are here now and 2 years ago no one knew what people would actually want.
Turns out it’s always been everything and everywhere all at once just some use cases are worth more than others at first.
I think apples new duo is going to be the first device for agents. I could see a world where you talk to your agent with the small display and then open up the larger view to review the work quickly before going on about your day. Seems like a great opportunity and a good middle ground
These guys are clearly looney tunes or just want the US to lose
If true this is a massive win for US AI
