All things on what people think and how they vote. Exec Director Elections and Surveys at CBS News.
Joined February 2012
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Thanks @benwfreeman1 ! Was so great getting @nkagan_official and Kalshi insights on nerdshow!
CBS had a really good election night “Nerd show”
Shoutout @SalvantoCBS, the @VoteHub team, @nkagan_official, and the whole CBS team
What a blast to work with the gang from @VoteHub and the energy, innovation and intellect they bring... super fun!
It has been a pleasure working with @SalvantoCBS and the CBS Data Desk throughout this election cycle.
Election night - join me and the great @CHueyBurns for all results, all the time - on the @cbsnews Nerd Show - streaming live here and on our stream and on youtube --
youtube.com/watch?v=psO-rZpW…
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
For a deep dive into the CBS News Decision Desk, join @SalvantoCBS, @CHueyBurns and the team on “The Nerd Show” for a look at the key numbers, counties, and results driving how midterm races are unfolding in real time. Stream live on X and YouTube starting Tuesday at 5pm ET.
Democrats maintain lead in bid for a House - on pace for 229 in our model... range could reach into the 230s -but Reps do have very narrow path to hold, too.
That D lead has been durable but hasn't expanded either
i.e., there isn't a growing wave, at least not as of today.
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Against a backdrop of continued concern about inflation & the economy, Dems maintain a lead in a bid for a House majority.
Currently on pace for 229 seats in our CBS News House model estimate, which translates voters' congressional preferences into seats.
Potential range of outcomes could reach into the 230s, but Reps do still have a very narrow path to hold.
tinyurl.com/324de9rt
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Talarico's standing is helped by more Democrats saying they'll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.
tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico.
They are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, & most do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a Senator. tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.
tinyurl.com/3zv3caa2
Texas Senate is... tight — essentially tied — and now all about...turnout.
cbsnews.com/news/texas-senat…
This stuff is great. For detail down to the towns and precincts, reads on early vote, all of it. Super excited.
Yep - Join the great @CHueyBurns and me and the amazing gang at @VoteHub for all the data all the time...
NEW: CBS News to launch election night "nerd show" for politics junkies axios.com/2026/10/07/cbs-new…
I get that people want to talk about "the polls," are they right etc. Fine.
But some of what you're seeing is a simple, political story:
Numbers driven by lower turnout expression from Reps.
(And of course that can change.)
So the GOP voters who don't think there's enough admin focus on inflation are less likely to vote - these "reluctant reps" aren't crossing party lines, but may stay home... surely the key to watch in coming weeks if this changes...or doesn't.
Dissatisfaction with prices may be impacting the GOP vote.
Republicans are less likely to say they'll definitely turn out than Democrats are.
Reps who say the admin isn't putting enough focus on prices are less likely to say they'll definitely vote than those who think it is.
tinyurl.com/pv7w75z3
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
Who's responsible for today's economy, anyway?
Voters have voiced concern about the economy since the pandemic.
By a wide margin today, voters see Trump policies - not former President Joe Biden's - as responsible for today's economy.
tinyurl.com/pv7w75z3
Here's our latest poll and House model: Dems maintain edge, driven by continuing concerns about prices - and turnout gap w/Rs too
Our CBS News House model estimate shows the Dems retain their edge for a narrow majority of seats & their lead in national vote preference.
The advantage is driven by opposition to Trump admin policies & a Rep base that is less likely to turnout.
tinyurl.com/pv7w75z3
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
"The economy" today means prices.
When asked what they use to gauge the economy, it’s prices.
Most voters feel Trump's policies are making food & grocery prices go up. And feel the admin hasn't focused enough on lowering costs.
Most think the Iran war is driving up gas prices.
Dems continue to draw the votes of people who say prices have been difficult or a hardship.tinyurl.com/pv7w75z3
Anthony Salvanto retweeted
People think both AI companies & the government share responsibility for ensuring AI development is handled appropriately.
tinyurl.com/x284a8w
Could AI on its own harm humans? It's been what everyone's talking about...
Turns out there *is* some concern out there in public about that...
