I’m close to finishing what I’d consider the most important $IREN related deep dive to date.
The new report will be released to all X and Substack subscribers tomorrow.
More details coming very soon. Cheers!
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN secures $363 million financing for high density AI compute assets
The equipment financing agreement refinanced recently acquired, revenue-generating AI compute infrastructure, including GPU-based servers and networking systems deployed in high-density data center environments.
Wingspire Equipment Finance completed the transaction with a six-lender group, led by major commitments from Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital.
Scludweed retweeted
I’ve said this before.. I believe $IREN will be generating a bare minimum of $16b ARR by year end 2027. This projection is derived from a bottoms-up approach by calculating approximate GPU quantities per model across each site in $IREN's 2027 roadmap multiplied by various GPU rental rates for each model, and adding it on top of the $4b ARR minimum for 2026 (even though they'll likely generate more than this). The upper end of my model projects $22b ARR, so I’m expecting a range of $16b to $22b in ARR as of right now. This range can definitely shift higher but I aligned with Dan’s recent comments regarding the trade-off between $ per IT MW and customer prepayments. See chart below.👇
GPU Model & Quantity Assumption
The GPU quantities for each site were calculated based on the specifications across 2026 sites, assuming that gets copied and pasted into future sites.
-> ~80,000 B300s (Childress)
-> ~7,600 GB300s (Canal Flats)
-> ~132,700 VR200s (Horizon 5-6 and Sweetwater 1)
I used the EV/ARR valuation approach to arrive at projected share prices, and since there's debate on here about what multiple $IREN would receive by early 2028, I provided a range from 6x to 15x to show the possibilities. In my opinion, because ARR is expected to 4x from year end 2026 into year end 2027, and then potentially 2x the year after that, I'd think this growth rate would command higher multiples than most are using assuming, especially if we enter a bull market.
Balance Sheet
- $23b in debt (includes funding for all of 2028 buildout)
- $10b in cash
Share Dilution
I assumed 500m shares outstanding, which takes into account today's 400m shares, NVIDIA's investment (+30m shares), and dilution associated with funding all of 2028 buildout (+35m shares if diluted at an average of $50/share). All this adds up to 465m shares -> round up to 500m shares for conservatism. Keep in mind, I’m assuming customer prepayments remain the same with what we’ve seen in the past when really they’ll likely increase. This could also potentially mean less debt and/or dilution but I’m trying to be conservative with my estimates.
Also, if the GPU rental rates I laid out below represent realistic rates that $IREN could contract next year, then it makes the share prices (color coded below) that much more realistic. As I alluded to before, the range of GPU rental rates I applied may shift higher considering the rate in which pricing power is increasing, but I'm taking into account the possibility of contracting lower than expected GPU rental rates in exchange for higher customer prepayments for the foreseeable future.
On a final note, at the center of my valuation table I boxed the share price that signifies a middle ground expectation (~$375 per share). This does not necessarily represent my personal base case since I expect $IREN to hit closer to $22b ARR by year end 2027, and with a 12x EV/ARR, this would put the price closer to $500 by 2028. I've been vocal about this on here. I'm just pointing out the middle ground to challenge those claiming that $IREN will be less than $300 by 2028. To me, that doesn’t make sense as it clearly assumes $IREN contracts very low rates throughout next year.
Anyway, I hope this framework helps investors better understand the potential possibilities on what share prices we can see for $IREN based on their GPU deployments next year.
As always, constructive feedback is welcomed. @BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 @Agrippa_Inv @OInvests @ChairmansLedger @ilzmcfly @mcF_dan @StockAnalystPro
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN: Why pricier GPUs can be good for the company that owns the power
@_Sgr_A_Star thank you for sharing this. I think you connected something I've been scratching the surface on.
If @_Sgr_A_Star is correct, then the following holds (we still need to see the next deals):
GPU costs have jumped: B300s were ~$48K a year ago and ~$81K now (per his purchase list). Deals still price for ~2-year payback on the chips, so "rents" rise with them.
Use a classic variable vs. fixed cost structure:
• Variable (scale with chip price): the chips, the GPU loan interest, insurance
• Fixed (tied to the MW, not the chip): power, staff, repairs, the building
Revenue and variable costs rise together. Fixed costs don't move. So a bigger rent spreads the same fixed costs thinner, and more of each dollar becomes profit.
Rough illustration, one MW over a 3-yr contract:
• 2025-priced chips: ~$4M profit on ~$40M of capital
• 2026-priced chips: ~$10M profit on ~$56M of capital
More dollars per MW, and a better return on the capital.
Prepay makes it better. Lenders fund ~85% of the chips, and prepay is a % of chip cost, so both grow with chip prices. The building doesn't. At 50% prepay:
• 2025-priced chips: loan + prepay cover ~$32M of a ~$40M MW, leaving ~$8M for IREN
• 2026-priced chips: they cover ~$54M of ~$56M, leaving ~$2M
Pricier chips mean the same prepay % pays for the building, so IREN puts in far less of its own money per MW.
The catch: rents have to keep tracking GPU cost, and customers have to keep prepaying. That's why price and prepay on the next deal matter so much.
The scarce asset is the energized hall. Pricier chips make it worth more.
Estimates. Not advice. I hold $IREN.
Yes, I think the goal is a 2-year payback period.
The supply/demand being so tilted has improved those unit economics, but deals last year or deals today, don't stray too far off 2-year payback periods.
The difference being that the same GPUs last year cost half of what they do today, but the price of compute has doubled in response to the rising gpu capex.
As an example, last year they paid 44K per B200, this year for the NVDA B200 GPUs they'll be paying 71K per.
Last year they paid 48K for B300's, this year they're paying 81K.
The added costs get passed through to customers.
Scludweed retweeted
Let's not forget @IREN_Ltd has a strategic partnership with @nvidia to deploy up to 5GW of $NVDA DSX aligned AI infrastructure and "accelerated" compute.. including $IREN 's 2GW Sweetwater campus!!! 👀👀👀
What if an AI factory arrived with much of the complex integration already done?
NVIDIA DSX POD brings Vera Rubin infrastructure pre-integrated and tested in factory-built containers to prepared sites—reducing onsite deployment from six months to as little as 14 days.
Learn how DSX POD accelerates the path to productive AI capacity: nvda.ws/3UQEnaT
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN: Debt Market is Open for $IREN!
IREN has paid for early Prince George GPUs with cash. Today they are able to do debt financing against those and obtain 366m!
These GPUs are secured by FireworksAI and TogetherAI contracts. So no you don’t even need Hyperscaler back contracts.
Sunday, Elon: debt markets have "almost entirely shut off" for neoclouds.
Today: $IREN closes a $363M refinance with a six-lender group.
Not new debt for new hardware. Cash released from GPUs already deployed and earning revenue, backed by multi-year contracts.
Physical assets turned back into liquidity to fund the next build.
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN just secured $363 MILLION in GPU-backed financing! 🚨
Remember when Elon Musk warned that 200+ neoclouds would face "guppy-level death and consolidation" because debt markets were drying up?
He said only a few would survive.
Well, $IREN just secured $363 MILLION in financing in the very market Musk warned about.
I'm betting $IREN will be one of the survivors.
Scludweed retweeted
NEW UPDATED $IREN PROJECTIONS, EXPLANATION, AND ANALYSIS
Bear Case 3x, BASE CASE 3OX, BULL CASE 70X
I go fully in depth in the X SPACE BELOW @BitcoinAIGuy
I run through all of the revenue, the margins, the depreciation, the capex, the prepayments, and where I have the price of compute going over the next few years.
Scludweed retweeted
Massive news for the entire NeoCloud sector:
$IREN secures $363M in non-dilutive equipment financing backed by revenue-generating GPUs.
This means no dilution of shareholders.
I think this is very positive for the broader neocloud / AI infrastructure sector:
- It confirms that specialized lenders are still willing to finance deployed, contracted AI hardware on attractive asset-backed terms.
- Validates the model of using revenue-generating GPUs + long-term contracts as collateral, reducing reliance on equity dilution or expensive unsecured debt.
- Supports the thesis that companies with strong contracted demand can continue scaling capacity more efficiently.
This is extremely bullish for companies like $NBIS or $CRWV.
Scludweed retweeted
I like how strategically $IREN is approaching its financing.
so instead of constantly drawing down cash reserves or diluting shareholders, it's leveraging existing revenue generating GPU infrastructure to unlock capital for future expansion.
It's a smart way to recycle invested capital, preserve liquidity and support growth without relying entirely on fresh equity.
🚨 $IREN: IREN SECURES $363 MILLION IN AI EQUIPMENT FINANCING FROM SIX LENDERS AS WALL STREET QUESTIONS NEOCLOUD DEBT.
Another interesting financing update from $IREN, especially with everything happening around neocloud companies and the market getting increasingly nervous about how they're funding these enormous AI infrastructure projects.
IREN and Wingspire Equipment Finance have completed a $363 million financing transaction involving six lenders, including Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital.
This financing is backed by GPU servers and networking equipment that IREN has already installed and put into operation.
IREN has already deployed the hardware and those assets are generating revenue. Now the company is using that equipment to secure financing and recover some of the capital it previously invested.
Remember, one of the biggest concerns around $IREN, $CRWV and the other neocloud companies has been the amount of capital they need to keep buying GPUs.
These companies can sign billions in contracts but somebody still needs to pay $NVDA, install the equipment, bring the data centers online and keep everything running until customer payments start coming in.
That gap between spending the money and collecting the revenue is what worries investors.
Instead of relying entirely on its cash balance or issuing more shares to finance every deployment, $IREN's accessing capital against infrastructure that's already operating.
Basically the same hardware that generates revenue can also help the company fund additional infrastructure.
I like it. IREN previously reported more than $4 billion in contracted ARR tied to its 2026 capacity, with approximately $1 billion already operating.
Their management is also targeting around 300MW of cumulative IT capacity in 2026 and more than 800MW in 2027. So when I look at these financing transactions, I just think about how IREN gets from the contracted revenue figure to actual operating revenue without constantly returning to shareholders for more capital.
There's another angle here. Six lenders participated in this transaction. That doesn't mean IREN has eliminated its financing problems, but it does show that institutional lenders are willing to provide financing against its operating AI infrastructure.
I think it's encouraging considering how nervous the market has become about neocloud credit.
Scludweed retweeted
🚨 $IREN: IREN SECURES $363 MILLION IN AI EQUIPMENT FINANCING FROM SIX LENDERS AS WALL STREET QUESTIONS NEOCLOUD DEBT.
Another interesting financing update from $IREN, especially with everything happening around neocloud companies and the market getting increasingly nervous about how they're funding these enormous AI infrastructure projects.
IREN and Wingspire Equipment Finance have completed a $363 million financing transaction involving six lenders, including Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital.
This financing is backed by GPU servers and networking equipment that IREN has already installed and put into operation.
IREN has already deployed the hardware and those assets are generating revenue. Now the company is using that equipment to secure financing and recover some of the capital it previously invested.
Remember, one of the biggest concerns around $IREN, $CRWV and the other neocloud companies has been the amount of capital they need to keep buying GPUs.
These companies can sign billions in contracts but somebody still needs to pay $NVDA, install the equipment, bring the data centers online and keep everything running until customer payments start coming in.
That gap between spending the money and collecting the revenue is what worries investors.
Instead of relying entirely on its cash balance or issuing more shares to finance every deployment, $IREN's accessing capital against infrastructure that's already operating.
Basically the same hardware that generates revenue can also help the company fund additional infrastructure.
I like it. IREN previously reported more than $4 billion in contracted ARR tied to its 2026 capacity, with approximately $1 billion already operating.
Their management is also targeting around 300MW of cumulative IT capacity in 2026 and more than 800MW in 2027. So when I look at these financing transactions, I just think about how IREN gets from the contracted revenue figure to actual operating revenue without constantly returning to shareholders for more capital.
There's another angle here. Six lenders participated in this transaction. That doesn't mean IREN has eliminated its financing problems, but it does show that institutional lenders are willing to provide financing against its operating AI infrastructure.
I think it's encouraging considering how nervous the market has become about neocloud credit.
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN: slowly, slowly, then all at once.
Stay strong, know what you own, and be open to the people who cover this name super well.
Execution will be more powerful than mean reversion. Nov 5 is the next proof point.
I have faith, and this is my mindset.
Scludweed retweeted
Wingspire equipment finance is a portfolio company of Blue Owl, formerly known as Liberty Commercial Finance. Offers sale-leaseback arrangements, equipment lines of credit. Industry agnostic. They did $700M of total volume all of 2025, have done several GPU deals this year; this is relatively large one for them. Wingspire has a warehouse lending facility from BofA and WFC.
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN On October 27, Mirantis announced a new service that helps companies move away from VMware! 🚨✅
an expensive software platform used to run their data centers.
One unnamed cloud infrastructure provider, facing a reported 600% increase in VMware pricing, is already working with Mirantis to migrate three data-center sites. ✅💰
Another revenue stream building for $IREN
THE RERATING WILL HAPPEN 🚀
Scludweed retweeted
$IREN, interesting development from Mirantis today.
A major cloud infrastructure provider facing a 600% VMware price increase is now migrating across THREE data center sites with Mirantis.🦾🦾🦾
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
Scludweed retweeted
The AI infrastructure depreciation bear thesis is getting DESTROYED by actual GPU rental data.
For the last couple of years, bears have argued that companies spending billions on GPUs will get crushed by depreciation as newer chips come out but the actual GPU rental market is telling us a completely different story.
According to data from a16z, GPU rental rates are holding up significantly better than traditional six year depreciation schedules would suggest. $NVDA H100 rental rates are 54% above their modeled depreciated value, H200s are 143% above, B200s are 111% above, and even the RTX PRO 6000s are 73% above. What's even more interesting is that H200 and B200 rental rates have actually increased substantially despite newer generations of GPUs entering the market.
This is EXTREMELY bullish for AI infrastructure companies. The entire bear thesis assumes older GPUs will quickly lose their economic value. But demand for compute is growing so quickly that even older GPUs remain useful for inference, fine tuning, and smaller AI models. Not every workload requires the latest Blackwell or Rubin chips. If rental rates remain elevated for longer than expected, these companies could generate significantly more cash flow from their existing GPU fleets without constantly replacing their hardware. It could also improve financing economics as lenders become more confident in the long term revenue potential of these assets.
Obviously, rental rates alone don't determine profitability, and utilization and operating costs still matter. But the bigger takeaway is that the market may be significantly underestimating how long these GPUs can remain economically productive. And if inference demand continues growing at this pace, the economics of owning AI infrastructure could end up being a lot better than investors currently expect.
