Sinan S. Mahmoud

Two years after Kurdistan's parliamentary elections in October 2024, government formation negotiations between the KDP and PUK have completely broken down with Bafel Talabani announcing the PUK will withdraw from the regional government. In the intervening years, I had numerous discussions with KDP and PUK leadership while I was still at the State Department and then with the Atlantic Council. At various points, the two sides appeared close to reaching a compromise. Yet, during all my visits there was only one visit during which the two sides did not bitterly complain about each other to me. Put simply, they just don't trust each other. And yet, I think there is another factor that had prevented a total rupture thus far: significant USG intervention. The Trump administration was much less willing to or interested in playing the role of mediator between the KDP and PUK. Previous US administrations essentially accepted that we would really get into the weeds of internal KRG politics and even knock heads if required. Recall that the US played a significant role in brokering an agreement to hold the October 2024 elections in the first place after significant delay. I get the Trump admin instinct: why should the US be involved and why is this our problem? And yet, the divisions within Kurdistan undermine the strength of one the strongest US partners in Iraq. I am really disappointed to see this news. It's bad for Kurds, bad for Kurdistan, and bad for the American interests.

Last week, Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi visited Damascus to meet with President al-Sharaa, marking the first visit of an Iraqi PM to Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Despite this positive political step, the Iraq-Syria relationship remains complicated and marked by lingering concerns on both sides of the border. Join me on November 18 at 11 EST when I'll moderate a virtual discussion with @IbrahimAlAssil, @yesar, @LahibHigel, @Karam__Shaar to discuss the political and economic foundations of this relationship and whether and how the two countries can warm previously cool ties. Register at this link: atlanticcouncil.org/event/th…