"Do you want to be right or make money"...Ned Davis "We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." …Ayn Rand
Northern Hemisphere
Joined January 2020
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Ther's lot of warning signs.
A recap of AI credit markets in October 2026:
> CoreWeave bonds yielding 15%+
> Oracle issued force majeure on a data center contract
> 18 HY/LL deals at double-digit yields
> Insurers exposure-maxxing to datacenters
> Banks taking 5 months to offload risk
> CDS on Oracle, Nvidia, Meta all at record levels
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
Governance expert Nell Minow says Anthropic's IPO filing strips shareholders of every basic right
"Shareholders have three rights... All three are obliterated in this offering"
"There's not enough insurance in the world to cover the risks of this company"
"This is too big to fail all over again"
The ValueEdge Advisors chair went through the 335-page S-1 and calls the public benefit corporation setup, with its founders committee picking a majority of the board, a "Frankenstein structure." $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN
The biggest AI IPO yet may come with almost no accountability to the people buying in
via @CNBC, featuring @nminow
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
🤗An IT reseller listed a 300-rack AI supercomputer on eBay for $59.7 million or best offer, Tom’s Hardware reported. It held 9,600 Nvidia A100 chips from 2020, and Tom’s figured the chips and memory inside were worth roughly half the asking price. The seller ended the listing this morning and said the item is no longer available.
My Take
I laughed at the free shipping (and the cash on pickup). We’ll never know what it went for, and I doubt it was close to the ask. I think the thing to take from this is how fast these chips age. Whoever owned them upgraded after six years, and the chips companies buy today will look just as dated a few years from now. If you paid cash, that’s the cost of doing business. A lot of this year’s AI buildout ran on borrowed money with chips as the collateral, though, and lenders didn’t price in how quickly that collateral loses value.
Hedgie🤗
Tax loss harvesting, some insights from @GeminiApp
In terms of market impact, tax-loss harvesting traditionally peaks between late October and mid-December.
While institutional wealth managers and automated robo-advisors harvest losses year-round whenever market dips occur, retail investors and mutual funds operate on calendar deadlines that concentrate selling pressure late in the fourth quarter.
Key Timeline: How Tax-Loss Harvesting Cycles Through the Year
1. October 31: Mutual Fund Year-End Deadline
Why it matters: Most mutual funds have a fiscal year ending October 31 for tax calculation purposes.
Market impact: Mutual fund managers actively unload losing positions in October to realize capital losses and lower capital gain distributions to shareholders. This often fuels the historical "October volatility" in underperforming individual stocks.
2. November – Mid-December: Peak Retail & Advisory Selling
Why it matters: Individual retail investors, private wealth advisors, and financial planners review annual portfolios in Q4 to offset realized gains before the December 31 tax-year deadline.
Market impact: Underperforming sectors and "beaten-down" stocks often experience heightened selling pressure during this 6-week window, regardless of underlying company fundamentals.
3. Late December – January: The Rebound Effect
Why it matters: Under IRS rules, investors must wait 31 days (the Wash-Sale Rule) before repurchasing a stock sold at a loss.
Market impact: Once the 30-day window expires in late December or January, money often flows back into these heavily sold, beaten-down stocks, contributing to seasonal phenomena like the "Santa Claus Rally" or the "January Effect" (where small-cap and value stocks rebound sharply).
How to Spot It in the Market
When tax-loss harvesting is underway, look for these key indicators:
The "Winners vs. Losers" Divergence: Stocks that are already down significantly for the year hit fresh 52-week lows on heavy volume, even without new company-specific negative news. Conversely, the year's big winners often hold steady.
Volume Spikes in Underperformers: Trading volume accelerates in lagging sectors (e.g., struggling biotech, clean tech, or specific regional banking stocks during downturns) as funds and retail traders clean house simultaneously.
Ex-Dividend Distributions: In November and December, capital gain distributions are paid out, prompting investors to rebalance taxable accounts.
For those criticizing the Trump asminsitration for granting asylum for white South Africans...
THIS MORNING!
His ears cut off.
Beaten.
Shot in the back.
Stabbed.
This morning, cattle farmer Donovan Marx was viciously attacked on his farm between Potchefstroom and Ventersdorp in the North West. He was severely beaten. His ears were cut off. He was shot in the back/shoulder (doctors were still trying to remove the bullet) and stabbed in the leg with a sharp object. He’s fighting for his life in a Potchefstroom hospital.
A family member left the farm shortly before 8am. Attackers then struck. A farm worker was tied up but managed to free himself and raise the alarm. The attackers fled in Marx’s truck. They’re still free. VF Plus says the full details of the torture are so disturbing they won’t even publish them.
This is not “ordinary crime.” This is the same pattern of extreme brutality; ears severed, severe beatings, shootings, stabbings that has been targeting White farmers for years. English media is already silent. No front-page outrage. No presidential condemnation. If the roles were reversed, it would dominate news for weeks.
"The biggest tech companies will still get loans because lenders trust their balance sheets. The smaller GPU rental companies won’t. Expect more AI firms to sell stock for cash instead, which shrinks every existing shareholder’s slice." $CRWV
🦔Bloomberg talked to more than 30 bankers and money managers who finance AI data centers, and all of them said raising money has gotten much harder in just a few months. At least 18 data center deals now have to pay lenders more than 10% a year. The cost of insuring Oracle, SpaceX and Meta debt against default hit records last week.
My Take
For two years the hard limit on AI was physical, mostly power and grid connections. Now money is short too. Banks are close to the most they’ll lend to this sector, and some insurers that take on part of the risk say they’re already full. Some tenants can walk away if a data center opens 90 to 180 days late, and Oracle already filed a force majeure notice to put off payments on a delayed site in New Mexico. Lenders thought a big tech tenant guaranteed the payments, and in some deals a construction delay is enough to undo that.
The biggest tech companies will still get loans because lenders trust their balance sheets. The smaller GPU rental companies won’t. Expect more AI firms to sell stock for cash instead, which shrinks every existing shareholder’s slice. Chipmakers that promised to back their customers’ debt take on more of the risk, and Nvidia’s default insurance hit a record too. New deals at these higher rates also push down the price of older AI bonds, which bond funds and insurers hold for a lot of people’s retirement.
Hedgie🤗
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
They are liars. Any questions?
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
Dem plan: surrender to Iran and destroy domestic energy production. None of this is good for gas prices or national security.
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
"I'm still angry with the Biden admin for what happened. I think it severely damaged our country. They said there's nothing we can do about it and then Trump comes in and BOOM, it's closed"
-Jamie Dimon on immigration law enforcement under Trump's presidency
The timing of this whole AI credit freakout is almost comical. Market spends 2 weeks having a collective nervous breakdown over neocloud CDS, financing gaps, circular capex and the impending death of the entire AI industrial complex.
Every macro tourist with a bloomberg terminal is suddenly an expert in GPU depreciation and nobody is making any money from AI except NVIDIA selling chips to companies that will all go bankrupt.
Then Anthropics S1 drops and, well, would you look at that. Turns out the revenue base might be considerably more diversified than the bears have been telling us. Awkward fucking timing.
Remember the argument that 80% of Anthropic's revenue came from just 8 companies? Meta supposedly 10% by itself? According to the quoted s1 numbers, the top 5 customers accounted for just 21% of Q3 revenue, down from 36% in Q1.
Nobody individually exceeded 10% over the first nine months. That's a pretty dramatic broadening of the customer base in six months.
My view is that this shakeout may have arrived right before the market gets much better evidence of actual AI monetization. And if that's true, the setup becomes pretty nasty for the overcrowded bear trade. Because if a few financing deals close, CDS stops screaming, the existential discount starts evaporating and everyone discovers that they were shorting a capital intensive industrial transition as if it were a demandless Ponzi scheme.
For $IREN, $NBIS and $CRWV, this is a scenario worth watching.
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
🦔SpaceX signed a commitment to lease about $40 billion of Nvidia’s next-generation chips through a fund managed by Apollo, which SpaceX calls the largest GPU financing ever. Payments run about five years and start when the chips arrive in 2027. SpaceX carried about $38 billion of debt at the end of September, so this roughly doubles what it owes.
My Take
SpaceX’s CFO says its AI infrastructure pays for itself in less than a year. If that held up, SpaceX could buy the chips out of its own profits within a couple of years rather than commit to five years of payments to Apollo. Five years is also a long time for a chip. Nvidia puts out a new generation about every year, so by 2029 these will be a couple of generations old, and SpaceX will still owe about $8 billion a year in principal on them.
Musk posted the same weekend that more than 200 neoclouds face “guppy-level death.” He’s right that the smaller GPU renters are in trouble, and he just put SpaceX’s balance sheet behind the idea that it’s big enough to survive the cull. The money behind this lease comes from Apollo, BlackRock and KKR, the same private credit firms that want into your 401(k). If the bet goes wrong, some of that loss could end up in regular people’s retirement accounts.
Hedgie🤗
So much for Brent Crude prices falling any further.
BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have reportedly struck Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura with a ballistic missile, triggering a fire at one of the Kingdom’s most critical oil export hubs, per Bloomberg.
Ras Tanura is the cornerstone of Saudi oil exports, housing a refinery with a 550,000 barrel-per-day capacity and a terminal that handled over 5 million barrels daily before the war. With Yanbu on the Red Sea already hit, Saudi Arabia’s two main export arteries are now under fire.
It comes as Riyadh reportedly offered Yemen’s Houthis $1 billion through Iran to halt attacks on the Kingdom, but the Houthis struck the kingdom's most vital terminal anyway.
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
Good Morning from Germany, where Mercedes is also being hit hard by the China shock. It joins BMW & VW in cutting its outlook, now targeting a car margin of just 2–3%, vs up to 5% before. Shares tumble 5.4%, taking this year’s loss to more than a third. Germany’s Big Three are now worth just €106bn combined. Tesla alone is worth €1.4tn, more than 13 times as much. China, once their profit engine, has become a major liability.
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
Senator Padilla continues to demonstrate his profound respect for the founding documents.
It is truly impressive how easily he can call for government investigations into private citizens simply because he dislikes their speech or their business decisions. The First Amendment, the Fourth Amendment, and the Fifth Amendment must be very flexible concepts in his mind. Perhaps the Bill of Rights was only meant as a temporary suggestion until certain people found it inconvenient.
This kind of selective reading of the Constitution is exactly what we can expect if Democrats get back in charge, I guess. Very reassuring for anyone who still thinks the government is supposed to follow the rules that apply to everyone else.
Hey mom, some new slots are coming to the casino.
“The market needed this, just like it needed $SPCX,” Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets said, referring to $ANT. “This is a big confidence booster, and I anticipate the demand is going to be there because people have been waiting and talking about this one for a long time.” from @Barchart
St. John O’Callaghan retweeted
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support — no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-…
