sam

$SMCI — the weekly trendline finally gave way. Super Micro is the rack shop for the AI buildout. Not the GPU. The box the GPU sits in. They just started shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 liquid-cooled racks. The order book is still the number that matters: $60 billion+ into fiscal 2027. Guide is $65–72 billion of revenue against a $27 billion market cap. Fiscal 2026 already did $39 billion, up 78%. AI is ~60% of the last quarter and management says secured orders push that toward 80%. Gross margin recovered to 17.5%. You are paying ~13x earnings for the assembler with the biggest backlog in the group. Next print November 3. The weekly is the other half. High $122.90. Low $17.25, then $19.48. A two-year descending line capped every bounce — $66, $62, $58, $51. This week price closed $43.26 (+11%) on 202 million shares and punched through that line. SCTR 96.3. Rising support from the 2024 low is intact. The measured move off this break is +158% — that lands near $111, just under the old high. $34.50 is the first level that cannot go. Hold the trendline as support and the path is $51, then $62, then the measured target. Fail back under $35 and it is another rejection at the same ceiling. Simple read: Vera Rubin is shipping, the book is $60B, and the weekly lid is gone. That is the setup. NFA.