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$ESTA Q3 2026 earnings: Establishment Labs raises its sales plan, while unpaid interest lifts cash Establishment Labs, the maker of Motiva breast implants, grew sales through the summer slowdown and generated cash for the first time. Third-quarter revenue rose 34% from a year ago to $72 million as US clinic orders climbed, allowing chief executive Peter Caldini to lift the full-year sales outlook above $274 million. Overhead costs grew much slower than revenue, but by our math the new outlook points to growth slowing to about 15% in the fourth quarter. • Revenue: $𝟕𝟐.𝟎𝐌 (+33.9% from a year ago) • US revenue: $𝟐𝟔.𝟎𝐌 (+119% from a year ago) • Free cash flow: $𝟓.𝟏𝐌 (first positive quarter; -$13.2M a year ago) • Full-year revenue outlook: 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 >$𝟐𝟕𝟒𝐌 (prior $269–271M; ~30% growth) ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢 Bullish The story got better because US clinics kept ordering through a seasonally slow quarter and the company signed a long-term silicone supply deal with NuSil, removing a production risk. Two cautions temper the milestone: positive free cash flow relied on adding about $6 million of unpaid interest to the debt balance by our math, and higher-margin minimally invasive sales dropped by a quarter from the spring. The question now is whether the third-quarter dip in minimally invasive sales and the lower 70.7% gross margin outlook reflect temporary summer and distributor swings or slower adoption of premium procedures. Either fourth-quarter surgical demand lifts minimally invasive sales back above $12 million, or lower-margin international distributor orders keep capping profitability. Fourth-quarter procedure mix and cash generation before non-cash interest will settle it. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🟢🟢 𝐔𝐒 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐎𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 Establishment Labs sells Motiva breast implants and Preservé, a tissue-preserving breast augmentation system, to plastic surgeons. Critics worried that US growth would slow as clinic sign-ups leveled off. Instead, US revenue reached $26.0 million, up 119% from a year ago and 5.3% above the second quarter during a summer period when elective surgeries normally drop. • Active US clinics: more than 2,100, adding at least 100 from last quarter • US sales per clinic: about $12,400 by our math, steady with the second quarter • Plastic surgeons trained on Preservé: more than 400, up from 300 three months ago The medical device maker also won Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for smaller Motiva implants, which opens the product to more patients. Because existing clinics kept ordering at the same rate through the summer while 100 more surgeons completed Preservé training, the company raised its full-year sales plan by at least $4 million. What to watch: fourth-quarter US sales and the year-end count of trained Preservé surgeons against the 500 full-year target. Hitting 500 trained surgeons while lifting revenue per clinic during the peak winter season would confirm that existing clinics are ordering more devices per doctor. 🟢 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 "Third-quarter results reflect strong global revenue growth, increasing operating leverage and an important milestone in cash generation as we invest in innovation and commercial expansion," chief executive Peter Caldini said. Operating leverage means growing sales much faster than day-to-day overhead costs. The breast implant maker cut its operating loss to $2.6 million from $4.0 million a year ago. On a reported basis, sales, general and administrative expenses — pay for sales reps and office staff — fell 2.4 percentage points of revenue to 66.7%. Research and development costs dropped 2.5 percentage points to 6.0% of sales. Excluding $2.8 million of legal and restructuring charges, operating expenses dropped 8.8 percentage points of revenue to 68.8%, lifting adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and one-offs) to $6.4 million. What to watch: fourth-quarter operating expenses excluding one-offs against the unchanged $195–200 million full-year plan. By our math, the middle of that range leaves $52.2 million of fourth-quarter spending, which would push costs up to 70.0% of sales unless revenue beats the new floor. concern eased — 𝐍𝐮𝐒𝐢𝐥 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞-𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠 Establishment Labs relies on a single supplier, NuSil, for the medical-grade silicone used inside its breast implants. Because the previous multi-year contract was nearing its end, the lack of a signed renewal was a standing risk to factory output in Costa Rica. This quarter, the implant maker signed a new supply agreement with NuSil "to support long-term manufacturing capacity and future growth". Locking in the silicone supplier removes a production bottleneck just as the company expands its product line with smaller US Motiva sizes and larger minimally invasive implants. Combined with the earlier factory reopening, the contract gives Caldini the raw material supply needed to support his 25% revenue growth plan for 2027. What to watch: contract duration and minimum purchase commitments in the third-quarter 10-Q filing. A multi-year term without unit price hikes would confirm that the new contract protects gross margins above 70%. 🟢 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧'𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 One standing growth driver outside the United States was not broken out in the earnings release. • European direct market sales: grew 16% to 27% in recent quarters, and the third-quarter 10-Q filing or conference call will show how much direct European clinics contributed to the 9.7% international sales increase. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🔴🔴 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐔𝐧𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 Establishment Labs highlighted $7.7 million of operating cash flow and $5.1 million of free cash flow, calling it the first positive quarter in company history. That milestone rests on its credit agreement with lender Oaktree, which lets the company add interest payments to its loan balance — known as payment-in-kind (PIK) interest — rather than paying cash. • Third-quarter interest expense on the income statement: $6.8 million • Non-cash interest and debt fees added back to cash flow: $6.3 million in Q3 by our math • Long-term debt on the balance sheet: $267.8 million, up $6.1 million from June Without the ability to roll that $6.3 million of interest into the loan principal, free cash flow would have been negative by about $1.2 million by our math. Deferring cash interest preserves the $75.8 million cash balance today, but it compounds the debt balance before cash interest payments resume in April 2028. What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cash flow and whether it exceeds the quarterly interest bill of roughly $6.8 million. Generating enough cash to cover interest before the PIK option expires is required to lower leverage below four times earnings. 🔴 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐐𝟐 The company's minimally invasive platform — Mia Femtech and Preservé, which let surgeons insert implants through smaller incisions at more than twice the price of standard implants — is its main price and margin driver. Management previously said this platform would approach 15% of full-year sales. In the third quarter, minimally invasive revenue grew 124% from a year ago to about $9 million. However, that $9 million figure dropped 25.6% from $12.1 million in the second quarter by our math, pulling the platform's share of company revenue down from 17.9% to 12.5%. The sequential drop occurred even though the device maker trained 100 more US surgeons on Preservé and introduced larger implant sizes to treat more patients. What to watch: fourth-quarter minimally invasive revenue against the second-quarter peak of $12.1 million. A rebound above $12 million in the busy fourth quarter would show the third-quarter dip was summer seasonality rather than slower procedure adoption per trained doctor. 🔴 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥-𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐮𝐭 Outside the United States, Establishment Labs sells both directly to clinics and through third-party distributors, who buy implants at wholesale discounts. International revenue rose 9.7% from a year ago to $46.0 million, helped by "stronger-than-anticipated OUS distributor sales" after several weak quarters in the Middle East. Those wholesale orders brought in extra revenue dollars but lowered the average profit per implant. Reported gross margin fell 1.0 percentage point from a year ago to 69.1% because cost of revenue — the cost of making the implants — included $1.3 million (1.7 percentage points of sales) of inventory write-offs tied to restructuring. Excluding those charges, gross margin rose 0.7 percentage points to 70.8%, but management cut its full-year gross margin outlook to 70.7% from its 71.2%–72.2% first-quarter plan. What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin excluding one-offs, which the full-year outlook implies at 70.7% by our math. If lower-margin distributor orders keep outpacing direct clinic sales, higher US revenue will not lift overall gross margins above 71%. 🔴 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧'𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫 Three standing concerns received no quantitative update in the third-quarter press release. • FDA breast reconstruction approval: the company said only that the review is "progressing in line with expectations", leaving approval timing and its share of the 25% growth plan for 2027 open. • Related-party Preservé royalty: payments under the 1% sales royalty to a relative of the former chief executive are disclosed in the 10-Q footnotes rather than the release. • US competitor price discounting: rivals offered local discounts in prior quarters, and the conference call will show whether price pressure affected US average selling prices. — • — • — 💲 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): $𝟖𝟓.𝟎𝐌 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 / $𝟕𝟕.𝟗𝐌 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬 ⇘ decelerating Working capital grew much slower than sales in the third quarter. Inventory — finished implants and raw materials in storage — shrank 3.6% from a year ago by our math and stayed flat with December's $85.6 million. Accounts receivable — bills owed by clinics and distributors — rose 9.1% from a year ago against 33.9% revenue growth, helping cash flow turn positive. 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): 𝟑𝟎.𝟒 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇒ stable The average share count rose 2.7% from a year ago and 1.0% from the second quarter's 30.1 million shares. Employees exercised stock options that brought in $17.5 million of cash during the first nine months of 2026, with $0.6 million of that arriving in the third quarter. The medical technology group does not buy back shares. — • — • — 🔮 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: >$𝟐𝟕𝟒 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating 🠅 raised from $269–271 million Raised. The breast implant maker lifted its full-year floor by $4 million above the middle of its prior range, pointing to at least 29.8% annual growth. It is the third raise this year: +$2.5M, +$2.5M, +$4.0M. By our math, the >$274 million floor leaves at least $74.6 million for the fourth quarter, or 15.4% growth against last year's US launch quarter. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧, 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧𝐞-𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐬: ~𝟕𝟎.𝟕% ⇒ stable 🠇 cut from 71.2–72.2% (at Q1) Cut. After skipping a gross margin target in the second quarter, the US-listed group lowered its full-year view by 1.0 percentage point from the middle of its first-quarter range. Management blamed a "higher-than-anticipated mix of OUS distributor sales". By our math, the 70.7% annual target matches the 70.7% rate recorded over the first nine months and implies 70.7% in the fourth quarter. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐬, 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧𝐞-𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐬: $𝟏𝟗𝟓–𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating 🠆 unchanged from $195–200 million (at Q1) Unchanged. The device maker restated the annual spending range it set in the first quarter. Having spent $145.3 million excluding one-offs over the first nine months, the middle of the plan leaves $52.2 million for the fourth quarter by our math, up from $49.6 million in the third quarter. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 ⇗ accelerating 🠆 unchanged from Positive every quarter Unchanged. Establishment Labs kept its pledge to stay profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis for the full year. With $12.8 million generated across the first three quarters — rising from $1.2 million in the first quarter to $6.4 million in the third — the annual goal is already secured barring a fourth-quarter collapse. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰: 𝟐𝟓% 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰 ⇘ decelerating 🠆 unchanged from ~25% growth and FCF positive Unchanged. "We expect fiscal 2027 to deliver growth of 25% and positive cash flow, setting the stage for many years to come," Caldini said. That keeps the 25% target management outlined in prior quarters and implies at least $342.5 million of revenue in 2027 by our math, down from roughly 30% growth in 2026. — • — • — ❓ 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝟐𝟔% 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐐𝟐? Minimally invasive revenue fell to about $9 million from $12.1 million in the second quarter even as trained US Preservé surgeons rose from 300 to over 400. How much of the drop came from international Mia markets versus US Preservé ordering? 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 $𝟔.𝟖𝐌 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥? Third-quarter free cash flow of $5.1 million benefited from adding about $6.3 million of non-cash interest and debt fees to the loan balance. When does management expect operating cash flow to exceed total interest expense before the payment-in-kind option expires in 2028? 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤? Caldini reiterated the 25% revenue growth plan for 2027 and noted that FDA review for Motiva breast reconstruction is progressing. What approval date and dollar contribution from reconstruction does that 25% growth target require? 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐮𝐒𝐢𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥? The new supply agreement with single-source silicone supplier NuSil removes a key production risk. How many years does the contract run, and does it change unit manufacturing costs for the Costa Rica plants?

great environment to sell calls against/short 2x inverse ETFs imo $AXTQ $CBRZ $ASTN etc

A lot of ink has been spilled on GPU financing lately. I spent over a decade trading ABS on Wall St, and structured over $2B+ of debt financings as an operator (including at @tryramp). Figured I'd try to make sense of this market, so I went back to a framework I knew well: aircraft ABS and aircraft engine ABS. My take: a GPU neocloud runs on airline economics, and the debt behind it looks a lot like aircraft engine ABS. The parallels: • Perishable inventory. An empty seat after the door closes is gone forever. So is an idle hour on an energized H100 rack. • 85%+ of cost is fixed (servers, 10-year rack leases, 10-14% debt service). One more hour of compute costs pennies of power. • Utilization is everything. Airlines break even around 80% load factor, a levered GPU cluster around 65-75%. The returns live in those last 25 percentage points. • NVIDIA is Boeing and Airbus rolled into one. Powered shells and grid interconnects are the new airport slots. • Wall St copied the aircraft financing playbook: take-or-pay contract plus servers in a bankruptcy-remote SPV, 70-80% LTV. Part 1 of my blog post goes into a lot more detail: alexyangsong.com/blog/alumin…

PUTIN: WE NEED TO CONSIDER BRINGING AN END TO ONGOING CONFLICTS AND LIFTING SANCTIONS

Reading financial statements is useless if you don't understand the decisions behind the numbers. Understanding them is what helps you predict what comes next. Comparing $OGI and Auxly ($CBWTF) on current numbers alone misses it. Ask why management does what it does. A buyback isn't a growth signal. It can mean management sees nowhere better to invest, or it's propping up the price ahead of the next share offering. Auxly has diluted about 22 times since 2017. Think like a CEO and stay unemotional.