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FINAL 2025 FULL-YEAR PERFORMANCE
+505.20% vs. +17.25% for S&P-500
Truly life-changing year for me. Full portfolio transparency the entire way shared with thousands of members.
No meme stocks and no 0DTE options. Just deep-research on themes & industries.
Proud & humbled.
Midterms are in 2 weeks on November 3rd. *If* this market still has legs to recover, we should find out pretty soon thereafter. No need to have your leash tugged back & forth by the price action until then. Plenty of cash to attack new opportunities when they present themselves.
$SMH the magic lines are meaningful. First 21-week EMA forfeit all year last Friday, leading straight into today’s bloodbath.
Barring a major recovery tomorrow, $SMH Semiconductor ETF is at risk of posting a weekly close below the 21-week EMA for the first time this year, as you can see in the chart below.
TESLA $TSLA EARNINGS
REVENUE: $28.05B vs. $27.88B est.
EPS: $0.48 vs. $0.43 est.
FCF: +$1.53B vs. -$4.92B est.
This stock that I shared with our community on Sept. 22 was Riskified $RSKD
The stock was $6.42 then.
Today, it is trading $9+ for a +40% gain in less than a month.
Muse has revealed that consumers are more than willing to allow AI agents to access their bank accounts & conduct transactions on their behalf. This opens a new category of "agentic commerce" risk.
We opened a new position today to address this risk at whop.com/stocktalk
*PRESIDENT TRUMP SUGGESTS DATA CENTERS SHOULD PAY DIVIDENDS TO LOCAL COMMUNITIES:
"As the President of the United States, I have been watching Data Centers very closely, and have come to a very strong conclusion. New and large, in some cases gigantic, Data Centers are mandated by me to make their own electricity, and give or sell any excess back to the local community, or grid, and therefore there is electric price increase. In fact, there could be a substantial decrease. Other elements likewise! If companies want to make their Data Centers popular, pay the community, and/or individuals within the community, a “dividend.” I have watched the process closely, and Data Centers that were highly unpopular in a certain area, have become extremely popular when a financial deal is struck. MAKE DEALS, and get them built!!! GREAT FOR THE U.S.A. President DJT"
*SOME INVESTORS WEIGHING ADJUSTMENT OF ANTHROPIC IPO VALUATION LOWER TO $1.5 TRILLION VS. $2 TRILLION PRIOR
After peaking above 5.3% on yesterday morning's CPI print, the 10-year yield has fallen materially, now back under 5.1%.
Follow-through in bonds next week could push this back under 5%, which would likely be a tailwind for rate-sensitive stocks and market breadth.
Barring a major recovery tomorrow, $SMH Semiconductor ETF is at risk of posting a weekly close below the 21-week EMA for the first time this year, as you can see in the chart below.
*NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG: WE DON'T NEED TO BACKSTOP COREWEAVE, BECAUSE THEIR COST OF CAPITAL IS DECREASING AND STRENGTH IS INCREASING EVERY DAY $CRWV
*TAIWAN SEMI CEO SAYS COMPANY LOOKING TO EXPAND U.S. CAPACITY BEYOND ARIZONA INTO TEXAS, IN DISCUSSIONS WITH ELON MUSK TO COLLABORATE ON ‘TERAFAB’
The reason the market doesn't like the Anthropic numbers is because A) they likely miss the $100B projected ARR and B) quarter-over-quarter growth is markedly decelerating.
Q1: $4.7B
Q2: $11.6B (+146%)
Q3: $16.8B (+45%)
A $2 trillion valuation demands neck-breaking growth.
Anthropic's disclosed Q3 revenue of $16.8B (nearly +50% Q/Q from $11.5B in Q2) is a nice number in a vacuum, but it's just plainly insufficient to justify a $2 trillion+ valuation, especially in light of the $500 billion Anthropic said it intends to spend over the next decade.
President Trump had it all back in February.
The 10-Year yield was under 4%, 30-Year mortgages were under 6%, oil was under $70/barrel, and AI investment was booming, with minimal credit risk. Now, that has all reversed.
The Iran War was an unforced fumble of epic proportions.







