7 roadmap eras. Here's the rest of the iceberg: Nillion Dusk, now. Sealed orders on Ethereum that fire on price or time. No bots to run, no one to trust. An SDK built for agents, apps in a few lines of TypeScript, and anyone can run a node by staking NIL. Mainnet early Oct Darkfall, Nov to Feb. One network across Hyperliquid, Base, Robinhood and the rest of EVM, native on each. Stake NIL once on Ethereum, earn fees from every chain you serve. Misbehaving nodes get jailed and slashed Skyglow, Feb to May. Watch a condition on one chain, settle on another. Nothing bridged, nothing wrapped, no value locked. Goes past EVM too, Solana and Move chains Nightside (my fav), May to Aug. Custom conditions of any complexity, resolved by any feed the nodes can verify, checked at high frequency. A wallet moving, a court ruling, a CPI print, a shipment. Nodes specialise in feeds and get paid for the facts they confirm Neon, Aug to Oct. Covenants get their own language and VM, so conditions become programmable. Nest them, do maths on them, loop them. The design space blows wide open Aurora, Oct to Jan. Long-dated covenants get a second, quantum resistant seal on top of the first. FHE coprocessors compute on conditions without ever decrypting them Moonshine, Dec to Feb. Ciphertext moves to blobs at about a tenth of the cost, reveals get verified with a single ZK proof, cent-priced covenants, and you can stake NIL for capacity instead of paying per covenant. As volume grows the network starts paying for itself, so it can print less new NIL

This is what happens when you trade in public You become liquidity for the silent killers Be smarter There is another way

All five of these sit in front of existing venues like Polymarket and Kalshi. There’s another category where a venue builds Covenants into how its own markets resolve. Gonna post about that one later this week

Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets: (1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events (2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi (3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes (4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way (5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it

Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh

Spent the weekend deep diving into the stuff Covenants can do in prediction markets and it’s super exciting Will be sharing some of that this week. Stay tuned 👀

This is wild. It fired! 19:56 UTC, minutes after I posted. All 250 ZEC sold at $1,049, 53k loss locked in. ZEC printed $1,048.40 for one minute and two hours later it’s $1,100 Brutal. This guy did the responsible thing, set a stop to protect himself, and the venue put it on display for anyone to aim at. 53k gone, and ZEC ripped straight back up without those 250 coins This needs fixing. With Covenants nobody knows where your line is