Mark Mac retweeted
John from @nillion on how privacy got him into crypto, and the bigger idea they’re building on top of it: Encrypted Markets.
Yep, and the lemons are making it nice and easy for the platforms to squeeze them by leaving all their trading alpha and plans out in the clear
Mark Mac retweeted
I'll join the group therapy session
Hi, my name is Miguel, and I'm bullish on Encrypted Markets
I just can't help it
Mark Mac retweeted
Still holding NIL or ETH on Nillion L2?
With Nillion building on Ethereum L1, now’s the time to bridge your funds over.
The process takes around nine days, so start bridging today 👇
🔗 bridge.nillion.network/
Mark Mac retweeted
Blacklight node operators, a reminder to complete your migration to Ethereum L1.
Claim your L2 rewards, unstake and bridge your NIL to Ethereum, where node operators are already earning rewards.
Mark Mac retweeted
Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets:
(1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events
(2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi
(3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes
(4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way
(5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire
Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
Private transactions ≠ private trading strategies.
Onchain markets have 3 layers: transaction, execution and intelligence.
Even if a transaction is private, your stop losses and limit orders can still reveal your next move.
Nillion's Covenants keep them encrypted.
All five of these sit in front of existing venues like Polymarket and Kalshi. There’s another category where a venue builds Covenants into how its own markets resolve. Gonna post about that one later this week
Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets:
(1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events
(2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi
(3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes
(4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way
(5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire
Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh