OddChain's your leading source for prediction market news, analysis and insights | Have you subscribed? (Disclaimer on our website.)
Earth
Joined October 2025
- Tweets954
- Following410
- Followers243
- Likes624
you can learn from the winners, but you can also learn from the losers
oddchain.com/p/who-came-out-…
did a quick write up on an interesting paper
oddchain.com/p/three-forecas…
$2.5 million traded on Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?” market.
It resolved No. The wallets that made money gained just $24,864 combined.
We traced the transactions to see who came out ahead & who lost:
oddchain.com/p/who-came-out-…
All ten of the largest winners bought No at an average price of at least 85¢. Six paid 97¢ or more.
The highest percentage return among those ten came from a first-day buyer: 6,300 No shares at 85¢, for a $907 gain.
1
29
Boots on the ground often pay off:
"But election sharps like Campbell and Bensoussan offer a window into how some solo traders have embraced the opportunity to sort through the dizzying array of information and disinformation floating around elections."
A good read.
We were profiled in @Bloomberg over the weekend along with some friends re. midterm prediction research. Thanks to @bdanweiss who wrote a great article! bloomberg.com/news/articles/… ... research but also beautiful Autumn colors in Maine and a dynamic NYC made for a fun time!
3
106
Some interesting positions from the top accounts on this market. But just because they did okay on this market, doesn't, mean they're necessarily doing good overall.
Check out some below or the full list in the article:
we put together the top wins and losses for the market, see what people are doing (more like this come)
oddchain.com/p/who-came-out-…
1
32
we put together an overview of the top wins and losses in this market so you can discover some traders to watch and some to avoid
oddchain.com/p/who-came-out-…
1
61
we put together the top wins and losses for the market, see what people are doing (more like this come)
oddchain.com/p/who-came-out-…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
.@CFTC Staff Releases Updates to FAQs Concerning Registrants and Registered Entity Activities Relating to Crypto Assets and Blockchain Technologies: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
This Polymarket trader wagered over $200k that Jesus will not return before 2027.
With this level of conviction, might they be an insider?
But perhaps the better question is: why does Wise-Mecca over here have 563,549 shares of Yes as their only position?!
What do they know?!
49
