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Joined October 2025
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OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
.@CFTC Staff Releases Updates to FAQs Concerning Registrants and Registered Entity Activities Relating to Crypto Assets and Blockchain Technologies: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Here’s a gift link to today’s Wall Street Journal article on the possible wash trading on Kalshi. The WSJ team is killing it lately. wsj.com/finance/currencies/5…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
NEW w/ @ceostroff @byneilmehta: The CFTC is examining unusual Kalshi trades first surfaced here by @beniduboss. Since August, almost one million trades were made in a single market in nearly identical amounts.
wsj.com/finance/currencies/5…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts.
i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal.
this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here: news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
BREAKING NEWS: Utah GOP Sen. JOHN CURTIS is asking the Senate Judiciary to investigate Donald Trump Jr over a report that a Russian oligarch close to Putin paid for his wedding celebration.
punchbowl.news/09-21-2026-cu…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Another very good forecast update for Democrats today. Now up 7.8 on the generic ballot or 8.6 on the likely-voter version. That is deeply into wave territory.
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
While technically true, this is based on a buy of fewer than 60 shares in a very illiquid market with an 18 cent bid ask spread.
MILEY’s odds of performing at the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show have reached an all-time high, currently at 71% per @Kalshi markets.
Highest odds of any artist.
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Prediction markets have reached the Supreme Court!! NJ asked SCOTUS to take up its appeal of the Third Circuit ruling that said states can’t regulate prediction markets. Comes days after Ninth Circuit ruled in favor of states, creating a split. cnn.com/2026/09/02/politics/…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
JUST IN: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says interest rate hikes are in play if inflation doesn't fall axios.com/2026/08/28/kevin-w…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
JUST IN: Connecticut sued Kalshi, calling its sports contracts illegal, unlicensed betting.
This is another direct test of the industry's core legal claim: federally regulated derivatives—or sports betting under a new label?
publicnow.com/view/38FC929CC…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Maritime traffic rises despite risk
Vessel movements increased across Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 11 August, but the underlying risk picture remains elevated. Hormuz recorded 14 crossings, up 16.7% day on day, including 12 vessels entering the Middle East Gulf. Eleven of the 14 used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with no TSS crossings recorded. Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose 14.3% to 40 crossings, including 23 Red Sea entries. The dataset also recorded four dark transits, four sanctioned crossings and seven shadow fleet crossings, highlighting the value of continued #MarineTraffic visibility as vessel behaviour evolves.
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
IRAN SAYS HORMUZ STAYS CLOSED UNTIL CONDITIONS MET
An Iranian official warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Iran’s conditions are met.
The official said any renewed attacks or breaches of commitments would face a stronger response and greater resistance from Iran.
The official added that the “punishment of the aggressor” would continue, warning adversaries against repeating past actions.
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
S&P 500 futures are flat as traders wait for possible Strait of Hormuz deal, inflation data ahead: Live updates cnbc.com/2026/08/09/stock-ma…
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz but repeated that the US must meet other conditions, including compensation and an end to sanctions and military threats, before the strategic waterway is reopened reut.rs/4wQpnHW
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
Amplifi did $65K in volume in its first 7 days.
This puts Amplifi among top 65 Polymarket builders, in week 1.
There were 1831 loans, accounting for $85K of loan origination.
We are bullish and adding new markets for week 2:
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31?
- NBA and UCL Finals
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
- 15 minute BTC markets
amplifi.finance/?u=a5
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
ARK is excited to participate in @Kalshi's latest funding round. We believe prediction markets are emerging as a powerful new layer of financial infrastructure, enabling real-time price discovery around events, probabilities, and the evolving state of the world. Kalshi is at the forefront of this innovation, and we’re thrilled to support a team pushing the boundaries of how information is aggregated and expressed through markets. Congratulations to the entire team on this important milestone!
The ARK Venture Fund is happy to announce that it increased its investment in Kalshi in their Series F round.
To learn more about Kalshi, please read our recently published Investment Thesis: ark-funds.com/articles/ventu…
Holdings, subject to change: ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
The viral, much-anticipated @Polymarket “Situation Room” is not going as planned.
Due to a power issue, most of the TVs aren’t working.
This globe is, though.
Doors open to public at 8p
OddChain | Indep. research on prediction markets retweeted
8p update:
I’ve chatted with a dozen people. Almost all of them, here at the Polymarket event, find the company’s lack of regulation + potential for insider trading concerning
Polymarket’s Chief Legal Officer spoke to reporters earlier and told us they follow all applicable laws
