Co-CIO @ Not FA
Joined December 2015
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it's finally time for Chovy win this title
TOP 2 MOST DOMINANT WORLDS RUNS OF ALL TIME:
What is @GenG's score going to be after the #Worlds2026 Final?
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crypto back to 'if stocks can pump 16% in a day, why bother longing any crypto' narrative
zcash:native below $1k , bitcoin:native below $75k
crypto cooked until ai is cooked but then the market is cooked so crypto is cooked again
BREAKING: CoreWeave stock, $CRWV, surges over +16% after posting stronger than expected earnings due to AI.
Nasdaq 100 futures extend gains to +1.5% on the day.
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neoclouds are holding up despite 10yr back up at 5%, so that's a good sign for the ai complex. if you recall, we are in this leg down all because of 'neocloud scare'
but crypto is challenged now because
- rates are high so 'risk off'
- neoclouds are up -> sucking up risk capital liquidity
so there you go, not much reason to buy for now
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$CHTR's $1.5 bn cash tender can result in $1.1 bn value creation (5% of equity) for shareholders. With stock up 10% yesterday, the market reacted well to this efficient debt reduction
Now with decreasing capex in 2027/ 28, base case FCF after debt repayment to reach 3.5x by 2029 is ~$3.3 bn/ $4.6 bn. Doing that paydown through cash tenders at ~Β’65β70 retires ~$1.4β1.5 of debt per $1 spent, which leaves ~$3 bn per year for buybacks in 2027/ 28 (~14% of current market cap a year). If the $2 bn savings plan lands, that rises to ~$4β5bn
No one knows what's the right terminal value of Charter, but at current price, there are few ways to win:
- any sign of slower EBITDA decline
- attractive cash tender for debt reduction
- capex reduction kicking in from 2027
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sounds like a great deal? so itβs like they get to pay down the debt at 2x the pace
kind of funny how couple months ago $CHTR was selling off with raising rates but now itβs up 10% as people realize that they can cash tender their long dated debt at discount from issuance?
$CHTR launched a $1.5B cash tender for 8 long-dated bonds (2041β2062, 3.5β4.8% coupons).
At ~7.2% tender yields they price ~58Β’ on the dollar β est. ~$2.6B of debt retired for $1.5B, ~$100M/yr interest saved.
Rising yields = cheaper buyback. Deleveraging, accelerated.
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Tom π retweeted
Maybe $CHTRβs $100B of debt is only $57B
They bought back stock way too high but they also sold debt too high.
Their debt buybacks are chipping away at terrible stock buybacks.
$CHTR launched a $1.5B cash tender for 8 long-dated bonds (2041β2062, 3.5β4.8% coupons).
At ~7.2% tender yields they price ~58Β’ on the dollar β est. ~$2.6B of debt retired for $1.5B, ~$100M/yr interest saved.
Rising yields = cheaper buyback. Deleveraging, accelerated.
you prob see this and think why not just do nothing and hold $SPY or $QQQ
unsurprisingly, you end up doing better than most while have time to do other things ha
Hedge fund net returns, 2026 YTD through October 31. Source: Bloomberg
π© If you are aiming for the buy-side, I shared everything I know in my free 160-page buy-side career guide: newsletter.richardtoad.com/
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Tom π retweeted
Hedge fund net returns, 2026 YTD through October 31. Source: Bloomberg
π© If you are aiming for the buy-side, I shared everything I know in my free 160-page buy-side career guide: newsletter.richardtoad.com/
kind of wild stats , no wonder dems swept last week
56% OF AMERICANS WOULD SKIP HOLIDAY GATHERINGS DUE TO COSTS
A new Barclays survey reveals growing financial pressure on US consumers heading into the holiday season.
56% have skipped or would skip holiday gatherings because they cannot afford them, while 57% cite travel and gift expenses as major stressors.
79% would host at home to save money, and 78% would cut everyday spending.
Meanwhile, 37% of Gen Z and Millennials say their parents are helping cover holiday expenses.
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Tom π retweeted
Tokyo Jazz Club π
That's a wrap!
Thank you to everyone who came, to Tomo Kihara @tomokihara, Ryota Kuwakubo and EXCALIBUR @ENN, and to our friends across the building, artists and galleries alikeπ€
tokyojazzclub.jp
Tom π retweeted
Is your 9 to 5 riskier than starting a business?
@MohnishPabrai
10YR is the summation of everything : reduced capex for data centers, less borrowing from neoclouds, yet higher energy prices due to ongoing war and likely increasing govt spending with dems sweep
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