Melo ⭒ retweeted
Trump talking about Cuba next while Kalshi is giving Republicans just a 9% chance of sweeping Congress in the midterms 😭
Kalshi’s odds are telling a very different story than Trump’s rally speeches 💀
Melo ⭒ retweeted
the fact that most of Kalshi's top traders are self taught is pretty insane
🤝 Paid partnership
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
Melo ⭒ retweeted
Feels like we’re watching an entirely new market get built in real time
🤝 Paid partnership
Is it time to call it the Silicon Spread yet?
Kalshi intends to launch additional compute and power markets so people can trade the physical infrastructure behind AI. From a market perspective, compute and power are the two most important inputs to the AI revolution happening in the marketplace.
In other commodity markets we have already seen similar relationships exist: Gas & power trade through the spark spread, for instance. We are already witnessing AI infrastructure develop a similar relationship: power in, compute out, aka the Silicon Spread.
Kalshi is taking a methodical and comprehensive approach to building out the markets for compute and power:
(1) Price Discovery & hedging through Prediction Markets
(2) Continuous exposure management through Perpetual Futures
(3) Long Dated Exposure hedging through Dated Futures
AI infrastructure runs around the clock, and the risks don’t pause either. Weather, outages and grid constraints can move power markets significantly over a weekend. Kalshi, with our ability to both trade and clear 24/7 will provide the marketplace for round-the-clock trading and risl management of power and contract markets.
For more details, please read out insights in this research paper. kalshi.com/research/kalshi-r…
