TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
2007A 36-year-old Elon Musk sits down for a quiet PBS interview and says, almost casually:
“The most important thing we can do for the future of consciousness is to become a multi-planetary species… Everything else pales in comparison.”
He then predicts, with zero hype:
•Fully reusable rockets that land like airplanes
•Electric cars that outperform gasoline in every way and go mass-market
•Solar + batteries becoming the cheapest energy on Earth
•Humans on Mars and a self-sustaining city there
Jeff Bezos was already the richest man on Earth in 2007.
He started Blue Origin in 2000 with the exact same “multi-planetary” dream.
18+ years later:
Blue Origin has flown exactly zero orbital missions. New Glenn still hasn’t launched. No reusable booster has ever landed. No Mars plan with dates.
Elon?
•Falcon 9 boosters have landed 400+ times
•Starship (bigger than anything ever built) is flying
•Tesla sells 2 million cars a year and is worth more than the rest of the car industry combined
•Solar + batteries are now the cheapest electricity source in history
•First uncrewed Starships to Mars: 2026–2028. Crewed: late 2020s/early 2030s — exactly the timeline he gave in 2007
The vision never wavered. Not once.
The enthusiasm is the same calm, burning conviction you hear in that 2007 clip today.
The determination? He went personally bankrupt in 2008 keeping SpaceX and Tesla alive with his last dollars.
Almost 20 years later, every single “crazy” prediction from that interview is either already reality or on schedule.
This is what relentless execution looks like.
Watch the 2007 interview (25 minutes that aged like fine wine):
He didn’t just dream about the future.
He scheduled it. And showed up.
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
I'll post my new TSLA price target if this post gets 200 reposts & likes or if this account of mine reaches 2000 followers. Let's goooooo! How's everyone feeling? I've missed you all!
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
The Process of Training FSD to Surpass Human Drivers
- Basic Structure:
FSD is a neural network (AI) that takes sensor data, like camera inputs, and outputs acceleration, braking, and steering. Initial training relies on imitation learning, where it mimics examples of good human driving.
- Overcoming Limitations:
Human data alone isn’t perfect, so reinforcement learning is added. In simulations, FSD is tested across various scenarios (e.g., a pedestrian stepping out). Safe actions earn reward points, while unsafe ones receive penalties, fine-tuning the model.
- Training Scale:
Tesla’s Cortex supercomputer (with over 100,000 GPUs) trains FSD on massive datasets. Imitation learning is followed by reinforcement learning, which consumes more computing power.
- v14 Innovations:
v14 uses a model 10x larger than v13 and employs a Mixture of Experts (MoE) structure for efficient operation on vehicle hardware. It operates in a fully unsupervised mode, preparing for robotaxis (driverless taxis). It drives smoothly like a human but is safer and more consistent.
- Future:
v14 marks the start of surpassing human driving, with v15, v16, and beyond expected to advance further.
The focus is on FSD’s evolution from imitating humans to transcending them, highlighting v14’s appeal, which Elon Musk describes as feeling “almost conscious.”
Simple Explanation
FSD is like a “smart robot driver.” It starts by watching videos of human driving to learn the basics (imitation learning: “Oh, that’s how it’s done!”). But this isn’t enough—humans make mistakes, and they don’t encounter every situation (like someone suddenly crossing the road).
That’s where reinforcement learning comes in. FSD is tested millions of times in a virtual “driving game” simulation.
For example:
A pedestrian pops out from behind a car?
*Hitting them? -50 points (disaster!).
*Slamming brakes too hard, causing a rear-end collision? -25 points.
*Swerving dangerously? -5 points.
*Braking + smooth steering to avoid? +Points!
These scores teach FSD to make “good choices” more often. The result? It drives naturally like a human but is safer and more consistent. v14 is a massive upgrade (10x bigger model) with an efficient MoE structure (using only what’s needed to save energy). It’s now smart enough for driverless taxis, almost “thinking” on its own!
In short, FSD v14 is a super AI driver built with a “human driving coach + virtual practice ground.” It’s not perfect yet, but it shows the future of self-driving.
#FSD #SelfDriving
FSD가 인간 운전자를 능가하는 수준으로 훈련되는 과정
- 기본 구조:
FSD는 카메라 같은 센서 데이터를 입력받아 가속, 브레이크, 조향을 출력하는 신경망(인공지능)입니다. 초기 훈련은 '모방 학습(imitating human driving data)'으로 인간의 좋은 운전 예시를 따라 합니다.
- 한계 극복:
인간 데이터만으로는 완벽하지 않기 때문에 '강화 학습(reinforcement learning)'을 추가합니다. 시뮬레이션에서 다양한 시나리오(예: 보행자 등장)를 반복 테스트하며, 안전한 행동에 보상 점수를 주고 나쁜 행동에 페널티를 주어 모델을 세밀하게 다듬습니다.
- 훈련 규모: Tesla의 'Cortex' 슈퍼컴퓨터(10만 개 이상 GPU)에서 대규모 데이터로 훈련. 모방 학습 후 강화 학습이 더 많은 컴퓨팅을 소모합니다.
- v14의 혁신: v13보다 10배 큰 모델로, 'Mixture of Experts(MoE)' 구조를 써서 차량 하드웨어에서 효율적으로 동작. 완전 무감독(unsupervised) 모드로 로보택시(무인 택시) 준비. 인간처럼 부드럽고, 더 안전·일관된 주행을 합니다.
- 미래: v14는 인간을 넘어선 자율주행의 시작으로, 앞으로 v15·v16 등이 더 발전할 겁니다.
전체적으로 FSD가 '인간 모방'에서 '인간 초월'로 진화하는 과정을 강조하며, Elon Musk가 "의식 있는 듯하다"고 표현한 v14의 매력을 강조합니다.
쉬운 해설
FSD는 마치 "스마트한 로봇 운전자"예요. 인간이 운전하는 걸 영상으로 찍어 배우는 건 기본(모방 학습: "아, 이렇게 하면 돼!")인데, 이게 완벽하지 않아요. 왜냐? 인간도 실수하고, 모든 상황(예: 갑자기 튀어나오는 사람)을 다 겪지 못하니까요.
그래서 강화 학습이 등장해요. 상상 속 시뮬레이션(가상 드라이빙 게임)에서 FSD를 수백만 번 테스트합니다. 예를 들어:
보행자가 차 뒤에서 튀어나오면?
-사람 치면 -50점 (최악!).
-너무 세게 브레이크 밟아 뒤차 충돌? -25점.
-위험하게 방향 틀기? -5점.
-브레이크 + 부드러운 조향으로 피하기? +점수!
이 점수로 FSD가 "좋은 선택"을 더 자주 하도록 학습해요. 결과? 인간처럼 자연스럽게, 하지만 더 안전하고 일관되게 운전합니다. v14는 이걸 대형 모델(10배 커짐) + 효율 구조(MoE: 필요한 부분만 써서 에너지 절약)로 업그레이드한 버전이에요. 이제 무인 택시도 가능할 만큼 "스스로 생각"하는 수준!
짧게 말해, FSD v14는 "인간 운전 코치 + 가상 연습장"으로 만든 슈퍼 AI 운전자예요. 아직 완벽은 아니지만, 자율주행의 미래를 보여줍니다. #FSD #자율주행
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
Replying to @elonmusk
Everyone, read this if you want to understand the dire debt situation. This is BEFORE more debt from the BBB obviously.
teapawt.net/alojoh/status/19330439…
This thread is a deep dive into the government's fiscal situation based on latest data for May published yesterday.
The month of May marks month 8 of the current fiscal year. The government spent in the current fiscal year $4,846 billion.
The deficit after 8 months amounts to almost $1.4 trillion: $1,365 billion.
You can see in the chart how net interest expense ranks #3 largest spending category at $665 billion (for 8 months). Spending is only higher for social security ($1,040 billion) and Medicare ($700 billion).
The deficit is 39% of total receipts! (1,365/3,482)
In other words: the government spent 39% more than it took in.
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
Replying to @DataRepublican
Before even getting to timed scripts, the number of government jobs that could be replaced simply with a mouse macro is astounding!
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
This 👇
Psyched to share something @stripe, @ScaleMicrogrids, and @paces_ai have been cooking for the past few months.
A massive wave of new energy demand has been unleashed by AI.
How will we power it?
We think gigantic off-grid solar microgrids offer a very compelling solution.
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
STUDY: SUICIDAL EMPATHY – BALANCE MUST BE RESTORED
Uncontrolled empathy can cloud judgment and enable harmful ideologies.
Gad Saad warns that “suicidal empathy,” or prioritizing emotions over facts, undermines rational decision-making.
Examples of suicidal empathy affecting society:
- Defending destructive behaviors in the name of compassion.
- Supporting policies without considering their long-term impact.
- Ignoring facts to avoid offending others.
A balance between empathy and rational thinking must be restored to foil the parasitic mind.
Source: The Parasitic Mind, @GadSaad
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
Here is another false narrative I see popping up everywhere about Tesla's 2Q: "margins decreased". This is NOT true. ALL top level margins INCREASED. This is what matters at the end of the day. Auto margins are not driving EPS!
TSLAQ is cherry-picking by focusing on low level margins (like automotive excluding credits etc) but ignore the top level margin improvments.
This is like looking at Nvidia's gaming graphics card margins and ignoring Nvidia's overall gross margin or operating margin.
Here are the facts:
1. Total gross margin improved +0.6%pts to 18.0%.
2. Operating margin improved +0.8%pts to 6.3%.
3. Opertaing margin excluding exceptionally high one-time restructuring charges improved by a shocking +3.2%pts to 8.7%(!).
Please like/repost for maximum reach to fight the FUD. Thanks.
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
The current scenario I’m seeing with the Elon 2018 comp revote is unnerving to watch as a person who appreciates what capitalism has given humanity.
Increasingly, I’ve been seeing not honoring contracts as some kind of virtuous rebel move, In my personal life and otherwise, and enforcing contracts being seen from this oppressor/oppressed mindset is just disturbing.
The erosion of justice system, legal system which I have deep respect for here in America due to which the country is where it is, is deeply disturbing and outright scary.
This vote is not about Elon, not about even Tesla honestly. It is about future of American capitalism and exceptionalism. It is about everyday man taking risks, it is about normal people like myself - a retail shareholder can bet on crazy futuristic tech where the founder puts everything at stake and aligns himself/herself with people like me, a nobody and respects me, a nobody for some seriously long term optionality of wealth creation with really low probability , is even possible.
What this vote is not?
1. Not a vote of confidence- this is not that, and being treated as one.
2. Not vote on governance - if this is one’s problem - selling one’s stock and voting on BoD terms or voting out BoD people is the most appropriate avenues for it. Not this. Litmus test: how many CEOs would jump on this opportunity to take this comp right now for any of their companies? I would say almost 0. Wouldn’t this mean this was not an “Elon friendly” comp negotiated by the board? One can’t have it both ways, if one says governance issues, I would like to see more comps like this being offered and accepted by other CEOs - because it creates serious shareholder wealth. If not, this was not “CEO friendly” in anyway.
3. Not a vote on if you “like and agree” with the CEO, it’s not.
I would go one step further and say, the only people who should be even allowed to vote on this should be people who are holding shares now *and* were holding shares back in 2018/19 when all this played out, but sadly there’s no mechanism for that.
This decision by the judge in the state of DE, could set American capitalism back by a lot by setting dangerous precedent. No CEO would be willing to take a performance based compensation and align themselves to the shareholders - this will already be the case unless the decision by the judge is appealed. Anybody would be able sue any company for past pay. Would incentivize companies to stay private for much longer (which is already the case but will be more so if this is a precedent).
The reason America is where it is, is due to capitalism, and incentives for long term value creation. Sadly this is slowly being eroded , this
decision is one more step towards that and that is not good for the world. We shareholders can change this by setting up the incentives right by leaving the state of DE and shareholders voting to honor the past agreed upon Elon’s contract.
Rant over!
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
How Much Impact Have Elon Musk's Tweets Had on Tesla Sales?
Now that we have a full year of sales data since Musk took over Twitter in October 2022, we can start to quantify the impact to sales.
First, we can see that Tesla's sales continue to grow each year. Some of the discussions online almost make it sound like sales are falling because of Musk, but of course sales are actually growing every year at a staggering rate. Critics of Musk will say "of course sales are growing, but they would have grown much faster if Musk had shut his mouth". So let's examine the impact to growth.
In 2022 Tesla sales grew 40% over 2021 levels, and in 2023 they grew 38% over 2022 levels. We can therefore quantify the impact to sales growth from all factors at less than 2%.
Of course, during 2023 we saw much higher interest rates, lower credit availability, tighter consumer budgets, lower consumer sentiment etc in the US. In China we saw the continued ramifications of the property bubble bursting, low consumer sentiment and a highly competitive market as scores of Chinese EV makers struggle. I estimate the impact to growth from these factors to be a greater than 1% headwind.
Given those assumptions, we can thus conclude that Musk's tweets impacted Tesla's sales growth less than 1%. In absolute terms, Tesla saw delivery growth of 494,730 units compared to 377,679 additional units added in 2022. In absolute terms, the number of new delivery units added was greater than any year in Tesla's history — it was 38% instead of 40% because we are comparing to a larger base.
Tesla says that of those 1.8 million buyers, 1.62 million were new to the brand. Contrary to the narrative that Tesla is losing millions of sales, the data actually shows that millions of new customers joined the brand for the first time since Musk's Twitter takeover.
Critics of Musk will say "Sure, over a million new customers joined the brand. But they had to cut the price, and that is because so many people were offended!". Auto market data does not support this hypothesis. We are emerging from a shortage of cars during the pandemic to a more normal auto market. We have seen less dealer markups and more incentives. We have seen auto inventories rise to multi-year highs. This is a market phenomenon, not a Tesla specific phenomenon.
If it were true that people were refusing to buy a Tesla because they hate Musk, they would not buy even at a lower price. Meanwhile other EV peers like Rivian and Lucid have also lowered prices despite their CEOs not tweeting up a storm or buying any social networks. Clearly there is some negative impact, but macroeconomic factors seem to be playing a much more powerful role than political factors.
I can only conclude that the impact to Tesla sales from Musk's tweets is negligible to possibly even positive. Another year of data will give us more clarity on what the impact has been.
I think that when people say "Elon you have to shut up, you are tanking sales" what they really mean is "you have to shut up, I don't like what you're saying".
TheOtherJohnSmith (Unsupervised) retweeted
"They're made out of meat."
"Meat?"
"Meat. They're made out of meat."
"Meat?"
"There's no doubt about it. We picked several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, probed them all the way through. They're completely meat."
"That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars."
"They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."
"So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact."
"They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines."
"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."
"I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in the sector and they're made out of meat."
"Maybe they're like the Orfolei. You know, a carbon-based intelligence that goes through a meat stage."
"Nope. They're born meat and they die meat. We studied them for several of their life spans, which didn't take too long. Do you have any idea the life span of meat?"
"Spare me. Okay, maybe they're only part meat. You know, like the Weddilei. A meat head with an electron plasma brain inside."
"Nope. We thought of that, since they do have meat heads like the Weddilei. But I told you, we probed them. They're meat all the way through."
"No brain?"
"Oh, there is a brain all right. It's just that the brain is made out of meat!"
"So... what does the thinking?"
"You're not understanding, are you? The brain does the thinking. The meat."
"Thinking meat! You're asking me to believe in thinking meat!"
"Yes, thinking meat! Conscious meat! Loving meat. Dreaming meat. The meat is the whole deal! Are you getting the picture?"
"Omigod. You're serious then. They're made out of meat."
"Finally, Yes. They are indeed made out meat. And they've been trying to get in touch with us for almost a hundred of their years."
"So what does the meat have in mind."
"First it wants to talk to us. Then I imagine it wants to explore the universe, contact other sentients, swap ideas and information. The usual."
"We're supposed to talk to meat?"
"That's the idea. That's the message they're sending out by radio. 'Hello. Anyone out there? Anyone home?' That sort of thing."
"They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"
"Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."
"I thought you just told me they used radio."
"They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds. You know how when you slap or flap meat it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air through their meat."
"Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"
"Officially or unofficially?"
"Both."
"Officially, we are required to contact, welcome, and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in the quadrant, without prejudice, fear, or favor. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the records and forget the whole thing."
"I was hoping you would say that."
"It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"
"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say?" `Hello, meat. How's it going?' But will this work? How many planets are we dealing with here?"
"Just one. They can travel to other planets in special meat containers, but they can't live on them. And being meat, they only travel through C space. Which limits them to the speed of light and makes the possibility of their ever making contact pretty slim. Infinitesimal, in fact."
"So we just pretend there's no one home in the universe."
"That's it."
"Cruel. But you said it yourself, who wants to meet meat? And the ones who have been aboard our vessels, the ones you have probed? You're sure they won't remember?"
"They'll be considered crackpots if they do. We went into their heads and smoothed out their meat so that we're just a dream to them."
"A dream to meat! How strangely appropriate, that we should be meat's dream."
"And we can marked this sector unoccupied."
"Good. Agreed, officially and unofficially. Case closed. Any others? Anyone interesting on that side of the galaxy?"
"Yes, a rather shy but sweet hydrogen core cluster intelligence in a class nine star in G445 zone. Was in contact two galactic rotation ago, wants to be friendly again."
"They always come around."
"And why not? Imagine how unbearably, how unutterably cold the universe would be if one were all alone."
--
Terry Bisson, 1991


























