M. Eng. Electronic ⚡ 〰️ Financial data & analysis. Value investing. Growth? at a reasonable price 🦔 🧔🏻
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Joined February 2023
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Alex A.C. retweeted
The AI ROI debate is getting harder to dismiss.
Since late 2022, information, finance and professional/technical services produced **19.8% more real output with 1% fewer payroll jobs**.
Output per job is growing at a 5.1% annual trend, up from 2.3% before 2023. The rest of the private nonfarm economy? 1.4%.
Meanwhile, Anthropic reports over 6,000 customers spending at least $100K annually, versus over 600 a year earlier. Microsoft says automated tasks nearly doubled since July.
This is the shift we’ve been writing about: **from answers to work.** Agents doing useful work on enterprise data, inside governed workflows.
Does this prove AI caused the acceleration? No. But “where’s the ROI?” deserves a better answer than another chatbot joke.
Hard for me to look at these charts from the FT, especially the first one, and not see some evidence of “ROI on AI.”
Seems like a productivity surge post-Covid era overhiring that began to reverse before ChatGPT came out and then resumed its upward trend after ChatGPT.
Especially given the @a16z data on revenue per employee at their portfolio companies and the @EPBResearch data showing that the 3 industries that have most heavily adopted AI have gone from 2.2% productivity growth to 5% productivity growth.
And makes sense that it is showing up in the US first - America is 72% of Anthropic revenue vs. 50%ish at most application software companies.
Great stuff from @jburnmurdoch even if I disagree with his conclusion.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Visa and Mastercard see agentic commerce as a significant long-term opportunity, although current transaction volumes remain very small.
$V Visa CEO: "It's still very early. So we do have conviction that the opportunity is significant. We do have conviction that there's real incremental opportunities. But as we think about the next 4 quarters in '27, it all remains very small in the big scheme of the enormous size of our business."
$MA Mastercard CEO: "It is still early days, and the numbers are not yet significant in the grand scheme. But as the AI agentic assistants have emerged, agentic transactions are ramping up at impressive weekly growth rates. We're now seeing the early stages of consumer adoption."
Alex A.C. retweeted
Interesting visual shared by @friedberg on @theallinpod
Starting from $1 of Nvidia COGS, the money flows into $4.00 of Nvidia hardware revenue, scales to $8.6 per year in SpaceXAI compute revenue, grows to $17.8 per year for Anthropic, and ultimately unlocks $36–178 per year in value for the end customer.
$SPCX $NVDA
Alex A.C. retweeted
ALERT🚨🚨🚨: AMD's @AnushElangovan and his team have achieved up to 2x better performance per dollar than even B200 on Kimi K3 Agentic Inference! This is due to various software optimization efforts, including tuning AITER kernels and MonoKernel decode.
Along with MI355X having 2304GB of HBM per server, this allows it to avoid crossing slow 8x400Gbit/s scale-out networking between servers, which B200 needs to do due to having less than 1.5TB of HBM.
Great work to Anush, Peng Sun, Ramine, Emad, and the vLLM team for this amazing work!
Alex A.C. retweeted
Unitree shipments to increase to 30,000 units in 2027, up from 10,000-12,000 units in 2026.
Humanoids shipment volume picking up.
Alex A.C. retweeted
The implicit assumption in the question is that higher rates help fix inflation in all contexts.
In reality, certain conditions/causes for inflation are not fixed by higher rates.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Cloud growth is accelerating across Big Tech:
$AMZN CEO: "AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, accelerating for the sixth straight quarter, our fastest growth in nearly 5 years. Backlog is $578 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year and well diversified."
$MSFT CFO: "Azure revenue was ahead of expectations and increased 48%, even with the 3P capacity delays noted earlier, driven by Foundry and improved CPU monetization."
$GOOGL CFO: "Cloud revenues were up 103% to $30.7 billion, driven by strong growth in GCP, with strength in AI, including both AI infrastructure and AI solutions, and core GCP"
Alex A.C. retweeted
AMD's fungible chiplet architecture winning hard
I'm really surprised that LBT was so optimistic about consumer demand
Next year will be rough too
I think Intel badly underestimated how quickly higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction.
Those risks were already visible by the Q2 earnings call. Management acknowledged them, but still expected client revenue to hold roughly flat in Q3, supported by CPU inventory replenishment. That assumption now looks too optimistic. They should have set more conservative expectations for the client business.
Still, Lip-Bu did make some encouraging comments.
“We expect the industry to remain supply constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028.”
“We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027.”
“Growth would be higher in both years if additional industry supply were available.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan on CPUs:
“The resurgence in demand for CPU is a meaningful tailwind for us along our transformation journey."
"Increasingly, energy efficiency is becoming the most important metric for the AI infrastructure build-out."
"While GPUs are great at thinking tasks, deterministic CPUs are more efficient at doing tasks. While a GPU reasoning query can run as high as multiple watt-hours of energy, a single CPU query could cost only joules of energy."
"Applying even conservative estimates to the total number of digital agents and agents served per CPU, it is easy to anticipate a massive dollar and unit TAM for CPUs over the coming five years."
"By our estimates, server CPU TAM, largely driven by agentic workloads, could increase as much as five times from where it is today, from $40 billion to more than $200 billion over five years. This makes the opportunity for Intel enormous.”
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan:
“I also want to acknowledge headwinds limiting our progress to meet this extremely high AI-driven demand."
"First, Intel 3 yield and cycle time continue to improve, but I am demanding significant execution from the team."
"Second, even as our Intel 3 wafer output ramps quickly, an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for our EMIB packaging is also impacting our ability to scale output."
"Finally, early this month, an unfortunate and tragic accident led to an extended shutdown in our Israel factory.”
Alex A.C. retweeted
Remember $NBIS is trading for less than one time our projected 2027 ARR.
If we are too high by 50%, nebius is still trading less than two times next year’s exit.
Not many opportunities to intersect that deep of value, elite management, and an insatiable demand environment.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Joining forces with @tradexyz
Welcome to our community.
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
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ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
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Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Alex A.C. retweeted
$META is making its ad engine dramatically more powerful with $NVDA help. And this could have a meaningful impact on its advertising economics.
Meta and Nvidia have been working together to optimize Andromeda, Meta's AI-powered ad retrieval engine.
The results are impressive:
> 1B+ ads processed per second on a single GPU server
> 100x less network traffic through pipeline consolidation
> 300x fewer FLOPs per inference through model redesign
> 5.3x faster MoE gating, reaching ~85% of peak HBM bandwidth
And this is on Hopper (GH200). Not Blackwell. Not Rubin.
But the most interesting part isn't the raw throughput.
Meta and NVIDIA have optimized a sophisticated Mixture-of-Experts model to run nearly as fast as a simple dot-product scoring kernel.
In other words, Meta can make its ad targeting significantly more intelligent without a proportional increase in serving costs.
For a company generating well over $100B annually from advertising, even a 1% improvement in monetization could translate into billions in additional revenue. And that's before considering infrastructure savings.
For NVIDIA, there's another important takeaway: its competitive advantage extends far beyond the GPUs themselves. Its engineers are working directly with customers to redesign the models, kernels, and execution pipelines running on its hardware.
And Meta says there's still substantial performance headroom, with further optimization already underway for Grace Blackwell.
The real opportunity in AI isn't just building new products. It's making existing businesses more profitable. And NVIDIA is positioning itself at the center of both.
Alex A.C. retweeted
Aletheia is the best research house. Their industry intelligence is truly impressive.
Aletheia: Anthropic has increased its AMD GPU orders for 2028 to 3 GW—three times its original deployment target of 1 GW.
Aletheia: OpenAI has increased its total planned AMD GPU deployments over 2026–2028 from 6 GW to 8–9 GW.