Highlighted in pink – curious if you have similar/different perspectives...
teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/21173897…
…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (10/2026 month-end) – October monthly print quickly back-in-black yoy after September's negative dip, with Q4 opening strong and YTD growth ticking up; velocity still underwhelming and consumption retrenching (again) due to pump prices/Iran War, but DTS rn manifests the consumer lynchpin's onus on payrolls growth²:
👍 monthly:
+7.3% mtd yoy in October
(+8.3pp mom October/September)
👍 quarterly:
" " qtd yoy in Q4
(+506bps qoq Q4/Q3)
😬 yearly:
+2.7% ytd yoy thru October
(+50bps mom)
___
¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (tables II + IV): fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data… #dts
²"potential growth remains healthy/resilient [with] laborforce growth and new jobs [given] NFP displacing lower quartile consumer stress in aggregates": teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20836463…
…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (10/2026 month-end) – October monthly print quickly back-in-black yoy after September's negative dip, with Q4 opening strong and YTD growth ticking up; velocity still underwhelming and consumption retrenching (again) due to pump prices/Iran War, but DTS rn manifests the consumer lynchpin's onus on payrolls growth²:
👍 monthly:
+7.3% mtd yoy in October
(+8.3pp mom October/September)
👍 quarterly:
" " qtd yoy in Q4
(+506bps qoq Q4/Q3)
😬 yearly:
+2.7% ytd yoy thru October
(+50bps mom)
___
¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (tables II + IV): fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data… #dts
²"potential growth remains healthy/resilient [with] laborforce growth and new jobs [given] NFP displacing lower quartile consumer stress in aggregates": teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20836463…
/2
…this is another/different/unrelated "technicals feeding into valuation multiples, not fundamentals (yet)"⁵ – e.g. aforementioned Iran War friction in consumer flywheel has obviously⁶ disrupted:
TECHNICALLY:
capital's available but shifting risk-off (front end of curve) because savings balances depleted by gas prices, etc
👇
higher cost of capital (longer term yields and credit/debt spreads)
FUNDAMENTALLY:
potential growth remains healthy/resilient...
· laborforce growth and new jobs (NFP displacing lower quartile consumer stress in aggregates)
· inventory restocking impulse tailwinds
· AI supply/demand/multipliers/ROI/balance sheets maintaining velocity
__
⁵teapawt.net/i/status/2082506224881… #payrolls
⁶previously "geopolitical own-goals (e.g. Iran War) are biggest risk to derailing US economy": teapawt.net/i/status/1974231216254…
…MAGA hypocritical horsemen of their own apocalypse – legislating/policymaking/jawboning into existence nonexistent fabricated GOP crises (cont'd):
3️⃣5️⃣ woke washing, iconoclasm, virtue signaling, rewriting history – literally banning free speech en route (e.g. Trump's nueva woke stuff like renaming artificial intelligence/super intelligence, Denali/Mount McKinley, Gulf of Mexico/America, Lake Ontario/America, many forts, Department of Defense/War, Kennedy Center fail)
#ai #si #dod #dow
…I can't be the first person to notice this too, right?!
Cooper Flagg is Wesley (The Dread Pirate Roberts as played by Cary Elwes in The Princess Bride movie) with more vertical
#NBAstans #dopplegangers #lookalikes
Those 8.5s were a EUR denominated bond¹ from June 2026² ³ ⁴ – apples and oranges…
__
¹along with 9.625s in USD
²ccir.io/research/coreweave-d…
³investors.coreweave.com/news…
⁴d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.ne…
> "As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers" –Elon Musk (2026/10/25)
…another one that's readily dispelled:
__
¹teapawt.net/JackFarley96/status/21…
²reuters.com/technology/nebiu…
³nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-s… #neoclouds $NBIS
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
…ironic that terminal value risk was the centerpiece of the SaaSpocalypse earlier this year, because AI, and now terminal value's attention has turned to the AI trade itself – semantics, but problem is less that "the market doesn't believe its own profit forecast" and more that mkt doubts sustainability in out years, so semis are trading like basic materials or energy stocks that have enough FCF in FY0/FY1 to buyback half their float, then thereafter n00body knows 🙃:
> "Semiconductor earnings are +176% yoy, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2"
#SaaSmageddon $smh $xlb $xle
Semiconductor earnings are up 176% year-over-year, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2. The market doesn't believe its own profit forecasts.
🔒 Members-Only
quicktak.es/3vjb
Saw something strange and can't simply move on...
ALT https://x.com/SarangSood/status/2112585660259598439
A lot of replies saying that power constraints limiting deployment of leading edge GPUs, but beyond the AWS story from BI, hard to see that substantiated in pricing of leading edge systems (GB300) and chips (B200) – admittedly, GB300 is new and price data thin, but onus is on dissenters to disprove since price defies their narrative of a glut due to unusable GPU shadow supply:
__
¹gpus.io/en/gpus/gb300
²semianalysis.com/gpu-pricing…
³aipowered.com/compute-cloud-… $nvda
fwiw, Morgan Stanley's AI capex forecasts have been (and remain) higher than most other comps¹ because:
1️⃣ less deduplicating of neocloud spend (e.g. double counting more HCP/lab spend through neoclouds than other sell-side estimates²)
2️⃣ just higher cost/spend estimates 🙌
__
¹e.g. teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/21122182…
²MS's HCPs = Microsoft/Amazon/Google/Meta, whereas most estimates include Oracle, so deduplication apples-to-apples is hairy
/5
RISKS (HYPOTHETICAL CRUNCH SCENARIOS) – assuming a 100% total probability that a systemic liquidity or credit crunch occurs across the entire 2026–2030 forecast timeline, then there's an x% probability that the crunch occurs specifically within that modal timing window:
⚠️ Modal median:
45% conditional probability
+19.1 months (May–June 2028)
σ ±11.3 months = 80% CI July 2027 to November 2029
/4
IRR OUTLOOK (2026-30):
🔵 Datacenters:
+13.83% median IRR
(σ ±4.12% = 80% CI +8.54% to +19.11%)
🟣 AI Lab equity:
+11.29% median IRR
(σ ±28.26% = 80% CI -21.29% to +45.22%)
/3
FINANCIERS FUNDING FUTURE CAPEX – the following $3.15T "unfunded" future funding breakdown can be compared to $nvda (Nvidia ~$134B OCF TTM and $850B cumulative 2027-30e) and HCPs (hyperscalers ~$650B OCF 2026CYe and $5.2T cum 2027-30e)⁴ ⁵, nvm future debt and equity issuance:
• $1.85T from HCP⁴ direct capex (59%)
• $660B HCP off-balance sheet leases (21%)
• $320B Stargate JV⁶ (10%)
• $300B private equity/RE (10%)
• $250B private credit and bank loans (8%)
__
⁴HCPs include Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle
⁵again, "secured" includes current Nvidia + HCP cash flows, but not their future OCF growth, hench that future growth funding the "unfunded" bucket
⁶Stargate joint venture among OpenAI, Softbank, Oracle, and MGX
$amzn $msft $googl $meta $orcle $sftby #OBS #PE
/2
AL LABS FISCAL CHECKUP – both leading and also-ran labs seem to have secure R&D/lease pipelines, while $SPCX xAI remains the one dependent on capital markets in the short term:
• Anthropic:
34.6 month runway
0.13x burn/ARR ($65B ARR + $24.5B cash - $8.5B burn rate)
• OpenAI:
15.6 mo runway
0.63x burn/ARR ($40B ARR + $32.5B cash - $25B burn)
• xAI:
4.7 mo runway
12.4x burn/ARR ($3.3B ARR + $15.9B cash - $40.7B burn)
#xSI #leases
/1
DATACENTER COMMITMENTS AND FUNDING BY STATUS (2023-30):
2026e $820B capex (76% remitted + 24% secured¹)
➕
2027e $1.05T capex (65% secured¹ + 35% unfunded)
➕
2028e $1.28T (50/50)
➕
2029e $1.45T (36/64)
➕
2030e $1.62T (25/75)
🟰
2023-30e $7.085T cumulative³ ($1.48T/21% remitted + $2.45T/35% secured + $3.15T/45% unfunded)²
__
¹"secured" includes current Nvidia + HCP cash flows, but not their future OCF growth, hench that future growth funding the "unfunded" bucket
²see #3 below for "unfunded" funding breakdown
³75% of cum capex is 3–6 year depreciating silicon/IT hardware
$nvda #GPU share.gemini.google/4yyi6vfZ…
/0
...latest in my series on AI LAB AND DATACENTER FUNDING (previously teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/19854217…) – chapters for the 10/2025 update that follows:
1️⃣ Datacenter Commitments (2023–2030)
2️⃣ Datacenter Funding by Status (Remitted vs Secured vs Unfunded)
3️⃣ AI Labs Fiscal Checkup
4️⃣ Financiers
5️⃣ IRR Outlook (Labs vs Datacenters 2026–2030)
6️⃣ Risks (Crunch Scenario Analyses)
/5
…TLDR:
1️⃣ AI "center of gravity" R&D/startup funding runway is effectively secured through 2026h2⁸
2️⃣ AI "center of mass" datacenter capex is unfunded atm:
i. The "Power Wall" energy crunch
is already here⁹
ii. The "Funding Gap" cash crunch
escalates 2026-30
(+23% CAGR for cumulative $2.76T
funding requirement ex-$2.44T
self-funded from HCP cashflows)
⁸teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/19742021…
⁹tomshardware.com/tech-indust…