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"@anthpb
ranks in roughly the 96th–99th percentile on a composite of originality, objectivity, and accuracy among all X users." –@grok
teapawt.net/i/grok/share/edae79dbe…
Solutions for NBA three point shooting deluge – make these either turnover or 2-pointer, which would eliminate or change math/incentives for a lotta attempts:
1️⃣ can't pass from inside the key to outside 3-point line
2️⃣ can't dribble penetrate (slash) then kick out beyond 3PT
…adding another solution to my running list of rule changes to improve the NBA:
3️⃣ flopping and foulbaiting can be assessed retroactive technical fouls and fines (can be reviewed in game or next day by NBA Replay Center in Secaucus)
#basketball
…for a sport like basketball and a league like the NBA, one of the most analytics-pilled of em all, and at the confluence of both consensus player injury crises and second apron era, I can't believe not a single coach/GM has attempted/tested the hockey shift strategy:
10 guy rotations in which players hustle all out for quick substitutions – instead of grinding stars/starters all season for 40 minutes of load
/4
IRR OUTLOOK (2026-30):
🔵 Datacenters:
+13.83% median IRR
(σ ±4.12% = 80% CI +8.54% to +19.11%)
🟣 AI Lab equity:
+11.29% median IRR
(σ ±28.26% = 80% CI -21.29% to +45.22%)
…now, the datacenter ballot measures are one thing, but if you want to keep your eye on real risk, it's Texas, where datacenters were not on the midterm ballots, but a blue wave will now replace relatively datacenter-friendly incumbents – e.g. incoming governor (Gina Hinojosa-D) campaigned explicitly on DC construction moratorium, stricter power/water rules, and ending tax incentives:
TEXAS DATACENTERS¹:
50GW ERCOT pipeline indications² ³
(15~25% share of US total pipeline)
👇
49.8GW subject to preexisting preelection moratorium
👇
8.25GW expected ERCOT⁴ completions by 2030
(7% of US total completions)
➕
4~6GW expected BTM⁵ completions by 2030
(3~5% of US total completions)
👆
20~40GW BTM pipeline
(8~14% of US total pipeline)
TEXAS RISKS:
• max 7% of near-term US pipeline at risk
• primarily timing, cost, and siting risk (not permanent loss of capacity), since developers already shifting projects to other states and national pipeline can absorb relocation/phased delays without structural break
• prolonged TX freeze/ban would still be no bueno
__
¹about.bnef.com/insights/data…
²most planned projects aren't expected to be completed
³36GW early-stage (newly announced/preliminary) + 9GW committed (land/power/approvals) + 5GW under construction
⁴ERCOT grid interconnections only
⁵BTM projects are generally outside the pause's scope and may continue advancing
…Cleanview analysis (teapawt.net/curious_founder/status…) not at odds with mine (above), tho their headline/lede is different than mine:
Cleanview’s 158.6GW / 41% is the share of announcements that now sits in states whose governor/governor-elect has backed a datacenter pause/moratorium/freeze/ban – but that's mostly spec and share¹ that actually progresses to permitting/construction/completion will continue in and migrate to Virginia, Utah, Louisiana, Indiana, Arizona, and parts of the Midwest/South
__
¹teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/21178835…
Tuesday's election results will have sweeping impacts on America's data center boom.
Our team at Cleanview analyzed the data and found that newly elected governors could pause 41% of America’s planned data centers.
Here are some more takeaways from last night's results:
On Tuesday, voters elected governors and passed local measures that will change the course of the AI infrastructure boom. But much of the early coverage has been misleading or wrong.
Tuesday’s results don’t signal the end of the data center boom. They will, however, likely bring a pause in some of the largest markets and new regulations across the country—even in traditionally laissez-faire states like Texas.
159 GW of planned data centers are in states where the new governor backs a pause. That's 41% of the country's planned data center pipeline.
Another 69.2 GW (18%) is in states where the winner wants to change tax breaks or other rules but hasn’t backed a pause.
This week’s elections will also impact the power projects that data centers depend on, likely bringing more clean energy in some states and fewer on-site gas plants in others.
On-site gas plants will likely face new rules and delays. To build an on-site gas plant, a developer needs an air permit. That approval often goes through offices controlled by the executive branch, which means new Democratic governors could delay or block those permits.
Developers may need to buy more clean energy. A number of candidates campaigned on a promise to make data centers buy more clean energy.
David Crowley in Wisconsin called for 100% renewable energy as a condition for communities that accept a project. Haaland’s plan calls for self-built renewables. Michigan Democrats have proposed a bill requiring 90% clean procurement.
Another takeaway from last night: Local elections went overwhelmingly against data centers.
Data centers were directly on the ballot in 41 local elections across the country. Some ballot initiatives proposed outright bans, while others proposed temporary pauses. All of the races that have been called went against data centers.
Many questions remain about how many newly elected officials will follow through with their pauses, how long they'll last, which projects will be affected, and what new guardrails would look like.
We're planning to continue to cover this over the coming months. If you're interested in reading our analysis subscribe to the Cleanview newsletter or follow along here.
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
…okay, so datacenters were on the ballot¹ in midterm election 2026 and lost decisively almost everywhere² – but like the moratoriums preelection³, these measures aren't material to the overall US AI buildout:
PREELECTION MORATORIUMS:
🤏 low-impact
(because³ preemptive in places with no real prospect of projects; limited to unincorporated county land so city-sited or annexable projects escaped; temporary and timed to miss the permitting window; grandfathering of existing approvals; easy workarounds like sizing under thresholds, behind-the-meter generation, and reconfiguration; or pure virtue signaling)
MIDTERM ELECTIONS BALLOT MEASURES:
🗳️ strong majorities for datacenter restrictions in many places (70~80%)¹ ²
🤏 low impact:
few GW
(i.e. LSD percent of near-term annual additions⁴ and smaller fraction of the multi-year pipeline, even if every restricted project in these specific votes is fully blocked or delayed)
*VS*
60~80GW under construction in 2026
+38GW net additions in 2027
+62GW net additions in 2028
🤔 why:
• many measures grandfathered existing/under-construction projects
• few jurisdictions⁴ actually have datacenter pipelines and none are unsubstitutable
• designs can still be adjusted in some jurisdictions (smaller phases, BTM power, different sites)
📝 takeaways:
• organized, bipartisan, local opposition that can win decisively on power rates/cost allocation, water, noise, tax incentives/transparency (NDAs were a flashpoint in Piqua)
• Ohio localities add up to an aggregate that raises the bar for community benefits, transparency, and siting – could cascade into more state-level⁵ pressure or utility rate fights
• hyperscalers and AI labs have the capital and flexibility to relocate, phase projects, use BTM, or absorb higher costs
__
¹teapawt.net/jdcapelouto/status/211…
²datacentersontheballot.com/
³teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/21017104…
⁴e.g. 1.4GW Piqua OH + 1GW Emporia OH + smaller or threshold-limited others
⁵Ohio is a top-tier market, but most of its 13~30GW unaffected (because heavily concentrated around Columbus/New Albany with no ballot measures)
…updated status¹ of AI datacenter construction – another narrative violation² feeding populism and political opportunism into midterm elections:
😮 300 localities have enacted datacenter moratoriums³
🤏 3 datacenter projects⁴ actually affected by em
🤣 80% of jurisdictions with moratoriums don't even have DC project plans/capacity
📑 conditions for actually delaying a project are rare – at the crossection of…
1️⃣ DIRECT TERRITORIAL JURISDICTION:
county-level moratoriums almost universally govern only unincorporated territory, meaning any project annexed into or situated inside an incorporated municipality within that county is exempt
2️⃣ ACTIVE ENFORCEMENT STATUS:
Must be en force, not merely proposed, pending, or expired
3️⃣ STRICT TIMELINE OVERLAP (THE "GOLDILOCKS" PHASE):
The moratorium duration must intersect the exact phase when permitting/approvals are needed
4️⃣ NO ENGINEERING/CONFIGURATION WORKAROUNDS:
A lotta designs can be engineered around bans⁵ by reducing capacity below the regulated cutoff, reconfiguring the layout, or switching from a grid-interconnection design to behind-the-meter (BTM) on-site power
♾️
__
¹youtu.be/Qv2vMj0Uq3c?is=D2_5…
²teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20868817…
³across 17 states, led by 45 in MI and 40 in OH
⁴in terms of enacted legislative moratoriums materially disrupting fully capitalized, shovel-ready gigawatts – only 3 projects >20GW, including an AWS project in OH; North Point in PA; and a CoreSite expansion in CO
⁵e.g. Elon xAI $spcx deannexation of their own town
…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (9/2026 month-end) – September monthly print flipped negative yoy after August's mean reversion pop, tho both Q3 and YTD remained positive, albeit underwhelming velocity:
👎 monthly:
-1.0% mtd yoy in September
(-12.0pp mom September/August)
👍 quarterly:
+2.3% qtd yoy in Q3
(+170bps qoq Q3/Q2)
😬 yearly:
+2.2% ytd yoy thru September
(-80bps mom)
___
¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (tables II + IV): fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data… #dts
…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (10/2026 month-end) – October monthly print quickly back-in-black yoy after September's negative dip, with Q4 opening strong and YTD growth ticking up; velocity still underwhelming and consumption retrenching (again) due to pump prices/Iran War, but DTS rn manifests the consumer lynchpin's onus on payrolls growth²:
👍 monthly:
+7.3% mtd yoy in October
(+8.3pp mom October/September)
👍 quarterly:
" " qtd yoy in Q4
(+506bps qoq Q4/Q3)
😬 yearly:
+2.7% ytd yoy thru October
(+50bps mom)
___
¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (tables II + IV): fiscaldata.treasury.gov/data… #dts
²"potential growth remains healthy/resilient [with] laborforce growth and new jobs [given] NFP displacing lower quartile consumer stress in aggregates": teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20836463…
/2
…this is another/different/unrelated "technicals feeding into valuation multiples, not fundamentals (yet)"⁵ – e.g. aforementioned Iran War friction in consumer flywheel has obviously⁶ disrupted:
TECHNICALLY:
capital's available but shifting risk-off (front end of curve) because savings balances depleted by gas prices, etc
👇
higher cost of capital (longer term yields and credit/debt spreads)
FUNDAMENTALLY:
potential growth remains healthy/resilient...
· laborforce growth and new jobs (NFP displacing lower quartile consumer stress in aggregates)
· inventory restocking impulse tailwinds
· AI supply/demand/multipliers/ROI/balance sheets maintaining velocity
__
⁵teapawt.net/i/status/2082506224881… #payrolls
⁶previously "geopolitical own-goals (e.g. Iran War) are biggest risk to derailing US economy": teapawt.net/i/status/1974231216254…
…MAGA hypocritical horsemen of their own apocalypse – legislating/policymaking/jawboning into existence nonexistent fabricated GOP crises (cont'd):
3️⃣4️⃣ payments from foreign influence campaigns and access bribes a la Hunter Biden (e.g. Donald Trump Jr’s wedding benefactor Kremlev¹ and Jacob Wohl² pardon broker)
__
¹teapawt.net/thestalwart/status/209…
²teapawt.net/60minutes/status/20992… #laptop
In a hidden-camera operation, pardon brokers Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl said that for $300,000, they could help a felon get a pardon from the president. They said their services included working with influencers to advocate for his case. cbsn.ws/3VdugN7
…MAGA hypocritical horsemen of their own apocalypse – legislating/policymaking/jawboning into existence nonexistent fabricated GOP crises (cont'd):
3️⃣5️⃣ woke washing, iconoclasm, virtue signaling, rewriting history – literally banning free speech en route (e.g. Trump's nueva woke stuff like renaming artificial intelligence/super intelligence, Denali/Mount McKinley, Gulf of Mexico/America, Lake Ontario/America, many forts, Department of Defense/War, Kennedy Center fail)
#ai #si #dod #dow
This can't just be me:
Jason Momoa is just Steven Adams with hair extensions and makeup right...?
Good people on both sides, sure, sure...
but <spider man pointing dot gif>...
...I can't tell if Auburn's Johni Broome looks more like the son of Karl-Anthony Towns or another Martin brother – a third twin along with Caleb and Cody 👯
#doppelganger #twins #lookalike #kat
…I can't be the first person to notice this too, right?!
Cooper Flagg is Wesley (The Dread Pirate Roberts as played by Cary Elwes in The Princess Bride movie) with more vertical
#NBAstans #dopplegangers #lookalikes
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
…re AI revenue and capital from intra-industry closed-loop vs external sources¹ ² – I had analyzed this as part of thread above:
1️⃣ CLOSED-LOOP:
🟰 68% to 78% intra-industry revenue³
(out of gross total $320~427B Al ecosystem revenue)
2️⃣ EXOGENOUS CASH BREAKDOWN:
🅰️ 20% to 23.5% of gross AI ecosystem revenue ex-advertising⁴
($75~85B annually)
🅱️ 28.5% to 32.5% of gross " " " including ads⁴
($110~130B annually)
3️⃣ EXOGENOUS MONETIZATION NOW VS FUTURE NEED:
$120B exogenous revenue (2026 midpoint)
🟰 15% of annual physical capex ($820B in 2026)
🟰 3.5% of annual terminal revenue requirement⁵ ($3.72T or 9.2% of US GDP⁶ by 2032)
__
¹teapawt.net/TMTMoats/status/211404…
²stratechery.com/2026/an-inte… #roundtripping #depreciation
³2026 capital rotating between chipmakers, cloud hosts, model labs, and SPVs via circular vendor financing, equity-for-compute swaps, and offtake guarantees
⁴Al advertising productivity uplift vs control ≈ $33~47B annually (Meta Advantage+ plus Google PMax/Search Overviews)
⁵assumes 10% ROIC and 50% OCF margin hurdles
⁶assumes 6-year GPU lifespan (increases to $4.86T / 12% of GDP under a 4-year useful life and decreased to $3.15T / 7.8% under 8-year)
Listened to Craig Moffett on @stratechery. Great framing of the AI bubble/overbuild question.
What he learned in 1999 was to ignore revenue that moves between layers of the value chain. Telcos paying telcos for capacity was real revenue & it didn't matter. $NVDA selling to $CRWV is the same thing today.
What matters is money coming in from outside the system. Enterprises, consumers, governments paying the labs. Project that out and ask if it covers the cost of the whole stack underneath. Nobody can answer that yet, and we probably won't know until the capex is spent. That's why the market is nervous.
His worry is deflation. Drug discovery probably needs the best model. Customer service at a bank doesn't, and something two generations old does it for a fraction of the cost. Push that far enough and you get models running on a laptop, and the biggest capital investment in history ends up serving a thinner slice of the revenue than planned.
He's clear the products are transformational & that when revenue is there, capital usually finds it. His doubt is whether the money arrives before the bills do. All that fiber got used eventually & the industry probably did earn it back in the end. However, plenty of the companies that laid it in 1999 still went bankrupt along the way. The technology being real & the capex earning its return are 2 different questions.
AI APIs and SDKs are where a hella lotta more standalone apps go to die by aggregation...
Starts as an offer you can't refuse (FOMO, collective action, coordination problem) – but ends with apps getting pushed to the background as faceless backends...
medium.com/adventures-in-con…
...related:
teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20603977…
…software $igv – how it began (teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/20274813…); how it ended (🎯🎯🎯):
calling off SaaSmageddon and the SaaSpocalypse
#technicals #charts #saas
…ironic that terminal value risk was the centerpiece of the SaaSpocalypse earlier this year, because AI, and now terminal value's attention has turned to the AI trade itself – semantics, but problem is less that "the market doesn't believe its own profit forecast" and more that mkt doubts sustainability in out years, so semis are trading like basic materials or energy stocks that have enough FCF in FY0/FY1 to buyback half their float, then thereafter n00body knows 🙃:
> "Semiconductor earnings are +176% yoy, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2"
#SaaSmageddon $smh $xlb $xle
Semiconductor earnings are up 176% year-over-year, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2. The market doesn't believe its own profit forecasts.
🔒 Members-Only
quicktak.es/3vjb
Saw something strange and can't simply move on...
ALT https://x.com/SarangSood/status/2112585660259598439
fwiw, Morgan Stanley's AI capex forecasts have been (and remain) higher than most other comps¹ because:
1️⃣ less deduplicating of neocloud spend (e.g. double counting more HCP/lab spend through neoclouds than other sell-side estimates²)
2️⃣ just higher cost/spend estimates 🙌
__
¹e.g. teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/21122182…
²MS's HCPs = Microsoft/Amazon/Google/Meta, whereas most estimates include Oracle, so deduplication apples-to-apples is hairy
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/5
RISKS (HYPOTHETICAL CRUNCH SCENARIOS) – assuming a 100% total probability that a systemic liquidity or credit crunch occurs across the entire 2026–2030 forecast timeline, then there's an x% probability that the crunch occurs specifically within that modal timing window:
⚠️ Modal median:
45% conditional probability
+19.1 months (May–June 2028)
σ ±11.3 months = 80% CI July 2027 to November 2029
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/4
IRR OUTLOOK (2026-30):
🔵 Datacenters:
+13.83% median IRR
(σ ±4.12% = 80% CI +8.54% to +19.11%)
🟣 AI Lab equity:
+11.29% median IRR
(σ ±28.26% = 80% CI -21.29% to +45.22%)
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/3
FINANCIERS FUNDING FUTURE CAPEX – the following $3.15T "unfunded" future funding breakdown can be compared to $nvda (Nvidia ~$134B OCF TTM and $850B cumulative 2027-30e) and HCPs (hyperscalers ~$650B OCF 2026CYe and $5.2T cum 2027-30e)⁴ ⁵, nvm future debt and equity issuance:
• $1.85T from HCP⁴ direct capex (59%)
• $660B HCP off-balance sheet leases (21%)
• $320B Stargate JV⁶ (10%)
• $300B private equity/RE (10%)
• $250B private credit and bank loans (8%)
__
⁴HCPs include Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle
⁵again, "secured" includes current Nvidia + HCP cash flows, but not their future OCF growth, hench that future growth funding the "unfunded" bucket
⁶Stargate joint venture among OpenAI, Softbank, Oracle, and MGX
$amzn $msft $googl $meta $orcle $sftby #OBS #PE
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/2
AL LABS FISCAL CHECKUP – both leading and also-ran labs seem to have secure R&D/lease pipelines, while $SPCX xAI remains the one dependent on capital markets in the short term:
• Anthropic:
34.6 month runway
0.13x burn/ARR ($65B ARR + $24.5B cash - $8.5B burn rate)
• OpenAI:
15.6 mo runway
0.63x burn/ARR ($40B ARR + $32.5B cash - $25B burn)
• xAI:
4.7 mo runway
12.4x burn/ARR ($3.3B ARR + $15.9B cash - $40.7B burn)
#xSI #leases
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/1
DATACENTER COMMITMENTS AND FUNDING BY STATUS (2023-30):
2026e $820B capex (76% remitted + 24% secured¹)
➕
2027e $1.05T capex (65% secured¹ + 35% unfunded)
➕
2028e $1.28T (50/50)
➕
2029e $1.45T (36/64)
➕
2030e $1.62T (25/75)
🟰
2023-30e $7.085T cumulative³ ($1.48T/21% remitted + $2.45T/35% secured + $3.15T/45% unfunded)²
__
¹"secured" includes current Nvidia + HCP cash flows, but not their future OCF growth, hench that future growth funding the "unfunded" bucket
²see #3 below for "unfunded" funding breakdown
³75% of cum capex is 3–6 year depreciating silicon/IT hardware
$nvda #GPU share.gemini.google/4yyi6vfZ…
Anthony Bardaro retweeted
/0
...latest in my series on AI LAB AND DATACENTER FUNDING (previously teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/19854217…) – chapters for the 10/2025 update that follows:
1️⃣ Datacenter Commitments (2023–2030)
2️⃣ Datacenter Funding by Status (Remitted vs Secured vs Unfunded)
3️⃣ AI Labs Fiscal Checkup
4️⃣ Financiers
5️⃣ IRR Outlook (Labs vs Datacenters 2026–2030)
6️⃣ Risks (Crunch Scenario Analyses)
/5
…TLDR:
1️⃣ AI "center of gravity" R&D/startup funding runway is effectively secured through 2026h2⁸
2️⃣ AI "center of mass" datacenter capex is unfunded atm:
i. The "Power Wall" energy crunch
is already here⁹
ii. The "Funding Gap" cash crunch
escalates 2026-30
(+23% CAGR for cumulative $2.76T
funding requirement ex-$2.44T
self-funded from HCP cashflows)
⁸teapawt.net/AnthPB/status/19742021…
⁹tomshardware.com/tech-indust…