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baug cube
Joined November 2022
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ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
I don’t have £2 million in assets, and I don’t earn £200k a year. I’m quite short on both counts. So the HMRC wealth audit doesn’t impact me. Yet.
But it signals a clear intention. A lack of respect for the individual. What is yours is only yours until the government decides they want it to fund further welfare expansion.
Property rights only exist in this country as long as your holdings are meagre enough to escape the fiscal Eye of Sauron. They will come for it all.
Daughter: I want to wear a costume to the party
Me: ok, who are you dressing as?
D: princess ironman
M: we can make that work
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
I'm convening a UK space advocacy group. First meeting is in Cambridge on the 28th October, at 8pm. Venue TBA, will be near the train station for those travelling. I am hoping to bring together a wide variety of skills, and share expertise.
If you can make it, please DM me with your email address, and I'll add you yo the list.
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
coolest gift ever. space trading cards from @StarbenchA
thanks so much @kmcannon!
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
messaging my wife a link containing proof of her husband cheating on her from an anonymous instagram account and then when she clicks on it texting her to let her know she failed the family phishing test and she has to retake my cybersecurity course
Hell yeah, bullish on weaponised pitbulls
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
In morale terms it's impossible to say how absolutely huge this is.
ArmYear 🦾 retweeted
the way they're right, I fell down some rabbit hole about it but tldr: over a 50 year timespan, you have a 3x higher chance of becoming homeless than u do of becoming a millionaire
people in this thread believe this misleading "snapshot of any given night" cope but this doesn't show probablistic outcomes over time..
I modeled out something to illustrate this, using markov modeling (where someone is now vs where they'll be next year) with this "transition" state matrix:
• Housed (A)
• hidden homeless (RV, car, any building not intended for residency, couch surfing, hotels, shelters) (B)
• street homeless (C)
• dead (D)
We can set a baseline probability based on 50% of adults in US not being able to afford a $400 emergency and assign a "buffer rate" for state B (e.g. gets evicted, stays w/friend)
A "Homeless trap" rate is assigning a likelihood a person is to go from state B to C. We can also more confidently assign a death rate (from B/C to D) since we have disease of despair and partial homeless death data vs typical mortality data by income bracket, so I assign an attrition line for it. If we run a simulation for 100k ppl over a 50 year timeline we get:
1) extended periods in extreme poverty act as an exit vector via premature death: it is 450% more lethal to be homeless than not, which tracks with empirical data. This keeps the number of nightly street homeless low.
2) The picture over time is that u will see ~1-3% of US population physically on the street each night, but over a lifetime ~30% of the population will experience being homeless.
3) the permanent underclass: 92-95% of millionaires now will be millionaires one year from now. However if we look at HUD data for episodic homelessness, if you experience it once, there is an 18% chance it will occur again, once you are classified as "chronically homeless" which is 4 episodes in a 3 year period, you have an 80% likelihood you will remain homeless.
4) the gap between these two isn't nearly as large as some claim it is, bc of our death variable & unseen homelessness states.
5) This model holds the same trend as other models have: the number one predictor of longevity is wealth accumulation.
Not a cheery thought but I thought I would point out that sometimes people's vibe reads are entirely correct even if a snapshot statistic disagrees with it.
everyone thinks for some reason that they are closer to becoming a millionaire than becoming homeless.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Recent polling shows a majority of US voters believe they are more likely to become homeless than a millionaire. US data show roughly 23.6 million millionaires versus ~746,000 experiencing homelessness on a given night.
dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/8/13…
investopedia.com/new-report-rev…
hud.gov/news/hud-no-26…
