Shish🍌 retweeted
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Shish🍌 retweeted
#ADA Analysis 👀
Hey everyone! Here’s my take on Cardano (ADA-USD). If the weekly candle closes above 0.622, we could see a bullish surge towards 0.8939. However, a close below 0.622 may signal a drop to 0.4570.
📊 Scenarios:
Bullish: Close above 0.622 → Target 0.8939
Bearish: Close below 0.622 → Target 0.4570
🔑 Key Levels:
Support: 0.4570
Resistance: 0.622, 0.8939
💬 Thoughts on ADA this week? Share below!
Trade safe! #ADAUSDT
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Shish🍌 retweeted
$BTC - Monthly
Friend asked me to TA the monthly chart on BTC. And gun to head, this is what I'd mark up as a potential scenario.
Key points:
- We're finding relentless support around 80-82k on a closing basis. Two reasons for that: 1) It's 50% of the monthly imbalance and 2) It's the Yearly Value Area High.
- We have a monthly draw into 95k given we are closing monthly candles as a SFP.
- Structurally, I find it unlikely to fully reverse from here (as in make new ATHs), but closing back above 100k is the signal (i.e. where it would make more sense to bet on upside and be proven wrong than 'expect' more downside).
- Summer rally into 95k then dump into the start of Q3 (or Q4). I could get behind - with the ultimate lows coming in into Monthly Demand ~ 60s. If this were to unfold, I'd be looking at a move to 125k.
The key take away is not to expect this path per se, it is:
- Expect a potential rally into 95k and in the first instance expect a rejection (resistance until proven otherwise).
- However a reclaim of 100k is significant and all downside scenarios would be off the table (until the rally failed)
- If a significant rejection into ~ 95k prints, there is a potential for a 1:1 move to follow into around 60s. IF/When the high around 95k prints, measure 1:1. I'd be looking at 0.786 / 1:1 for a bottom.
GL
Shish🍌 retweeted
$BTC: The yellow scenario remains the preferred count. Ideally, wave 2 is starting from here, with a possible extension into the $84,860–$85,724 zone. From there, wave 3 could take the wheel and drag BTC toward $75K.
A clean break below $79,189 would add weight to the idea that wave 3 of (3) is already in motion. If we do hit $75K, that zone could mark the end of the 2025 correction, and a major low worth watching closely.
Big moves are on the table. Stay ready.
#Bitcoin
Shish🍌 retweeted
$BTC longs
Nice drop, Astro block hit ✅ Plan to size up longs
Alright started longing yesterday, with very small size in anticipation and as a healthy medium of a very confident bullish bias (i.e. the low we called at 78k, in live time, holding up and not being broken down), but also with caution for a high probability of heading lower to tap our Astro Block.
Now that happened, and I am fully bullish.
Not added to longs yet, but if we head back to the weekly open, I am adding a low amount again (no limits set, will call entry in live time). And if we confirm the range, take the low at 82k and confirm with range or three drives, then (and only then) I am going full size long (also no limits set, will call entry in live time), as that is the most bullish scenario the market can offer.
So, compared to last trade which of which we nailed the bottom, this long, I am managing more loosely purely because the bias is so obvious and we have received plenty of confirmation of prior analysis.
So as we hit 82k, I suspect fear to peak again at that time, all happening right into quadruple high timeframe array of confluences of this going higher.
Summary
Thus overall approach is being bullish but patient, and when we hit 82k, be fully bullish. Fade the bears as we are hearing things again like "Chart looks bad" "Macro is bad" "The top is in", still until today.
Funny as those same people were saying "we are so back" in November and October.
All power to them, it's good information for us, especially as they are tracked closely over the course of a year now.
$BTC
Addition to the update, took a small long, adding more if 82k comes
Just posted how the drop is playing out and how I still want lower and how I am willing to wait patiently for it.
But we already received part of the pullback we wanted from 87k, and just re-evaluated the plan and given how price is slowing its descent here and CME whales are already bidding here, right after front running the Astro Block on binance futures (second highest volume exchange), yet it hitting on CME (highest volume exchange), I don't want to get complacent or greedy, thinking 82k is guaranteed in this case.
Also given the high timeframe and our projections of a bullish trend, we could reverse here.
So this is not a bottom call, the bottom call was the one we gave live at 80k.
But this is a call to just punt a very small initial size long (quarter size of typical size) right here to not miss out and stay in the mindset of remaining bullish in position (NFA).
Because again, this market is not bearish, we already received part of our pullback, and getting greedy may end up in a miss.
If we get 82k, I'll still end up adding normal size and quadrupling my position.
Shish🍌 retweeted
TLDR for ETH & BTC Today:
🔹 ETH Analysis (Short-Term)
Price: ETH is sitting around $1,945 with a slow grind upwards.
Liquidation Map: A major cluster of long liquidations around $1,950-$1,970, meaning price could hover here before a possible breakout or fakeout.
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Still negative → More sell orders than buys, indicating passive selling pressure.
Funding Rate: Slightly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs, which can be bullish if it flips.
Open Interest (OI): Increasing → More positions being built, but the direction is unclear yet.
Bid-Ask Delta: Strong negative spike → More aggressive market selling, which is short-term bearish.
📝 Summary for ETH
Bullish case (60% probability): If price holds $1,930-$1,950, a short squeeze above $1,970-$2,000 could happen.
Bearish case (40% probability): If price drops below $1,930, next target is $1,900-$1,880 to take out remaining longs.
🔹 BTC Analysis (Short-Term)
Price: BTC hovering near $84,340 with key liquidations between $84,500-$85,000.
Liquidation Map: Similar to ETH, BTC has long liquidations stacked above, meaning market makers could push price up first before any big dump.
Funding Rate: Neutral/slightly negative → No clear leverage imbalance yet.
Open Interest (OI): Steady increase, suggesting more traders entering positions.
📝 Summary for BTC
Bullish case (55% probability): BTC reclaims $84,500 and pushes toward $85,000-$86,000 if shorts get squeezed.
Bearish case (45% probability): A breakdown below $83,500 could send BTC to $82,000.
🔹 Final Take
ETH & BTC both show a slight bullish bias but remain in a choppy range.
Watch for ETH to break $1,950 and BTC to break $84,500 for direction confirmation.
Funding rates & open interest suggest a possible squeeze in either direction.
Short-term: Expect volatility, especially if funding & OI shift quickly.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #CryptoTrading
Shish🍌 retweeted
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$ATOM SHORT 📉
Sl 4.450
Tp 4.057 3.883 3.621
💭For me now the market looks on sale and there are factors that indicate a weakness in volumes.
The price tests the POI zone well, but there is liquidity below that needs to be taken away as fuel
Risk 1%
Shish🍌 retweeted
Entered a $BTC long at ~$88.5k, exited ~50% on this LTF spike to $92.5k.
Expect further to run today through the crypto summit tomorrow at 6pm, and will look to exit the remaining position at some point upon further run up.
Ofc dependent on tradfi flows, but looking like agricultural exemptions to tariffs may be announced today 📈.
One key level to keep an eye on is yearly open ~$93.7k. Flip and confirm, and you have have a backdrop for a potential bullish LTF long if all goes well at the summit. If it doesn’t, second rejection and back down.
I’m not sure if I’ll ultimately be bold enough to short this pump heading into the summit. So far, it hasn’t paid off to bet against buy signals from this administration. And they, since auto tariffs were delayed yesterday on Canada/Mexico, are strongly signaling “buy” at the moment.
Keep a close eye on tradfi markets … funny feeling the short opportunity is somewhere between now and Mondsy of next week, when we potentially repeat the (what seems like) weekly cycle of rug pull into recovery that has been a pattern since Inauguration Day (study deep seas in Jan, tariffs pt I in February, and now pt II in March).
Ps … weekly candle looking pretty funny, init? 👀
Stay locked in, gl 🙏🏻.
Shish🍌 retweeted
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