Ariel

📺 POST-ELECTION RALLY OR BULL TRAP? + $SPY / $QQQ KEY LEVELS + THOUGHTS ON $TSLA & $SPCX + $AMZN TO LEAD? What a roller coaster! Following the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections, markets initially plunged overnight, with S&P 500 $SPX futures down nearly 100 handles. But by morning, futures had staged a massive reversal, with $SPY indicated $8 higher and $QQQ up roughly $3. Is this the beginning of a sustainable post-election rally into Christmas, or just another bull trap? * The most important thing right now is to focus on what we can control: risk management, price action, and making good trading decisions rather than getting caught up in political headlines. Here's what REALLY matters: 1. $SPY: a potential double bottom and a bullish gap pivot? $SPY has tested the $749–750 area twice, potentially establishing a double bottom. Now we're seeing a powerful gap higher, with #SPY approaching $763. The key is whether buyers can defend today's gains. Holding $763 and, more importantly, $757 could create a bullish gap pivot and open the door to a move toward the upper end of the trading range. But if we lose $763, break below $757, and print another big red candle, this rally could quickly turn into another failed breakout. 2. $QQQ: reclaiming the 200-day moving average! Technology has been relatively weak, but $QQQ is now back above its 200-day moving average, with $698 an important level to watch. Sometimes markets test the 200-day, experience distribution, and then reclaim it. If that reclaim holds, it could signal a meaningful improvement in the trend. * Some thoughts on $TSLA & $SPCX after Democrats win. First of all, #Tesla was one of the weakest names yesterday, and its bearish-looking candle prompted me to exit my position ahead of the election results. That decision saved me from today's roughly $18 premarket decline. With concerns that Democrats could target Elon Musk, #TSLA is under pressure. However, the 200-day moving average and a nearby gap fill around $377 could provide support. I'll be watching whether Tesla establishes a five-minute low and bounces before considering a tactical entry. $SPCX on the other hand hasn't been acting well for active swing traders. It's below its moving averages and hasn't offered a compelling setup. Long-term investors may view it differently, but for active trading, relative strength matters. So, I am not in #SPCX and don't consider it now. * We talked about $AMZN yesterday, which looked considerably better than Tesla. Since earnings, buyers have defended weakness, the stock has shown follow-through, and yesterday's inside candle was constructive. Now #AMZN is up roughly $7 and trading above $255. If the election turns out to be a clearing event and the market rallies into Thanksgiving and Christmas, Amazon could be one of the names worth holding. * So, the bigger question now: can we finally get a sustainable two-to-six-week trend instead of another frustrating one-day bounce? I'd love to see a market where we can build positions, hold winners, and get paid for sitting in them. But I'm not chasing this massive gap higher. I'm actually trimming some exposure into strength and watching how much of the opening move holds. The next few sessions will tell us whether this is the start of a real year-end rally or just another opportunity to sell into strength. It's going to be interesting. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet