Industry Pickup Auction: 9-cat H2H, $200 budget. Live Sat 17 Oct, 7pm ET. Nomination order: 1 @pointmadebball 2 @NbaAoc 3 @fantasylabs_ai 4 @NBAFantasyBible 5 @Adamking91 6 @9CatNinja 7 @CourtDepth 8 @raphiellej 9 @FantasyISO 10 @HoopProficient 11 @BartilottaJoel 12 @fbw_podcast

Jaren Jackson Jr. played 80% of his minutes at center when he won defensive player of the year. He’s an ELITE small ball center. Nurk and Hayes are going to eat 28 minutes a game. JJJ will eat the other 20. Stop acting like losing Walker made us 10 games worse

I built a salary model where you can see every player's value through 2031. Tells you which contracts are good/bad (and by how much), and what fair market value is going forward. Here's what my model says about upcoming free agent Coby White:

Interesting starting lineup observations from Wednesday: -VJ Edgecombe started over Quentin Grimes -Payton Pritchard over Anfernee Simons -Sam Hauser over Chris Boucher -Neemias Queta over Luka Garza -Kristaps Porzingis over Onyeka Okongwu -Nikola Jovic over Kel’el Ware -Ben Saraf over Egor Demin -Ryan Kalkbrenner over Moussa Diabate -Derrick Jones Jr. over John Collins -Issac Okoro over Ayo Dosunmu -Jock Landale over Santi Aldama -Oso Ighadoro starting (Mark Williams on a minutes restriction) -Cooper Flagg started at PG over D’Angelo Russell, and P.J. Washington slotted in at SF -Tre Jones started at SG for the injured Coby White #FantasyBasketball

Here is my recap from the @industrypickup auction draft, as promised. A reminder to do all of the things that help us grow. Subscribe, like, thumb, hype. You.know the drill... @OldManSquad @FanDuel @Fantrax YouTube: youtu.be/1g6A2pnzync?si=D1gJ… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0o6… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…

30 teams in 30 days: Orlando Magic — presented by @dlee4three ✍️ x @tipoffball 🎨 Offseason Overview, Season Outlook, Record Prediction Notable Additions: Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, Jase Richardson, Noah Penda Notable Subtractions: Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, Caleb Houstan Depth Chart: PG: Jalen Suggs / Tyus Jones / Jase Richardson SG: Desmond Bane / Anthony Black SF: Franz Wagner / Tristan da Silva / Jett Howard / Jamal Cain PF: Paolo Banchero / Jonathan Isaac / Noah Penda C: Wendell Carter Jr / Moritz Wagner / Goga Bitadze / Orlando Robinson Roster Hierarchy: Franchise: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner Core: Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Jase Richardson Key Rotation: Wendell Carter Jr, Tristan da Silva, Jonathan Isaac, Moritz Wagner Rotation: Goga Bitadze, Anthony Black, Tyus Jones, Jett Howard Development: Noah Penda, Jamal Cain, Orlando Robinson Offseason Overview: Orlando entered the offseason with maybe the most glaringly obvious area of need a team has ever had following a playoff exit, with every indicator pointing in bright red ink at the Magic’s inability to shoot the basketball. Orlando’s three-point percentage was a full 4.1% WORSE than the 36% league average, the worst relative 3P shooting season since the 2014 Sixers, who were actively TRYING to lose games. This inability to put the ball in the basket directly led to ORL experiencing 3 of their 10 weakest defensive performances in their 1st round series against the Celtics, as they weren’t able to set their suffocating defense after makes. Jeff Weltman wasted zero time addressing ORL’s shooting woes, swinging a trade that brought in Desmond Bane for Cole Anthony, KCP and 4 first round picks plus a swap. Jase was a seamless pick at 25, addressing the aforementioned need while also introducing some much ended creativity into ORL’s backcourt. The Magic identified they needed more than just the static spot-up shooting KCP was intended to provide last season, and Bane enters their rotation as a ~T5 shooter in the league over the last half-decade. The biggest plus is Bane should have at worst a neutral impact on their defensive integrity, evidenced by his time in Memphis as a willing and competent team defender. Pre-Draft Areas of Need 🥇3P Conversion: 4th in Open 3PAr (83.1%), -4.1% relative 3P% (Worst 3P shooting season by a team since 2014) 🥈Pace: 26th in Transition Frequency (16.4%), 30th in Transition Shot Quality 🥉Motion Scoring: 30th in Motion Playtypes PPP (0.804) Bane is a T5 shooter in the league, but it will take internal development to creep towards league average as a team. Season Outlook: 1. Can Suggs’ return increase Orlando’s transition frequency? It just doesn’t make sense that Orlando has ONE season in the last 5 years with an above average transition frequency, considering they’ve also been a bottom 10 halfcourt offense during that time span. It’s unacceptable that the Magic played at the slowest pace in the league last season, as their spacing issues become even more magnified with every second that ticks off the shot clock, allowing defenses to sag off of spacers and press ballhandlers with the shot clock on their side. With Suggs on the floor, ORL got out in transition much more frequently — due to his defensive playmaking and quick decision making in the open floor — which is a huge boost for their anemic HC offense. Suggs improved ORL’s transition frequency by 4.2% last year (99th%), continuing an impact that he’s replicated since he entered the league. ORL has to be intentional about playing faster whether Suggs is on the floor or not, as transition offense is an absolute must for a team that features so much defensive playmaking and athleticism, particularly since Franz is one of the league’s best transition weapons, ranking 4th in Points Over Expectation* just 2 seasons ago in 2023. 2. Will Bane’s arrival unlock Paolo as a screener? There isn’t a player on the roster who will benefit more from Desmond Bane than Paolo Banchero, as I believe he introduces a potential synergy that will open up aspects of Banchero’s game that have laid dormant. At 6’10 and 255ish pounds, PB5 is a devastating threat when he gets going downhill, but he’s had to navigate cramped driving lanes while self-creating a vast majority of his shots. He’s been tasked with one of the heaviest creation loads in the league, ranking in the 99th% in True Shot Attempts, though his efficiency hasn’t yet caught up to his peers. Among the 45 players who average at least 26 TSA per 100 the last 2 years, Paolo’s efficiency ranks 39th (-3.55% WORSE than the “star-usage” average TS%). This is an indictment on Paolo’s shot selection, but it’s also a reflection on how ORL’s offensive context has been far from ideal. Franz is one of the better PNR players in the league, but because he;s often guarded by a similar archetype that Paolo is, Orlando has struggled to force the defense into conflict with Wagner as the handler and Banchero as the screener. They finally have their guard ballhandler that’s a dual-threat as a pull-up shooter and PNR operator, which should in theory allow Paolo’s finishing playtypes to make up more than 33% of his overall shot diet. He rolled to the basket just 7% and 5% of the time over the last 2 years, increasing that frequency above 10% would do wonders for opening up the rest of his game. If he buys in as a screener and adjusts his points of attack further down the floor as opposed to isoing from the top of the key, I think we could see Paolo replicate the jump Randle made when Brunson put on a Knicks jersey. 3. What’s the optimal split for ballhandling duties between Franz, Bane and Paolo? While I just spent a couple paragraphs advocating for Paolo to embrace more of a finishing role, his speed x strength intersection as a perimeter creator is still incredibly valuable, and it's on ORL to put him in a better position to attack by forcing mismatches. Coach Mosley needs to sift out the handling hierarchies for his new trio, which I currently envision as a 40/30/30 split, with Franz handling the 40% share. He’s the best standstill creator, playmaker and PNR operator, thus his downhill ability should be prioritized as one of the main engines of this offense. Bane’s pull-up ability is by far the most developed, so any actions featuring him as the handler with Franz/Paolo screening will force defenses to overreact, opening up opportunities for slips to the screener or skip passes to an open Suggs. A typical offensive possession should feature at least 2, if not all 3, of these guys touching the rock, with Suggs reps attacking from the weakside sprinkled in. 4. Could we see a center/frontcourt consolidation trade? Orlando has monopolized the backup center market for the past 2 years, retaining their 2 heavily coveted and super productive backups, Goga Bitadze and Mo Wagner. ORL’s center rotation is one of the more robust 3-man groups overall, but with the Bane addition and some of the diminishing returns of rostering 3 true centers with Isaac on the roster (and maybe even running Banchero at the 5 someday), I’m curious if 1 of these guys could become available. Among their 3 bigs, the metrics like Goga the most, thanks to his voracious offensive rebounding, plus his combination of efficiency (+5.5 rTS%, 2nd among ORL bigs), rim deterrence (-1.2% rim frequency on/off, 1st among ORL bigs) and rim protection (-3.4 rim opp FG%, 2nd among ORL bigs). Mo is the best offensive big, putting together 2 back to back seasons of way above league-average efficiency, but he’s by far the worst rim protector, in the 20th% in rim opp FG% diff among centers. Wendell had a tough year shooting the ball (-3.5 rTS%, 14th%) but he’s ORL’s best rim protector, with a -7.8 rim opp FG% diff. Each guy brings a distinct skillset to the center position, and I imagine that if ORL identifies an area of need offensively at the deadline and Isaac is healthy, they may try and package Wendell at the deadline. If they need more defensive support, perhaps Goga or Mo (if Franz allows it) could be moved. 5. How many games will it take for Jase Richardson to supersede Tyus Jones in the rotation? From both a fit and value perspective, Orlando selecting Jase Richardson 25th overall was hands-down my favorite pick of the draft. Richardson was one of the more robust offensive prospects in this past class, ranking 2nd among freshmen in BPM, in the 96th% on 378 total scoring possessions via @beyondtheRK, all while shooting 84% from the FT line and 41% from three. Jase is the near sure-fire shooting and scoring prospect ORL needed to add to their developmental pipeline, especially since his skillset is incredibly connective, operating within the flow of the offense with enough passing feel to get everyone else involved. Richardson isn’t infallible of course, as his weight and height introduce questions about his defensive viability, he didn’t quite display his best-of-class efficiency on heavy volume and the off the dribble shooting numbers pale in comparison to his off the catch shooting numbers (46% on C&S 3s, 29% on Pull-Up 3s). However, the Magic’s unique infrastructure featuring 3 wing creators and a strong defensive shell mitigates most of his most pressing red flags. The biggest question is whether Jase will be given the opportunity to flourish, considering ORL acquired Tyus Jones. I’ve been banging the drum all offseason about the lack of value a traditional PG provides in 2025, with Tyus as the poster child for this risk-averse, negative scoring gravity archetype. To his credit, he did up the 3P volume a bit and now has back to back 40+ 3P% seasons, but I fear this is a Marcus Smart/Terry Rozier/Kyrie Irving situation, meaning that ORL should take a page out of BOS’ book and empower their wings in the offense instead of reducing their on-ball % to accommodate a traditional PG. Conversely, Jase is their more offensively-tilted Derrick White, the quintessential scalable complementary guard, if they give him a chance to blossom. Record Prediction: Total Wins Over/Under: 51.5 via BetMGM Floor: 48-34 (+7 wins) It really can’t be understated how ridiculous it is that the Magic won 41 games despite having the worst modern 3P offense EVER, with their 3 core pieces playing a combined 97 minutes together. That’s a testament to how incredible their defense was, and it’s also a sign that there’s only one way for this team to go considering their offseason additions, and that’s rocketing up the standings. Ceiling: 53–29 (+8 wins) The city of Orlando hasn’t seen an above league average offense since 2012, a streak this group has a realistic chance at breaking if Paolo sacrifices a bit of on-ball touches, Franz’s jumper continues to look the way it did in Eurobasket and Mosley successfully installs the requisite transition principles to turn their biggest strength into instant offense. Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Magic this season? Up Next: Indiana Pacers #Magic #OrlandoMagic #MagicTogether

How many wins?