The reason I’m leaning more toward the 2002 end of my spectrum: 1. The Dems had been crushing the mail vote in the elections that put them in the ballgame. The mail vote is disappointing. 2. The 4/4 hardcores came out early, and Reps have been catching up ever since, even in states that once looked iffy (NC, GA). 3. I see no evidence that post-USAID cuts, in the first environment where Dems are out-funded & outspent in over a decade, that we’re suddenly looking at a D+7-8 night. To secure that Democrats would need to turn out on Election Day, indies would need to break hard for them, young voters would have to be turning out, seniors would have to be closer to 2020 margins over 2024. 4. What I do see is a historically unpopular and broke Dem party, with an insurgent movement in the DSA and extreme, anti-American candidates hurting them and hurting their unity. This election is not a referendum on the party in the White House, it’s a series of 50 state elections at the same time. Indies are not uniformly breaking to create a wave, it’s going to depend, young voters will go Dem but we’re talking about the smallest generation in American history, not 15% of the electorate (as polling samples have used), and I have noticed that every move of the last two years has been geared toward two constituencies, seniors and parents. Seniors are ALWAYS VOTERS. And parents are the next closest thing, most just don’t have the time to be activists outside of school boards. Add it up and I think 2026 is going to be a shocking result for a lot of people. Even those that get their desired overall result.