Author • Historian • Political Commentator • Host of 'The David Chapman Show' • Baseball Fanatic • DM for Contact • Opinions Are My Own •
Moline, Illinois
Joined March 2015
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I will join the It's All Interesting Podcast w/ @cliffordesq again on Tuesday to discuss the election.
Last week's episode is available on the It's All Interesting YouTube Channel.
Great conversation. Please watch.
youtu.be/Lkxd6-Z-FiM?si=EfJ8…
The latest episode of The David Chapman Show has dropped.
Why I voted Republican: My Final Prediction for 2026.
youtube.com/live/5JOfZPq-r8A…
I am going live on YouTube at 6:30pm CST. Link below.
Why I voted Republican: My Final Prediction for 2026.
youtube.com/live/5JOfZPq-r8A…
I will have a new episode of The David Chapman Show out by the end of tonight.
It will be on "Why I voted Republican."
David D. Chapman retweeted
Keshel and Data Republican see two very different things happening in Texas.
Only one of these went in a schizo meltdown accusing the DOJ of setting her up to have her arrested for espionage and then teamed up with leftists like Thomas Massie
A wave always overcomes gerrymandering. No one is immune to waves. You cant hide behind partisan drawn lines.
You are focused on "230"
I am looking at the net gain.
Because democrats are already at 215. If they win 230 seats its a gain of 15 not 230.
And dems can get to 235 if they sweep toss-up races. They get passed 235 and we'll talk wave because 235 would mean they started to win seats they had no business winning.
In 2022, Republicans started with 213 seats and gained 9 seats.
We called it a red trickle.
What makes 2026 different? Why would a 15 seat net gain be a blue wave?
Because of redistricting? Because there was redistricting efforts between 2021 and the 2022 election.
This is only a net gain of 14 seats for Democrats.
This is not a wave. You can cry about redistricting but redistricting has existed longer then rock music.
A real wave overcomes partisan gerrymandering. The gerrymandering in 2008 & 2010 saved no one.
In the last 2 weeks polling in the Senate Races have shifted drastically towards Republicans.
On RCP, Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Michigan the democrat candidate's lead has fallen under 2pts.
And in Iowa, Ashley Hinson has taken the lead.
We've now reached the point where if the normal polling error happens, the Republicans will win every senate race expect North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Also, Minnesota is questionable in this scenario.
But, the normal polling error could give Republicans 53 senators.
David D. Chapman retweeted
This is just another data point that suggests that if Trump and the Republicans can turn out these uncertain voters then there’s a huge trough of them available that could literally swing the election
My Maine Senate Prediction has always been Collins by 5pts
Maine Senate:
🔴 Collins 47%
🔵 Jackson 47%
@trafalgar_group, 1,077 LV, 10/21-23
thetrafalgargroup.org/news/m…
David D. Chapman retweeted
🚨 POLITICO: Internal polling shows Republicans narrowing the gap in the Midwest, while Democrats privately warn their gains could fall short of the party’s 2018 wave.
David D. Chapman retweeted
Texas Senate Primary RCP aggregate overestimated Talarico's lead by 3.8pts and underestimated Paxton's lead by 20.7pts.
Democrat Primary
RCP Aggregate
🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10)
🔵 Crockett 42.3
Final result
🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2)
🔵 Crockett 46.2
Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts
GOP Primary Runoff
RCP Aggregate
🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7)
🔴 Cornyn 42.2
Final Result
🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6)
🔴 Cornyn 36.2
Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
David D. Chapman retweeted
Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026.
An under the radar Anthropic AI story.
The Elvis Presley Estate is suing Anthropic for copyright infringement.
Apparently, the AI company has been using Elvis Presley's music as part of their AI training.
rollingstone.com/music/music…
