Author • Historian • Political Commentator • Host of 'The David Chapman Show' • Baseball Fanatic • DM for Contact • Opinions Are My Own •

Moline, Illinois
Joined March 2015
David D. Chapman retweeted
Keshel and Data Republican see two very different things happening in Texas. Only one of these went in a schizo meltdown accusing the DOJ of setting her up to have her arrested for espionage and then teamed up with leftists like Thomas Massie
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Nine days to go. Please, Republicans—get out and vote!
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David D. Chapman retweeted
This is just another data point that suggests that if Trump and the Republicans can turn out these uncertain voters then there’s a huge trough of them available that could literally swing the election
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David D. Chapman retweeted
🚨 POLITICO: Internal polling shows Republicans narrowing the gap in the Midwest, while Democrats privately warn their gains could fall short of the party’s 2018 wave.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Texas Senate Primary RCP aggregate overestimated Talarico's lead by 3.8pts and underestimated Paxton's lead by 20.7pts. Democrat Primary RCP Aggregate 🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10) 🔵 Crockett 42.3 Final result 🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2) 🔵 Crockett 46.2 Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts GOP Primary Runoff RCP Aggregate 🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7) 🔴 Cornyn 42.2 Final Result 🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6) 🔴 Cornyn 36.2 Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Trump: "You know, presidential is very easy to do. I could get up and read this teleprompter the whole way through. I could read that shit in about 15 minutes."
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Low propensity, democrat voters need animating events like George Floyd, or hands up don’t shoot in order to feel motivated to vote.
The reason I’m leaning more toward the 2002 end of my spectrum: 1. The Dems had been crushing the mail vote in the elections that put them in the ballgame. The mail vote is disappointing. 2. The 4/4 hardcores came out early, and Reps have been catching up ever since, even in states that once looked iffy (NC, GA). 3. I see no evidence that post-USAID cuts, in the first environment where Dems are out-funded & outspent in over a decade, that we’re suddenly looking at a D+7-8 night. To secure that Democrats would need to turn out on Election Day, indies would need to break hard for them, young voters would have to be turning out, seniors would have to be closer to 2020 margins over 2024. 4. What I do see is a historically unpopular and broke Dem party, with an insurgent movement in the DSA and extreme, anti-American candidates hurting them and hurting their unity. This election is not a referendum on the party in the White House, it’s a series of 50 state elections at the same time. Indies are not uniformly breaking to create a wave, it’s going to depend, young voters will go Dem but we’re talking about the smallest generation in American history, not 15% of the electorate (as polling samples have used), and I have noticed that every move of the last two years has been geared toward two constituencies, seniors and parents. Seniors are ALWAYS VOTERS. And parents are the next closest thing, most just don’t have the time to be activists outside of school boards. Add it up and I think 2026 is going to be a shocking result for a lot of people. Even those that get their desired overall result.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Correct. People focus so much attention on the left / right direction of Gen Z and not enough attention on the baby bust that started around the Great Recession. This is a small generation that will make up a small slice of the electorate that has disproportionate influence on social media platforms.
TLDR Parties still wasting funds on polls saying 18-29 will make up 15% of the vote and rural whites won’t show up.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
I’ve invested a lot of time and energy into my data collection and reporting this cycle. If you value what I do and want access to my work, consider subscribing. Even just one month at $5 gets you through Election Day.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Final House & Generic Ballot Prediction. 🟦 D+6.5 to D+8. Democrats net gain: 8-20 seats. Note: Even a 20 seat gain for Democrats would be a historical underperformance. The average net gain for parties out of power is 26, and 36 when the President's approval is sub-50%
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David D. Chapman retweeted
My election prediction record 2016 to present. 2016: 50/50 states 2018: Predicted GOP +2 in Senate. Did not weigh in on house. 2020: 47/50 states 2022: Predicted there would not be a red wave. 2024: 50/50 states
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Why is it you never bring up midterm history for the party out of power. You act like the Dems winning the House is some kinda of anomaly. Again, you are blackpilling with intent. If as you claim are just attempting to speak the truth, you would provide context. Instead you're using words like bloodbath. You are not honest in your tweets. You're being intentionally misleading.
Rich Baris THE PEOPLE'S PUNDIT
@Peoples_PunditOct 24
Stupid person. If Republicans lose the House, the domestic agenda is OVER. Trump will be impeached AFTER Hegseth, and AFTER Corey is prosecuted. A congressman who is afraid of losing sent me your profile the other day and said, "Is this guy a man child with his backward hat?"
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David D. Chapman retweeted
The average net gain for the party out of power when the President's approval rating is sub-50% is 36 seats. Not a single election forecaster is even predicting 36 seats for Dems. In fact, the spin is "15 seats would be a wave". The truth is Dems are headed for an embarrassment by historical standards.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
In 1876, the most powerful politician in America was about to be exposed by a stack of letters, so he talked the man holding them into letting him read them, and then simply refused to give them back. His name was James G. Blaine. He was a congressman from Maine and former Speaker of the House, a magnetic speaker who people either worshipped or despised. In 1876 he was the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Years earlier, while serving as Speaker, Blaine had helped an Arkansas railroad, the Little Rock and Fort Smith, hold onto a valuable federal land grant. Not long after, he got a sweet deal selling that same railroad's bonds and earned a large commission. The bonds turned out to be close to worthless. But somehow, Blaine's investments didn't take the loss. Rumors spread that another railroad, the Union Pacific, had bought Blaine's bonds at a price far higher than they were worth. The kind of thing a railroad might do to stay friendly with a powerful congressman. Congress opened an investigation. And it found a witness. James Mulligan was a bookkeeper for a Boston businessman who'd been involved in the deals. He had a bundle of letters Blaine had written about them. Mulligan came to Washington to testify. Before he could hand the letters over, Blaine went to see him privately at his hotel. He asked to look at them. Mulligan let him. Blaine took the letters and never gave them back. Then he did something even bolder. On June 5, 1876, Blaine stood up on the floor of the House of Representatives, held up the letters, and announced he would read them to the country himself. He read them in his own order, skipped what he wanted to skip, explained each one in the best possible light, and then turned on his accusers and attacked them. The galleries went wild. His supporters called it one of the greatest performances in congressional history. A few days later, Blaine collapsed on the steps of a church in Washington. His enemies said he faked it. His friends said it was the heat and the stress. At the convention, he was nominated in a famous speech that called him a "plumed knight." He led for several ballots but lost the nomination to Rutherford B. Hayes. He didn't go away. Eight years later, in 1884, Blaine finally won the Republican nomination. Then more letters appeared. In September 1884, a new batch surfaced. In one of them, Blaine had written a letter for his old business associate to sign, clearing Blaine of any wrongdoing. At the bottom of his note, Blaine had added three words: "Burn this letter." The letter had not been burned. Democrats turned it into a rallying cry. Crowds chanted it at rallies. They called Blaine the continental liar from the state of Maine. His opponent, Grover Cleveland, had his own scandal. It had come out that Cleveland had fathered a child out of wedlock. Republicans chanted "Ma, Ma, where's my Pa?" It was one of the dirtiest campaigns in American history. It came down to New York. A week before the election, Blaine attended a meeting of ministers in New York City. One of them, a Presbyterian pastor named Samuel Burchard, called the Democrats the party of "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion." That was an insult aimed directly at Irish Catholic voters. Blaine was standing right there and didn't push back. Democrats spread it everywhere. Blaine lost New York by about 1,100 votes out of more than a million. That was the presidency. When the results came in, Democrats added a line to the chant. "Ma, Ma, where's my Pa? Gone to the White House, ha ha ha." It's called the Mulligan Letters scandal, and almost nobody learns about it.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Per NBC early voting data, Republicans have taken the lead in Texas. 2,294,284 votes have been cast in Texas. 🟥 Republicans 46% (+1) 🟦 Democrats 45% Ken Paxton is going to win.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
No its not blackpilling. Its giving an accurate read of the land. We have a much better opportunity to turn the tide while the Boomers and Gen X are the dominant voting force. It's never over, but self sabotage during our best chance is not wise. If someone has a false understanding of the situation (ie oh I just need to wait 30 years for Gen Z to become the dominate voting force) then they will make choices that work against them. If actual based individuals want to save America. You want to save America when the biggest voter groups align with you, not wait until the biggest voter groups don't align with you.
Replying to @AF_Insight
What’s the point in blackpilling like this? If there’s no point in fighting to reclaim our country we might as well all off ourselves no?
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David D. Chapman retweeted
This point by Jason is so important. There is an argument to be made that Republicans will choose to sit out this election. We can’t fully assess that yet. But we shouldn’t expect Republicans to suddenly vote for Tallarico. What I will say is that the early voting data doesn’t seem to suggest that enough Republicans will sit out to make up the difference.
That’s an awful lot of certainty about how people are going to behave in an election that hasn’t happened yet. Uncertainty deserves a place in the equation, especially when the premise depends on voters behaving differently than they have in the past. You can make a case for it, but you can hardly demand that it happen. He may well get the outcome he expects, but I suspect it will owe less to Republicans suddenly behaving unlike Republicans than to differential turnout peculiar to this election.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
U.S. President Donald Trump: "It was just revealed that Ilhan Omar’s name is not Ilhan Omar, the one she used to get elected and sworn into Congress, but rather, it’s an entirely different name, Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, and that her last name is, incredibly, also the exact name of her brother, Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, the person they said she married and had children with. When asked whether or not she married her brother, she said, “Not to my knowledge.” In other words, she somehow didn’t know? Therefore, because she used a fake name to be sworn in, I assume she must IMMEDIATELY resign from Congress. Please inform the Speaker of the House of Representatives, James Michael Johnson, that the Dumocrat Party has just conceded her seat. Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, her real name, has openly admitted to FRAUD, and she will not be legally allowed to be a Member of this August Body from this point forth. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP".
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David D. Chapman retweeted
"Not to my knowledge."
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