
$ASTS, $QS, $AUR | economics, theology, philosophy, and the UAP phenomenon | Lost access to @Defiantclient
Joined June 2025
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Replying to @RavnirX
Maybe, but I am not sure we have traded worse than the basket. Looks similar to me.
The instance where we did trade poorly was when the SpaceX-Grain news was made, unrelated to launch.
Replying to @DragonMaxGoku @petrie78676
ASTS would be able to creep into a little bit of the rural market. Keep in mind the "200 Mbps" that you are speaking of is for the entire beam, shared by all simultaneous users in the beam.
Replying to @KenBaucom
They have said they are no longer launching Starlink out of Florida but will continue some in California (for those unique orbits and inclinations). I believe the stopping of Florida Starlink is to prepare for Starlink V3 launches.
Replying to @DragonMaxGoku @petrie78676
Most of Starlink revenue is fixed broadband and AST isn't disrupting that. Amazon Leo is.
Even if they were competing services, I am not sure if SpaceX actually thinks AST is a real threat to themselves.
Replying to @Puffery69 @LPM1985
Please feel free to submit your own questions
Replying to @Puffery69 @LPM1985
Not sure but AST seems ready to start that service with a number fewer than BB25.
Replying to @DragonMaxGoku @petrie78676
I don't think SpaceX is as worried or thinks about AST as much as you think they do, but I don't know. SpaceX hubris doesn't think anyone is real competition/damaging to their business imo.
Replying to @DragonMaxGoku @petrie78676
Vulcan has been grounded for most of this year and most of their launches are already booked with Amazon.
Ariane cadence is not very high and also largely booked with Amazon.
Replying to @DragonMaxGoku @petrie78676
The Starship prep reason could be totally legitimate though.
Replying to @JR_spacetime @ulalaunch
They have two launches slated for this year, both with @AmazonLeo. However, Amazon also has 38 launches booked with Vulcan and their production cadence is stellar including having 400+ satellites ready and waiting. So I am not very optimistic on AST securing a launch with ULA...
Ben Cooper, official photographer of SpaceX, manifest: launchphotography.com/Launch…
$ASTS: This story is making the rounds so I am going to address it: floridatoday.com/story/tech/…
On October 21, SpaceX VP Kiko Dontchev stated that SpaceX has a 6 week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida, reason being for prep for Starship's debut in Florida. The 6 week gap aligns with Ben Cooper's manifest noting a "late November" launch for the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 mission, so this should be the next F9 launch being referenced by Kiko Dontchev.
What this means for @AST_SpaceMobile:
+ BB14-16 are at Astrotech integrating for launch, and will be ready to go as soon as SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch them probably in December.
+ Why did AST ship if they don't have a launch? In my view it's one or both of two reasons: (1) AST was blindsided by SpaceX's sudden pause and/or (2) AST shipped to make room at their factory
+ This 6 week gap explains AST's silence on launch date PR. Their hands are literally tied.
+ Note that this Falcon 9 pause is not unique-to-ASTS as it impacts all Falcon 9 launches out of Florida, although you could make an argument that AST's payload is really the only one being impacted by this pause. That being said, I don't know the status of other Falcon 9 payloads that may or may not be impacted. Prep for Starship is a good excuse/reason though but yes it is unfortunate that AST's launch is being impacted.
+ How AST manages the narrative from here will be key, whether they do it with an interim update now or wait for the Q3 earnings call on November 9. The best thing for us shareholders and sentiment would be if AST can signal that production is going well and batches are continuing to get done and stockpile for a more rapid launch cadence starting in December when Falcon 9 returns to operation in Florida.
--> Note that if AST's production is going well in the background, then I think this pause from SpaceX helps explain the unusual gap between BB11-13 and BB14-16. And as mentioned in bullet 3 above, this explains the weird comms from AST surrounding BB14-16 batch.
--> Astrotech should have plenty of room to accept more BlueBirds if we can ship another batch or two while we wait for SpaceX to resume F9 operations in Florida.
In adjacent/related news, our boots on the ground are reporting that more shipping containers are arriving in Midland soon, which is a positive sign for more shipments coming in the near term: xitter.cf/DanteePacheco/status/2…
Relativity Space has kept quiet since the takeover by @ericschmidt, but I'm continuing to hear anecdotal, but good things about their progress. A viable Terran R solves a lot of problems for the US commercial space industry.
Kevin Chen retweeted
Relativity Space has kept quiet since the takeover by @ericschmidt, but I'm continuing to hear anecdotal, but good things about their progress. A viable Terran R solves a lot of problems for the US commercial space industry.
Replying to @WaltLightShed
They have a commercial definitive agreement with @AST_SpaceMobile




