Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TNsNtbdfq3
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Claiming 100% certaintly on a coin flip race would be naive even if they had gotten lucky.
And this is their guess for Ireland on today's numbers.
The whole thing is clickbait nonsense.
🇧🇷 As this election campaign finally comes to an end, we can say with statistical certainty that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) will be elected the next president of the Federative Republic of Brazil tomorrow night. Bolsonaro now officially has a 100% chance of victory, compared to Lula's 0%.
(globalelectionsimulator.com) will update its final projections within the coming hours. At this point, the only uncertainty our team has is the exact margin, not the outcome. The absolute range for Flávio Bolsonaro is 50.5% to 56.2%, while Lula's is 43.8% to 49.5%.
Our final projection update will go live in a moment on the website and here shortly after. A banner will note that the projection has updated, so you will know it is official.
🌐 Global Election Simulator Research Institute
🔗 globalelectionsimulator.com
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Our projection on the latest @REDCResearch / @businessposthq poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
⭐ Fine Gael — 28
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🟢 Independent Ireland — 12
🌳 Aontú — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru
🌼 PC — 42
➡️ Ref — 34
🌹 Lab — 12
🌳 Con — 7
🌱 GP — 1
A good showing for @plaidcymru but wipe out for the @WelshLibDems
You can make your own or click 'latest poll' to see all of this in more detail on:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wale…
Here are the regional breakdowns for the biggest 3, Plaid Cymru in the West, Labour in south, Reform in the East.
Why pretend to do a Scottish or Welsh seat projection if you don't include Plaid Cymru or the SNP? All your numbers in Scotland and Wales are meaningless.
I ran it through our system which remembers that Scotland & Wales exist: Labour 49 short.
Westminster Electoral Calculus MRP, with tactical voting:
🌹 LAB: 27%
➡️ REF: 22%
🌳 CON: 19%
🔶 LDM: 9%
🌍 GRN: 8%
🦁 RES: 8%
Polling via @FindoutnowUK
With Seats:
🌹 LAB: 293 <— Short of 3
➡️ REF: 72 <— 217 Short
🌳 CON: 98 <—- 220 Short
🔶 LDM: 67
🌍 GRN: 6
🦁 RES: 1 <—- 325 Short
Our PR sims find Reform doing best under German MMP or STV.
AV isn't as good for them but there are enough Labour leads where combined Con-Ref support is enough for one of them to jump ahead.
Our Monte Carlo model, which sims the election 1000 times around the current polling average, thinks SF has a 0% chance of winning two seats here.
If their polling improves after Garvaghy it could go above 0, but this is not an obvious pick-up opportunity for them.
Fermanagh South Tyrone MP to contest Assembly seat in Belfast ift.tt/D3a6Whl
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
And at the UK level. The big variations for the Lib Dems are particularly stark.
Our Scottish Westminster projection based on the latest @moreincommonuk poll
🎗️ SNP — 25
🌹 Lab — 20
🌳 Con — 7
🔶 LD — 5
The SNP would retake the lead in seats but not by as big a margin as Labour's vote holds up in the central belt.
devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
Our model has a full 12 seats being decided by under 1%, Labour are narrowly winning most of them ahead of the SNP. All 12 are pure coin flips.
