Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TNsNtbdfq3
Joined May 2025
- Tweets666
- Following449
- Followers989
- Likes381
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Claiming 100% certaintly on a coin flip race would be naive even if they had gotten lucky.
And this is their guess for Ireland on today's numbers.
The whole thing is clickbait nonsense.
🇧🇷 As this election campaign finally comes to an end, we can say with statistical certainty that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) will be elected the next president of the Federative Republic of Brazil tomorrow night. Bolsonaro now officially has a 100% chance of victory, compared to Lula's 0%.
(globalelectionsimulator.com) will update its final projections within the coming hours. At this point, the only uncertainty our team has is the exact margin, not the outcome. The absolute range for Flávio Bolsonaro is 50.5% to 56.2%, while Lula's is 43.8% to 49.5%.
Our final projection update will go live in a moment on the website and here shortly after. A banner will note that the projection has updated, so you will know it is official.
🌐 Global Election Simulator Research Institute
🔗 globalelectionsimulator.com
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Our projection on the latest @REDCResearch / @businessposthq poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
⭐ Fine Gael — 28
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🟢 Independent Ireland — 12
🌳 Aontú — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
The 6 seat rule is the biggest issue, even Sainte-Laguë would struggle to fix it. STV or bigger lists would help.
Reform hit their polling average almost exactly, it was everyone (except YouGov) underestimating Plaid that caused the miss.
The hexagons show seats: 3/6 segments means the party is winning 3 seats, 1/6 means winning one seat.
That is odd, I'll have a dig through the data later in the week to see if it's a quirk of the logic or of it shows something underlying.
You can make your own or click 'latest poll' to see all of this in more detail on:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wale…
Here are alternative systems, STV could resurrect the Lib Dems, so would chaning to a more proportional version of AMS.
Here are the regional breakdowns for the biggest 3, Plaid Cymru in the West, Labour in south, Reform in the East.
Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru
🌼 PC — 42
➡️ Ref — 34
🌹 Lab — 12
🌳 Con — 7
🌱 GP — 1
A good showing for @plaidcymru but wipe out for the @WelshLibDems
I'm no fan of Find Out Now and their postcode lottery gambit or Electoral Calculus who validate them, but I think this monstrosity of a map comes from UKDispatch which is pure AI slop.
Because I made the Welsh bit first and genuinely hadn't noticed that the tree was different.
I'll change it tomorrow.
Why pretend to do a Scottish or Welsh seat projection if you don't include Plaid Cymru or the SNP? All your numbers in Scotland and Wales are meaningless.
I ran it through our system which remembers that Scotland & Wales exist: Labour 49 short.
Westminster Electoral Calculus MRP, with tactical voting:
🌹 LAB: 27%
➡️ REF: 22%
🌳 CON: 19%
🔶 LDM: 9%
🌍 GRN: 8%
🦁 RES: 8%
Polling via @FindoutnowUK
With Seats:
🌹 LAB: 293 <— Short of 3
➡️ REF: 72 <— 217 Short
🌳 CON: 98 <—- 220 Short
🔶 LDM: 67
🌍 GRN: 6
🦁 RES: 1 <—- 325 Short
In future please go and check if the thing you want already exists before complaining that it doesn't.
We have more than one graphic because there is more to elections than just seat winners.
If you ever visited the site you'd see that we have exactly what you're looking for, like the one attached.
You can even watch all the transfers happen.
Our PR sims find Reform doing best under German MMP or STV.
AV isn't as good for them but there are enough Labour leads where combined Con-Ref support is enough for one of them to jump ahead.
