Welcome to the Oasis of Reality! 3 Politicos, Combat Vets & Election Geeks providing bias free analysis. Over 25+ years combined campaign experience.
The Oasis of Reality
Joined May 2020
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We're giving ourselves a big ol' POB for the POTUS model this year. For a humble operation with just a few hundred subscribers & a few thousands follower across all socials... you know the Mick Foley of Forecasts... we feel like that time Mick beat The Rock on Raw. #Election2024
ElectionRecon retweeted
🚨 #CA13 Update - Stanislaus County is in, adding 1,349 votes that break 52.85%/47.15% for Democrat Adam Gray, netting him 77 votes to increase his lead over incumbent Republican John Duarte to 182 votes.
ElectionRecon retweeted
Gray (D) will net 77 votes over Duarte (R) in the impending & imminent Stanislaus Drop.
#CA13
#Election2024
ElectionRecon retweeted
New: Adam Gray (D) overtakes #CA13 Rep. John Duarte (R) by 105 votes w/ new Merced Co. ballot drop. Still way too close to call w/ a few thousand left, but a huge development for Dems.
🚨🚨🚨 #CA13 UPDATE - Democrat Adam Gray overtakes John Duarte w/Merced County's update, now leads by 105 votes
ElectionRecon retweeted
Exactly 3 weeks after election day, Adam Gray has taken the lead in #CA13 for the first time since election night, and may just hold on to it with extremely little ballots remaining to count.
🚨🚨🚨 #CA13 UPDATE - Democrat Adam Gray overtakes John Duarte w/Merced County's update, now leads by 105 votes
ElectionRecon retweeted
#CA45 Republican Michelle Steel's uninterrupted streak of losing the post-election day vote updates continues, with Orange County's update adding 612 votes that break 52%/48% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him 24 votes and increasing his lead to 613 votes.
ElectionRecon retweeted
#CD13 Update
50.05% - 102,653 - John Duarte (R)
49.95% - 102,446 - Adam Gray (D)
ElectionRecon retweeted
John Duarte and Adam Gray are separated by 201 votes after today's updates in a race that won't be called until 2027 at this rate of counting
ElectionRecon retweeted
After tonight's updates, California is likely down to ~228,000 unprocessed ballots. Counties w/the most remaining:
24,846 SLO(w)
21,906 Orange
19,700 LA
17,450 San Bernardino
16,050 Sacramento
14,063 Shasta
12,000 San Diego
10,767 Lake
9,500 Riverside
9,104 San Joaquin
ElectionRecon retweeted
Today was a general wash in my book. It remains tilt Duarte (R) by the most slimiest of margins in my book, and I mean S-L-I-M.
#CA13
OUR TAKE: We disagree. Tonight was a slight miss for Gray (D), (pending what we expect to be a negligible SJ county drop), just like last night was a slight miss for him, after a major win for Gray on Tuesday.
This one remains tilt Duarte (R) for us.
ElectionRecon retweeted
#CD13 Update
50.05% - 102,105 - John Duarte (R)
49.95% - 101,885 - Adam Gray (D)
ElectionRecon retweeted
#SD37 Update
50.71% - 229,426 - Steven 'Steve' Choi (R)
49.29% - 223,041 - Josh Newman (D)
ElectionRecon retweeted
House Republicans will likely fall short of the 222 seats they got in 2022 but their winning margin was more "comfortable" this time around: Tipping point seat PA-07 (R +1.05) vs the 0.69% margin in IA-03, 2022's tipping point.
ElectionRecon retweeted
#CA45 Update - Orange County's update adds 1,461 votes that break 52.8%/47.2% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him another 83 votes and increasing his lead over incumbent Republican Michelle Steel to 397 votes.
ElectionRecon retweeted
🚨 #CA13 Update - San Joaquin County, the bluest portion of the district, posts a small update of 45 votes that incumbent Republican John Duarte wins 53.3%/46.7%, sending his lead rocketing by an additional 3 votes from 348 votes to 351 votes.
ElectionRecon retweeted
#AD58 Update - Riverside County adds another 1,515 votes that only narrowly break for Democrat Clarissa Cervantes 50.2%/49.8%, trimming Republican Leticia Castillo's lead by 7 votes down to 479 votes.
ElectionRecon retweeted
