ESG Orphan

My two cents from yesterday’s Kevin Warsh event: Mentioned inflation > 5x. Said “strong” > 2x. “Prices” including energy & px stability > 4x. During the presser, it sounded more hawk than dove (per usual for him.) At the time the mkt didn’t react. In the shoulda, coulda, woulda world I thought about shorting QQQ. But didn’t. (To know and not act is not to know!) Sure enough Google bombed, NOW too, and I hate reacting after my initial instinct was right, but thinking about a toe dip here leaning on this. My reasoning: after next week, a lot of the guard rails are removed. Current administration, take your pick at the bloviator but OMO (mkt/mouth) loses its luster here. There’s far less reason after the election. In addition, trends that have persisted for the first 10 months are unlikely to end in the final two. Anyone who watches markets historically, count me in that group, knows if a market goes one way for 10 months of the year, odds favor it continuing into the end of the year. People get fed up with their positions that haven’t worked, that’s why tax loss selling is a real thing Gold, Silver, metal miners have been mostly for sale this year Ironically, it started when Kevin Warsh was appointed in Jan. That brings me full circle. Little Warsh said yesterday was dovish. And unfortunately, the entire market is hoping and praying for that. That’s the free, easy money (leverage) addled. With the political shackles removed, and Kevin Warsh still who he is, it’s not silly to raise cash for the next two months, keep some dry powder. I’m in some commodity related, focused on energy, I don’t think the Iran situation ends anytime soon, and who knows what Donald Trump will do now that scorched earth potentially is here and his DGAF meter just spiked again. What’s he care? He’s got two years left in his cash grab. In a parallel corollary, Microsoft is laying off 60,000 and they’re at the same time is issuing 25 billion in debt. If that isn’t the epitome of the AI bubbly garbage we are seeing, I don’t know what is. AI won’t affect workers or the economy drastically as Microsoft fires everybody and raises more money for the AI circle jerk. I know enough to know I’ve seen too much. Tread carefully. Hope is not strategy. @gnoble79 @DougKass @TgMacro @lighthousejerry @dailydirtnap @ArturoVandelayI @davevermilion @tomkeene

What’s giving me the most wonder right now is the divergence between Dow theory and everything else. DIA touched 6 week high today, broke above downtrend line earlier this week, now two days above the 50 day. IYT, a massive bullish engulfing candle today. In fact, it engulfed a lot of the past five sessions. It is knocking on the door of the 200 day MA. Compare that to the mag 7 and AI bubble vision. Coreweave new lows. Nvidia same. MU same. Someone asked me about AMD: at 20x sales JFC what are we even talking about? Notice bonds going up because equities are scaring people. Got to hand it to the Economist recent cover asking if Bonds were crashing. Straight up since. I know for sure that in two weeks, electioneering ends. No more need for OMO from the administration, currencies, energy, or bonds. Are precious metals gonna be for sale in the final two months? They sure have for the past 9 more or less since January. Does the Trump administration embark on scorched earth? Given that they’ll be lame ducks? I’ve heard so many strategies say get bullish for the year end. I’m not so sure. The Dow theorist are bullish, the bubble participants are in hope and pray mode. Choose your fighter. @gnoble79 @agnostoxxx @davevermilion @JackFarley96 @ArturoVandelayI @lighthousejerry @DougKass @dailydirtnap @TgMacro

Help me out in understanding… Say no to drugs, unless of course, they’re our designer drugs. GLP1s are the new drug of choice. Discipline in a pill. Nothing but good things. Dana Telsey just said those drug drugs are a consumer stimulant. New clothes, new treatment treatments, going out to dinner again. That drug has served its purpose. Got everyone consuming like everything‘s fine. Their obesity is no longer an issue because we have drugs pretending that their consumption was a healthy thing. So it’s a good thing. These GLP1s are stimulating consumer again and masking unhealthy lifestyles. Mission accomplished

Two months ago, I challenged @rabois on $open and the disconnect between the bullish rhetoric and the lack of insider buying. He pushed back. Two months later, his stock is down 30%. Here’s the original exchange, with time stamps. That’s what we call receipts.

The one thing I’ll say about today’s action: I don’t know how many people had this on their bingo card. And if they don’t turn them around in the next 30 minutes, call it “the 2:30 shuffle” as I used to all the time, it’s gonna be an ugly close. Think Newton‘s first law. They better bounce this market soon. That’s all I’m saying. @gnoble79 @davevermilion @ArturoVandelayI @DougKass @TgMacro @dailydirtnap

Starts with a D. And there is definitely a greater all for one team spirit this year. I’m not saying that Bread prevented team chemistry from developing, but you can be darn sure there was a lot of fancy skating and East West going on. We’ve seen a lot of north south in the first handful of games. I like it. We are a little quicker and I think a little younger. We are making it hard to play against us. The one thing I noticed too is in the D zone, it’s a five man unit protect protecting the house. We didn’t see that consistently last year. Our second D pairing is making a very strong showing thus far.

Posted this in May, when 3% of fund managers saw crude above $100. Wrote about it plus some calls that didn’t work: levelwiththemarkets.substack…

Two of my recent calls lost. I cut them. One from May paid. Only 3% of fund managers saw crude above $100. I took the other side. Being early is the same as being wrong. Being right on the wrong timeline costs just as much. Thirty years of both kinds; keeping it intellectually honest.

@gnoble79 Masa Son, SoftBank, now one of, if not THE top issuers of $ denominated junk bonds globally for AI. Mr. We Work sugar daddy. Mr. “YHOO going to infinity,” during the 1999 SPX inclusion. Nothing to see here, folks. @davevermilion @agnostoxxx @lighthousejerry @DougKass @CNBC @TgMacro @dailydirtnap @JackFarley96

In late January, they appointed Kevin Warsh. Since then, UUP +7.75%, GLD -20.75%, TLT -8.17% The market is telling us so much more than most of the “pundits” are. Kevin Warsh is not a boomer. He’s a Gen X guy. Few.

I was in LV in May, start of a family trip to the southwest. Amazing btw. The SW, less so LV, but whatever. Heard recently some poolside blackjack tables now offer 3/2 on blackjack vs 6/5. Red Rock Casino. Speaks loudly. As an aside, longer-term there’s gonna be a water issue in Vegas. Everyone knows it.

I look at a lot of charts. There are very few that look appealing at this point. Interesting I noted that DE is at an all-time high. Ironically CAT has not appreciated quite like DE has. As I said, I look at a lot of charts

A reason why I love candlestick charts: Colors. I use red and green for my candles. Green = close > open. Bull. Red = open > close. Bear. Pull up any chart, any timeframe. What color do you see? Immediate bull/bear tinge. Consecutive recent sessions: DIA 26 red, 8 green. IYT 31 red, 16 green. RSP 13 red, 5 green. XLF 10 red, 1 green. When you combine these with other technical indicators, moving averages, or RSI, or basic support/resistance, you get a good feel Breadth has been chronic halitosis bad in the market. I know sentiment is in the dumps But the technicals do not speak bullish right now. And we know the mag seven can hold up the log jam given their weight versus the market. I continue to wonder if suspended disbelief can be maintained through the election. The technicals suggest that this Herculean task will be bigger in the next five weeks, if that’s even possible. @gnoble79 @davevermilion @lighthousejerry @agnostoxxx @TgMacro @ArturoVandelayI @DougKass

Wrote about "Thinking in Bets," the poker table at Susquehanna, and what all of it has to do with a Treasury Secretary telling a room in Texas he's the house. Technician's read on META at the bottom too. Exhaustion, then a bearish engulfing candle that trapped two days of longs. levelwiththemarkets.substack…