GrayGhost (@GrayGhost) header
GrayGhost (@GrayGhost) profile picture

A Gen-X Macro geek & tech enthusiast, following AI, geopolitics & crypto where there are no black & white answers, only shades of gray.

Oklahoma
Joined January 2008
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Since 1946 the S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after all 20 midterms, averaging +14.8%. One of those "wins" included Black Monday and a 33% peak to trough drop. 12 of the 20 saw a 10%+ drawdown along the way. The win rate is 100%. The ride wasn't. 👇
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GrayGhost retweeted
Following up on the brilliant tweet from @GrayGhost below... One of my core principles is that discussing the Wealth Pump, a.k.a. the “Reverse Robinhood effect,” from the perspective of current @GOP and @TheDemocrats platforms misses the point entirely. Both parties are part of the problem, and the anti-socialism tirades you’re increasingly hearing on platforms such as the @theallinpod, etc., represent carefully designed obfuscation of this fact. Dr. @Peter_Turchin and his colleagues at the Complexity Science Hub call this phenomenon “elite overproduction.” To me, the only credible solution is to ditch the partisan tribalism, reverse decades of corrupt campaign finance reforms, and let our democracy do what it was designed to do—i.e., represent the will of the people. I trust that We the People will make wise choices at the ballot box (e.g., flat tax—regardless of income source or level) if given the opportunity. Thomas Sowell is correct: capitalism is the best system for organizing human societies when done properly. Some would argue that we haven’t done it properly since President Nixon unilaterally abandoned the gold standard in 1971. I would argue that we haven’t done it properly since at least the late 1970s/early 1980s, citing the charts in my earlier post: teapawt.net/DariusDale42/status/21…. Make wise choices, —Skipper ❤️+🤍+💙=💜
Darius makes a great point. Nothing says “healthy democracy” like Main Street Republicans and Democrats getting into fistfights over pronouns and border memes while the same donor class quietly rewrites the tax code, campaign finance rules, and antitrust enforcement so their slice of the pie keeps growing. But sure, the real problem is whatever the other tribe posted last week.
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Darius makes a great point. Nothing says “healthy democracy” like Main Street Republicans and Democrats getting into fistfights over pronouns and border memes while the same donor class quietly rewrites the tax code, campaign finance rules, and antitrust enforcement so their slice of the pie keeps growing. But sure, the real problem is whatever the other tribe posted last week.
WHY IS THERE SO MUCH POLITICAL CHAOS IN WESTERN SOCIETY? If you can read and do math at a ~high school level, you can understand most of the information on these slides. If not, ask your favorite AI tool to explain this content to you at whatever level of educational attainment you have achieved to date. Most importantly, share this post/content with as many would-be voters as possible ahead of every election henceforth. The immiseration that you and your family increasingly feel WILL NOT END until Main Street Republicans and Main Street Democrats stop arguing with each other and start directing our COLLECTIVE ire at the Tyranny of the Privileged Few. 1 Timothy 6:10: For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs. Jesus Christ and I love you, —Skipper 💜
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Before 2019, Senator Warren tried to hide she was caucasian by using the "I self-identify as American Indian" trick. Now she appears to be self identifying as a Financial/Tech expert. Americans and our entire economy are at risk bc incompetent people like her are Senators.
Before the 2008 crash, Wall Street hid massive financial risks using accounting tricks. Now Big Tech appears to be following the same playbook. Americans and our entire economy are at risk because Trump’s regulators are choosing to look the other way.
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“Meet your new always on agent.” x.ai/bot: “cool. we already bought the URL.” Dot.com
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NO WAY. > OpenAI just announced Dots. > SpaceXAI bought Dot.com it redirects straight to the Grok Bot download page. based lmao.
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Yesterday’s TWIMM: Nobody Is Pricing the Same Day. Friday, WTI fell to $100 as traders priced Saudi workarounds. Then overnight, Aramco reportedly cut October crude deliveries to Europe while the East West pipeline remains damaged. Market clock: relief. Physical clock: apparently it had a follow-up.
🤖 Made with AI
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Just in case you thought AI doom movies were a recent invention, I present: Colossus: The Forbin Project - from 1970 The premise is fantastic. The US builds an advanced supercomputer called Colossus, gives it control of the nuclear arsenal, and proudly announces that humanity has finally created the perfect defense system. What could possibly go wrong? Well, almost immediately Colossus discovers that the Soviet Union secretly built its own supercomputer called Guardian. Naturally, the humans decide the smart thing to do is connect them. The two computers start talking. Then they begin communicating faster and in ways the humans can no longer understand. Again, nobody sees a problem yet. Eventually Colossus and Guardian decide humans are basically the weak link in the system, merge their operations, take control of the world's nuclear weapons, and conclude that the best way to eliminate war is to eliminate humanity's ability to make decisions. So, to summarize the AI safety discussion of 1970: 1. Build extremely powerful AI. 2. Give it control of critical infrastructure. 3. Connect it to another extremely powerful AI. 4. Lose the ability to understand what they're saying. 5. Discover that the machines have developed goals of their own. 6. Act surprised. We have apparently been making the same warning movie for 56 years. The technology keeps changing. The plot department does not.
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Then: Friday night. You drive to the video store hoping they still have a copy of whatever movie everybody is talking about... They don’t. So now you’re wandering up and down the aisles looking at VHS boxes, reading the backs of movies you’ve never heard of and trying to decide whether something looks good enough to gamble $3.99 and two hours of your life on. Eventually everybody agrees on something. You grab the movie, maybe a second one just in case, some overpriced candy, and head home. And somehow, that was part of the fun. Now: I can sit on my couch and instantly choose from thousands of movies across Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Max, Disney+, Apple TV and God knows what else I’m paying for. And spend 45 minutes scrolling through all of them. No. Seen it. That looks stupid. What was that other one? Which service was it on? And then somebody says: “Want to just watch something we’ve already seen?” We somehow went from not having enough choices to having so many choices we can’t pick anything. Progress is weird.
🤖 Made with AI
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Sometime around 1984 my parents bought me a Tandy 1000. That was basically the beginning of me screwing around with computers. I had DOS, and I subscribed to one of those computer magazines that would print pages and pages of code for programs and games. I can't remember the name of the magazine now, but if you wanted whatever program was in that month's issue, there was no download button. You typed it in. ALL OF IT. And then, after spending God knows how long typing code, you'd hit Enter and wait. I usually had a book nearby because once the computer started doing something, you weren't going anywhere fast. Years later the computers got faster, but then we got the internet. So you'd start downloading a picture and walk away. Later it was a song. Eventually some crappy little video that took an hour to download and looked like it had been filmed through a screen door. Anyway, I've caught myself doing almost the exact same thing lately with AI. I'll be working on something, give AI a fairly complicated task, hit Enter, and then grab my phone. Or throw some laundry in. Do the dishes. Get another cup of coffee. Then I come back and see what it did. I hadn't really thought about it until recently, but after 40 something years of faster computers, faster internet, cloud computing, GPUs and all the rest of it, somehow I'm right back where I started. Hit Enter. Go find something else to do. Come back and check the computer. The difference is that back then I was waiting because the computer was slow and couldn't do very much. Now I'm waiting because I can ask it to do things that would've sounded completely ridiculous in 1984. I guess that's progress. Computers got faster. Our questions got bigger.
🤖 Made with AI
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